分布式防空C3I系统面向对象建模方法

采用面向对象的建模思想,把分布式防空C3I系统的各个组成部分抽象成对象,从时间、空间和功能的角度对分布式防空C3I系统进行了描述.通过确定对象类、类的属性、操作及类之间的关系而建立了分布式防空C3I系统的对象模型;通过对系统状态转换的分析,建立了分布式防空C3I系统动态模型;通过对系统功能模型的分布,利用层次数据流图建立了分布式防空C3I系统功能模型.     

调度感知同步数据流建模

对流应用系统进行吞吐量分析需要将周期静态顺序调度建模到数据流图中,吞吐量分析效率依赖于数据流图的规模及建模时间。为了提高吞吐量分析效率,提出基于同构同步数据流图的调度感知同步数据流模型及相应建模方法。通过利用应用模型结构特征及周期静态顺序调度,可减少模型中的任务、边和初始符号数目;可以使用已有分析方法对模型进行吞吐量分析。实验结果表明,所提建模方法优于已有方法,可有效提高吞吐量分析效率。     

一种不精确推理模型与模糊关系代数

提出一种不精确推理的模型以及模糊关系代数,定义了模糊集合的并、交、差和笛卡尔积等运算,从而对非精确数据及知识描述中不确定性进行有效地处理。     

技术成熟度多维评估模型研究

技术成熟度直接关系到武器装备的研制和应用。针对技术成熟度评估存在过度依赖专家智慧、操作周期长、费用高;指标单一、可信度缺乏;数据难以获取、评价方法难度较大等问题,研究了技术发展与技术对应文献关系,提出了基于技术分解结构构建技术成熟度多维评估模型,分析了基于S曲线知识图谱划分技术成熟度等级,并以航母电磁弹射器技术为例进行模型验证。研究表明,技术成熟度多维评估模型具有客观、简便、费用低、易操作等特点,可以与TRL互为补充。     

数据流分析

介绍了数据流测试的几个相关概念,分析了汇编语言和高级语言C中哪些定值-引用关系可以静态确定,哪些必须动态确定,并提出了实现数据流分析的方法.     

基于多目标问题的装备维修保障资源调度研究

针对战时装备维修保障资源调度面临维修保障资源需求量不确定、调度时间不确定、调度路径可靠性不确定的问题,通过引入三角模糊数,将不确定信息量化,构建了以维修保障资源调度时间最短、维修保障资源调度路径可靠性最高和维修保障资源调度成本最小为目标的多目标调度模型,并给出了确定各目标相对重要度的方法,然后通过极大极小法将多目标模型转换为单目标模型,并结合LINGO软件对模型进行求解得出维修保障资源的最优调度方案。最后,引入算例进行了分析计算,结果证明了该模型的有效性,对于战时开展装备维修保障资源调度具有一定参考价值。     

数据流模型机SDS-l 的实现

文中全面地介绍了数据流模型机SDS-1的特点和实现方法。SDS-1模型机是一种同步和异步相结合、数据流和控制流相结合的数据流模型机,它能开发复合函数级的并行性。该模型机在Intel86/310微机和8个Intel86/12单板机组成的多机系统上实现,达到了80年代初国际先进水平。     

保障时间不确定情况下的舰载机航保资源调度

航空母舰舰载机保障环境多变,导致航保资源的保障时间不确定,采用区间数的方法表示保障时间,建立了基于保障时间为区间数的调度模型。根据问题的特点,定义了4种区间数排序规则,并且在模型求解时,直接采用区间数计算。针对调度模型,提出了一种改进的差分进化算法,采用短用时和负载均衡策略以及随机生成的方法初始化编码,解码采取活动调度,改进变异规则,最后通过实验验证了模型和算法的正确性及有效性。     

四元数在火控中的应用

介绍了四元数的定义、代数运算、三角形式和指数形式以及球面表示形式;综述了四元数在刚体姿态控制,计算机三维图像旋转,彩色图像处理和信号处理分析等实际应用中表示的物理含义,着重探讨了四元数理论在火控领域中应用方法,并对比传统欧拉角火控模型,分析了应用四元数火控模型的优点。最后从理论上得出,四元数理论方法在常规兵器火控系统有广阔的应用前景。     

关系数据语义集成中的查询语言转换方法研究

为解决关系数据语义集成中语义查询语言和关系模型查询语言的转换问题,定义了SPARQL(Simple Protocol And Rdf Query Language)图模式的关系代数和五种基本运算的查询语义,给出了该关系代数与SQL语句之间的对应关系,在此基础上,提出了SPARQL到SQL的查询转换算法,并通过实例进行了说明。     

Stochastic call center staffing with uncertain arrival,service and abandonment rates: A Bayesian perspective

In this article, we introduce staffing strategies for the Erlang‐A queuing system in call center operations with uncertain arrival, service, and abandonment rates. In doing so, we model the system rates using gamma distributions that create randomness in operating characteristics used in the optimization formulation. We divide the day into discrete time intervals where a simulation based stochastic programming method is used to determine staffing levels. More specifically, we develop a model to select the optimal number of agents required for a given time interval by minimizing an expected cost function, which consists of agent and abandonment (opportunity) costs, while considering the service quality requirements such as the delay probability. The objective function as well as the constraints in our formulation are random variables. The novelty of our approach is to introduce a solution method for the staffing of an operation where all three system rates (arrival, service, and abandonment) are random variables. We illustrate the use of the proposed model using both real and simulated call center data. In addition, we provide solution comparisons across different formulations, consider a dynamic extension, and discuss sensitivity implications of changing constraint upper bounds as well as prior hyper‐parameters. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 460–478, 2016     

常规导弹战前运输任务优化模型

制定常规导弹战前运输计划时,各车辆运输时间和运输路线的安排是一个组合优化问题.运用军事运筹学和不确定性优化理论,充分考虑节点冲突性、车辆隐蔽性、任务时间、道路容量等因素,建立了运输任务方案的优化模型.该研究为常规导弹波次作战计划的制定和优化提供模型支持,有助于提高常规导弹作战指挥自动化和部队的生存能力.     

基于直觉模糊时间Petri网的不确定性时间推理方法

针对Petri网模型在对复杂不确定性时间信息描述和推理方面的局限性,在定义直觉模糊时间函数以及网络变迁约减规则的基础上,融合直觉模糊时序逻辑(IFTL)、直觉模糊Petri网(IFPN)以及线性逻辑推理的理论优势,构建了直觉模糊时间Petri网(IFTPN)推理模型,并提出了基于IFTPN的不确定性时间推理算法,较好地解决了态势评估中冲突事件间的不确定性时间推理问题。最后,通过典型的战场想定验证了该时间推理方法的有效性和优越性。     

空陆攻防博弈的动态武器目标分配

大规模作战具有高动态、非完全信息和不确定性，在分析归纳目前解决动态武器目标分配问题的一系列方法的基础上，尝试构建基于双方动态博弈的攻防对抗综合数学模型，并利用纳什均衡和帕累托最优算法进行分阶段求解。结果表明，该数学模型和博弈论方法结合能够有效解决武器目标动态分配问题。     

带横向射流的绕后台阶超音速外流场的数值模拟

将一股射流喷入超音速外流是飞行器飞行控制的常用方法。本文通过应用MacCormack 显格式和Ba(?)dwin-Lomax 代数湍流模型求解二维可压缩的RANS 方程,对带横向射流的绕后台阶的超音速外流场进行了数值模拟,并给出了流场的速度向量图、等压线图和等马赫线图。与无喷射的情形相比,台阶底部压力增加了一倍左右。     

AUV纵倾角动态面滑模自适应控制

对于自主水下机器人(AUV)纵倾角跟踪问题,提出一种基于动态面滑模思想的自适应控制方法。首先对自治水下机器人纵倾角运动模型进行简化,其次针对不确定外干扰的情况,设计了自适应规律,对外干扰进行估计,在此基础之上设计了动态面滑模自适应控制器,并通过李雅普诺夫稳定性理论证明了系统的稳定性,最后通过给定参数的仿真实验结果可知,所设计的控制器在系统受到不确定外干扰时,表现出良好的鲁棒性。     

Balancing a one‐way corridor capacity and safety‐oriented reliability: A stochastic optimization approach for metro train timetabling

In urban rail transit systems of large cities, the headway and following distance of successive trains have been compressed as much as possible to enhance the corridor capacity to satisfy extremely high passenger demand during peak hours. To prevent train collisions and ensure the safety of trains, a safe following distance of trains must be maintained. However, this requirement is subject to a series of complex factors, such as the uncertain train braking performance, train communication delay, and driver reaction time. In this paper, we propose a unified mathematical framework to analyze the safety‐oriented reliability of metro train timetables with different corridor capacities, that is, the train traffic density, and determine the most reliable train timetable for metro lines in an uncertain environment. By employing a space‐time network representation in the formulations, the reliability‐based train timetabling problem is formulated as a nonlinear stochastic programming model, in which we use 0‐1 variables to denote the time‐dependent velocity and position of all involved trains. Several reformulation techniques are developed to obtain an equivalent mixed integer programming model with quadratic constraints (MIQCP) that can be solved to optimality by some commercial solvers. To improve the computational efficiency of the MIQCP model, we develop a dual decomposition solution framework that decomposes the primal problem into several sets of subproblems by dualizing the coupling constraints across different samples. An exact dynamic programming combined with search space reduction strategies is also developed to solve the exact optimal solutions of these subproblems. Two sets of numerical experiments, which involve a relatively small‐scale case and a real‐world instance based on the operation data of the Beijing subway Changping Line are implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

不确定失效阈值影响下考虑设备剩余寿命预测信息的最优替换策略

为了进一步提升设备维修决策的科学性,通过建立综合设备剩余寿命预测数据与不确定失效阈值的最优维修决策模型,实现了不可维修设备的最优替换策略。构建基于非线性Wiener过程的设备性能退化模型,并采用极大似然法估计退化模型参数;提出一种基于期望最大(Expectation Maximization, EM)算法的不确定失效阈值分布系数估计方法,通过引入虚拟失效阈值数据实现对失效阈值分布系数的同步迭代更新;基于首达时的概念推导出不确定失效阈值条件下设备剩余寿命的概率密度函数,并基于更新报酬理论建立维修决策模型,从而实现设备的最优维修决策。算例分析表明,设备的失效阈值会对维修决策结果产生重要影响,考虑设备失效阈值的不确定性既有助于提升剩余寿命预测的准确性,又可以有效降低设备的寿命周期费用。