Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

挠性接管在轴对称载荷下的应力应变计算

针对目前挠性接管强度计算存在的不足,在充分考虑骨架层的弯曲刚度和扭转刚度对挠性接管强度影响的基础上,推导出在承受轴对称负荷(拉压、扭矩及内压)时,挠性接管及其加强筋的应变和外力的关系,为挠性接管的结构设计和强度计算提供了理论公式.     

精神困境·救赎之路·孤独之旅—谈鲁迅与史铁生

史铁生是当代著名作家，他的作品思想深邃，精神探索超前，艺术方面也达到一定高度，鲁迅对他的影响很深刻，二人的创作无论在内容方面还是在艺术方面都有异曲同工之妙，二人共同关注着精神困境和生命本真，共同寻找和思考救赎之路，并且用三种相同的方式表达孤独。     

Nonrobustness of the normal approximation of lead‐time demand in a (Q,R) system

For computing an optimal (Q, R) or kindred inventory policy, the current literature provides mixed signals on whether or when it is safe to approximate a nonnormal lead‐time‐demand (“LTD”) distribution by a normal distribution. The first part of this paper examines this literature critically to justify why the issue warrants further investigations, while the second part presents reliable evidence showing that the system‐cost penalty for using the normal approximation can be quite serious even when the LTD‐distribution's coefficient of variation is quite low—contrary to the prevalent view of the literature. We also identify situations that will most likely lead to large system‐cost penalty. Our results indicate that, given today's technology, it is worthwhile to estimate an LTD‐distribution's shape more accurately and to compute optimal inventory policies using statistical distributions that more accurately reflect the LTD‐distributions' actual shapes. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

电力谐波及其对电能计量的影响

非线性用户的增多,使电网中谐波含量不断增加,对电能准确计量带来较大影响。针对上述情况,首先叙述了谐波的主要来源,从计量仪表的频率特性曲线角度,分析了谐波条件下感应式电能表和电子式电能表的误差变化情况,指出现有计量方式的不足,提出了改进计量方式的措施。     

雷达网抗干扰性能综合评估指标

如何对雷达网的抗干扰性能进行评估一直是国内外的研究热点之一。从雷达网的战术功能总体需求出发,指出可以根据雷达网在干扰前后的情报信息提供能力的变化来进行评估,然后结合对雷达网内部影响其抗干扰性能的各因素分析,并考虑到外场实际开展对雷达网抗干扰性能试验评估的需求,在现有评估指标的基础上,提出用于综合评估雷达网抗干扰性能的指标。     

航测平台计算机系统软件设计

根据航测平台系统计算机的功能要求 ,采用数据流图对航测平台系统软件进行了分析 ,对系统软件各模块进行了划分 ,确定了系统软件的设计方案 ,并在此基础上 ,完成了航测平台控制计算机系统软件的设计和实现 .     

AR模型在陀螺仪性能故障诊断中的应用研究

对惯导系统上的陀螺仪在无故障和故障下输出的信号进行分析 ,计算出信号的特征量———均值、标准差、协方差 ,并用现代谱分析技术中参数模型功率谱分析的方法 ,建立信号的AR模型、绘出AR模型的功率谱图 ,对陀螺仪输出信号的变化进行了比较和分析 ,从而找出一种作为判断陀螺仪性能故障的依据     

一种低空雷达垂直波瓣宽度展宽方法及实现

为解决某低空补盲雷达存在的探测范围小、低空盲区大的问题 ,利用分布馈源法对其天馈系统进行改进 ,通过增加一个馈源的方法 ,合理分配发射功率 ,在不影响雷达技术性能指标的前提下 ,使其垂直波瓣宽度展宽两倍 ,扩展了探测区域 ,改善了探测性能 ,在实际应用中取得了很好的效果     

火炮随动系统射击试验射弹数的自动控制

针对火炮随动系统射击试验中射击时机和射弹数难于人工控制的特点 ,讨论了利用火炮随动测试系统进行自动控制的可行性 ,分析了射弹数自动控制的误差。