Defense Spending and Unemployment in France

France has received little attention in the literature of defense economics, despite some outstanding features of the country’s situation. This study attempts to partially fill this gap with new empirical evidence which evaluates the influence of military expenditure on the unemployment rate between 1975 and 2008. Our estimation is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration. The results reveal that both defense and non-defense spending exert a negative influence on unemployment but that defense spending has a higher negative impact.     

Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence from the Arab Gulf Region

The present paper investigates the causal relationship between defense spending and economic growth in six Gulf countries for the period 1975-1998. I use Granger-causality test within a multivariate error-correction framework to explore the existence and direction of causality between these two variables. The empirical results indicate that neither growth nor defense can be considered exogenous and that the relationship between them cannot be generalized across countries. Two implications can be derived from these findings. One is the need for more studies, especially from developing countries, using time-series data. The other is that decisions on defense spending should be based on each country's socio-economic circumstances. Given the small sample size, however, caution is advised in considering the above results and their implications as final.     

Property distribution and configurations of sovereign states: A rational economic model

A nation's wealth is both an object of conquest to covetous aggressors and a resource to its owners for self defense. To maintain autonomy every country must mount a defense which either makes its capture (1) more expensive than any aggressor can afford, or (2) more expensive than it is worth to aggressors. Whether this condition can be satisfied for all countries simultaneously depends as shown in this paper on relative efficacy of military offense versus defense, the aggregate of wealth among nations and its distribution, and the benefits a conqueror may obtain from conquest, including the duration of these benefits. The paper shows how these factors fit together to determine the sustainability and stability of the international distribution of property as embodied in the configuration of sovereign states.     

Does Health Spending Crowd out Defense in the United States? Evidence from Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the association between defense and health spending using multi-resolution analysis incorporating the structural change model. Our empirical results suggested that a negative correlation between defense and health spending persists over the entire period of 1941–2013 in the very long-run (over 16 years cycle), but there is a change in correlation between defense and health spending in the short-run (2–4 years cycle), medium-run (4–8 years cycle), and long-run (8–16 years cycle) during the same period. In particular, there appears to have been a trade-off relationship between defense and health spending during the ex-Korean War period, but there was a complementary relationship between defense and health spending during the post-Korean War period. The crowding-out effect of health spending on defense spending during the period when the Affordable Care Act was put into effect relies on the strength of the positive correlation in the long-run (8–16 years cycle) and negative correlation in the short-run (2–4 years cycle) and very long-run (over 16 years cycle).     

Research communication security in the 90s: A view from the UK

This paper develops a methodology for measuring the capital value of military assets in monetary terms. We distinguish between two military capital measures. One measure, called the value of military capital (services) summarizes the value of military defense assets during a particular year. A comparison of the capital‐services value of U.S. and Soviet tactical combat aircraft is provided for the period 1970–1984.

One feature of the capital‐services measure that makes it particularly interesting is that its size can be compared with such military expenditures as operating and support. While these latter expenditures reflect the readiness of a defense establishment, the relevant capital‐services measure reflects force structure and modernization.

A second measure, called the value of military capital (wealth), summarizes the military benefits obtained from defense assets over the remainder of their service lives. This measure depreciates the capital as it ages, and is useful for comparing military wealth with other types of wealth in the economy. We provide this measure for the U.S. military capital stock for 1925–1984.     

Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model

This paper employs both linear and non‐linear models to investigate the relationship between national defense spending and economic growth for Taiwan and China. Using data from 1953–2000 on defense spending, GDP, import, export and capital, we find that China's defense spending leads that of Taiwan. There exists the phenomenon of an arms race between both countries when official Chinese data are used. On the one hand, feedback relations prevail between economic growth and defense spending growth in Taiwan. On the other hand, China's national defense is found to lead economic growth.     

An historical review of US defense strategy from Vietnam to operation Iraqi freedom

Facing nearly half a billion dollars in spending cuts over the next five years, US defense planners and strategists must simultaneously rebuild a war-weary Army weakened from over a decade of war, build new sea and air capabilities for the Pacific theater, and reduce manpower, procurement, and contractor budgets while promoting innovation. The US defense department is embarking on what may be the most sweeping period of defense transformation in recent memory. This article reviews the history of American defense transformation, focusing on an important but largely overlooked period of military innovation that began in the shadow of Vietnam and ended with troops fighting through blinding sandstorms at night on the road to Baghdad. The multifaceted transformation strategy conceived in the 1970s paved the way for a military revolution in the 1990s and enabled unprecedented battlefield adaptation in the 2000s. After reviewing the revolutionary changes that led to American dominance in conventional warfare in the 1990s, the article examines US transformation policies in the 2000s to inform defense strategy and planning efforts in the 2010s.     

Revisiting the Defense–Growth nexus in European countries

This study revisits the long run and dynamic causal linkages between defense spending and economic growth in 15 selected European countries for the period 1988–2010 by utilizing recent developments in non-stationary panel data analysis. To this end, the series properties of per capita defense spending, per capita real capita stocks, and per capita real GDP are investigated by the panel unit root tests with and without breaks that support evidence on unit root. The panel cointegration tests with and without breaks are also subsequently employed to investigate whether there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these three variables. Finally, our causality analysis from panel vector error-correction model suggests that there is a feedback relation between real capital stock and real GDP in both short and long run, a one-way Granger causality running from real GDP to defense spending in both short and long run, and defense spending only Granger causes real capital stock in the long run.     

A non‐linear defence‐growth nexus? evidence from the US economy

The defense‐growth nexus is investigated empirically using time series data for the US and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be non‐linear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level‐dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: the positive externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively lower levels of defense spending (with respect to the history of defense spending in the US) and reverts its influence for higher levels.     

Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in the United States--Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

This paper provides new evidence on the question of the effects of defense spending on aggregate output in the United States. Earlier studies of this basic issue relied on traditional econometric techniques and the neoclassical production function theory. In this paper, recently developed cointegration methodology and modeling that is inspired by new macroeconomic theory is employed. The results from earlier studies concerning the effects of defense spending are mixed. The findings presented in this paper reveal that there is a quantitatively important and positive relation between defense spending and aggregate output in the United States.     

The correlates of transatlantic burden sharing: revising the agenda for theoretical and policy analysis

While recent work has attempted to update the research agenda for transatiantic defense burden-sharing, there remain significant gaps between the public choice defense economics literature and the security studies literature. The presence of such a gap is unfortunate, because defense spending choices are likely shaped by factors identified by the public choice literature, as well as the strategic and cultural variables that the security studies literature tends to focus on, as well as domestic macroeconomic factors. The independent variables identified in recent qualitative literature are extremely useful analytically, and, fortunately, they have reasonable proxies in available quantitative data, which enables scholars to study them across large groups of countries and many years. This article builds upon such work to synthesize the most notable of the factors identified in the current literature, and offers some common analytical ground that will benefit both scholars and practitioners..     

National security,military spending and the business cycle

This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model where national security is an argument in the agent’s utility function and the government chooses optimally the level of military spending to maximize social welfare. National defense depends on military expenditure and on the strategic environment reflecting a potential hostile external threat. We use aggregate data on consumption, investment, and military spending for the US economy to estimate the parameters of the model. Estimation results suggest that consumption and national defense are complements and that military spending variability is mainly explained by external threat shocks although it also depends on the macroeconomic conditions. We compute impulse response functions of the main macroeconomic variables to several shocks: a total factor productivity shock, a defense technology shock, and a strategic environment shock. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal response to an increase in the external threat (a worsening in the strategic environment) will rise output by reducing consumption and increasing investment.     

The impact of defense and non‐defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America∗

For a three‐sector Feder‐Ram framework, we present time‐series, cross‐sectional estimates for two cohorts, consisting of Asian and Latin American countries. The estimates indicate that private investment, and defense and non‐defense public spending are growth promoting for alternative error components representations. For the best error components representation, greater growth enhancement is associated with the two forms of public spending in Asia than in Latin America, while the opposite comparison characterizes private investment. Although defense is growth promoting, an opportunity cost exists insofar as non‐defense spending, financed by defense spending, appears to give a small net boost to growth in Latin America.     

The Shifting Determinants of Defense Spending Preferences Between 1980 and 2008

This paper analyzes defense spending preferences using ordered logit regression analysis of American National Election Survey data from 1980 through 2008. Our results indicate that as opposed to having the ideology of isolationism, political party identification towards the Republican Party or having economic stakes in defense spending always play a significant role in increased preference towards defense spending. Demographic groups such as Native Americans, Hispanics, and retired women, a demographic subgroup, display generally positive preferences towards defense spending. Somewhat surprisingly, another demographic subgroup, ‘security moms,’ do not show a preference. Our analysis also displays lower (higher) preference in the early 1990s (2000s) for defense spending compared to the year 2008.     

弹炮结合防空武器系统机动生存能力模型研究

从弹炮结合防空武器系统通过机动作战提高生存能力的角度出发,结合防空武器系统机动作战过程中的战术背景,提取了该过程中决定防空武器系统生存能力的决定性要素,然后分析了该过程中影响防空武器系统生存能力的总机动时间、被发现概率、抗击成功率、被毁伤概率等各项指标的特点,在此基础上建立了用于研究该过程的数学模型,最后给出实例进行了仿真计算,通过对计算结果的分析,证明了该模型的有效性,从而为防空兵机动作战模拟提供了一定的参考.     

巡航导弹的威胁分析及防御体系结构的建模

巡航导弹是现代防空领域面临的现实威胁,反巡作战成为亟需解决的实际问题.分析了巡航导弹对防御系统的威胁及防御难点.概括了反巡的3种作战行动,分解和细化了主动防御作战行动相应的作战活动,采用系统动力学方法对作战活动进行分析和验证.研究结果可为反巡体系的设计和评估提供借鉴.     

Defense policy in Brazil: bridging the gap between ends and means?

This article aims to analyze the Brazilian Defense Policy in terms of its ability to reduce the gap between ends and means. Since 2003, the Brazilian defense policy has evolved along with Brazil’s increased role in the international system. Sustaining this process depends on institutional, economic, and operational conditions that are yet to be fully guaranteed. They require negotiations, reforms, and strategic perspective. By identifying specific challenges emerging from the national security institutional framework, the combat capability building process, the budgetary cycle, as well as from the defense industrial base, we sought to explain their rationale and to offer concrete policy pointers to overcome obstacles. As a general conclusion, the Brazilian defense policy was strengthened by the 2008 National Defense Strategy (END) due to its clearer strategic goals. Bridging the gap between those ends and the proper means is a continuous effort for any given country, but in the case of Brazil it has been addressed with firmer steps since the END, even in the face of harder economic and political conditions.     

Middle Powers And The Demand For Military Expenditures

This paper identifies and classifies middle power nations through the use of broad political science definitions, the demand for military expenditures models and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The latter is used as a simple quantifiable measure of relative and potential military power. The paper also develops and utilizes a threat variable that is applicable to middle power nations. The panel data analysis shows that the middle power nations react to threat variables that proxy global instability utilize foreign aid as a complementary policy tool along with military expenditures, and face significant trade-offs between military and non-military government spending.     

Guns–butter tradeoff in contemporary China

This study offers an investigation of the relationship between defense and social spending in the People's Republic of China. In particular, three consecutive questions are answered here. Does a warfare–welfare tradeoff exist in China's budgetary allocation? Is it positive or negative? What is the causal direction involved? By applying a vector autoregression analysis for the period of 1952–2006, this study finds a unidirectional crowd-out effect going from defense to social spending.