Coercive diplomacy and the Donbas: Explaining Russian strategy in Eastern Ukraine

What were Russia’s objectives in Eastern Ukraine, and why was it seemingly unable to achieve a successful or decisive outcome? In contrast to Russia’s seizure of Crimea, the uprising in Eastern Ukraine was marked by disorganization and chaos. Using proxy and surrogate actors, along with military exercises and the injection of Russian troops, Russia sought to institutionalize a political entity inside Ukraine to influence its domestic politics. In this article, I analyze the mechanisms by which Russia attempted to implement, and later salvage, its strategy. The article contributes to clearer theoretical and practical understanding of limited force in coercive diplomacy, signaling, and a more rigorous treatment of the role and uses of proxy actors.     

A note on a difficulty inherent in estimating reliability from stress–strength relationships

This note calls attention to a difficulty which arises frequently in the application of stress-strength methods in reliability theory. This difficulty has led to unanticipated catastrophic failures in a number of applications.     

An iterative procedure for nondiscounted discrete-time markov decisions

This paper considers the problem of computing, by iterative methods, optimal policies for Markov decision processes. The policies computed are optimal for all sufficiently small interest rates.     

Scheduling jobs,with exponentially distributed processing times,on two machines of a flow shop

This paper treats the problem of sequencing n jobs on two machines in a “flow shop.” (That is, each job in the shop is required to flow through the same sequence of the machines.) The processing time of a given job on a given machine is assumed to be distributed exponentially, with a known mean. The objective is to minimize the expected job completion time. This paper proves an optimal ordering rule, previously conjectured by Talwar [10]. A formula is also derived through Markov Chain analysis, which evaluates the expected job completion time for any given sequence of the jobs. In addition, the performance of a heuristic rule is discussed in the light of the optimal solution.     

Combining standardized time series area and Cramér–von Mises variance estimators

We propose three related estimators for the variance parameter arising from a steady‐state simulation process. All are based on combinations of standardized‐time‐series area and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) estimators. The first is a straightforward linear combination of the area and CvM estimators; the second resembles a Durbin–Watson statistic; and the third is related to a jackknifed version of the first. The main derivations yield analytical expressions for the bias and variance of the new estimators. These results show that the new estimators often perform better than the pure area, pure CvM, and benchmark nonoverlapping and overlapping batch means estimators, especially in terms of variance and mean squared error. We also give exact and Monte Carlo examples illustrating our findings.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

A single server queue with arrival rate dependent on server breakdowns

This paper considers a single server queueing system that alternates stochastically between two states: operational and failed. When operational, the system functions as an M/E_k/1 queue. When the system is failed, no service takes place but customers continue to arrive according to a Poisson process; however, the arrival rate is different from that when the system is operational. The durations of the operating and failed periods are exponential with mean 1/cβ and Erlang with mean 1/cβ, respectively. Generating functions are used to derive the steady-state quantities L and W, both of which, when viewed as functions of c, decrease at a rate inversely proportional to c². The paper includes an analysis of several special and extreme cases and an application to a production-storage system.