Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

基于算法估计的网络端到端时延测量方法

在网络端到端延迟的测量中,常用的方法大多是通过发送探测包来直接得到端到端的时延值.由于存在时钟不同步的问题,所以测量结果的误差较大.针对此问题,在Sue B.Moon提出方法的基础上进一步改进,提出了一种基于算法估计的软件方法,该方法更好地解决了收发时钟不同步的问题,提高了测量的精度.     

基于Monte Carlo仿真的武器装备贡献度评估法

为了更加科学、准确地对武器装备贡献度进行评估,从装备体系的角度出发,立足于作战任务实际,充分体现信息化条件下空战过程的随机性,提出了一种基于Monte Carlo仿真的武器装备贡献度评估法。对典型空中作战场景进行了任务阶段划分。提出了能够准确描述作战能力的指标项,建立了能够反映能力指标项的随机矩阵。并以拦截空中目标为作战背景,运用Monte Carlo仿真进行了验证,得出了与实际结果一致的结论。为武器装备的装备贡献度评估提供了理论支撑和方法模型。     

Nonrobustness of the normal approximation of lead‐time demand in a (Q,R) system

For computing an optimal (Q, R) or kindred inventory policy, the current literature provides mixed signals on whether or when it is safe to approximate a nonnormal lead‐time‐demand (“LTD”) distribution by a normal distribution. The first part of this paper examines this literature critically to justify why the issue warrants further investigations, while the second part presents reliable evidence showing that the system‐cost penalty for using the normal approximation can be quite serious even when the LTD‐distribution's coefficient of variation is quite low—contrary to the prevalent view of the literature. We also identify situations that will most likely lead to large system‐cost penalty. Our results indicate that, given today's technology, it is worthwhile to estimate an LTD‐distribution's shape more accurately and to compute optimal inventory policies using statistical distributions that more accurately reflect the LTD‐distributions' actual shapes. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Deterministic inventory lot‐size models under inflation with shortages and deterioration for fluctuating demand

In this paper, we extend the inventory lot‐size models to allow for inflation and fluctuating demand (which is more general than constant, increasing, decreasing, and log‐concave demand patterns). We prove that the optimal replenishment schedule not only exists but is also unique. Furthermore, we show that the total cost associated with the inventory system is a convex function of the number of replenishments. Hence, the search for the optimal number of replenishments is simplified to finding a local minimum. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the results. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 144–158, 2001     

应变局部化理论及在岩土中的应用

应变局部化是物质内部应变积聚而生成的应变窄带,也称剪切带。固体材料特别是岩土材料的塑性变形和破坏常常与应变局部化现象相联系。应用经典连续介质力学来研究应变局部化现象遇到很多困难,如数值模拟的结果病态依赖于有限元网格等。为了克服这一困难,国内外研究者尝试着用各种不同的方法来研究应变局部化现象,包括理论、实验、数值模拟等方法。本文对应变局部化理论及其在岩土中新的应用进行了总结与回顾。     

近红外光谱技术快速测定汽油中芳烃、稀烃含量

对近红外光谱法预测汽油中的稀烃、芳烃含量进行了研究,用全交互验证法对36个不同油库、加油站汽油样品中的稀烃、芳烃含量进行了预测。研究结果表明,近红外光谱法预测汽油中的稀烃、芳烃含量方法可靠,预测结果能够满足国家标准对稀烃、芳烃含量分析的误差要求。     

Computational analysis of MMAP[K]/PH[K]/1 queues with a mixed FCFS and LCFS service discipline

This paper studies a queueing system with a Markov arrival process with marked arrivals and PH‐distribution service times for each type of customer. Customers (regardless of their types) are served on a mixed first‐come‐first‐served (FCFS) and last‐come‐first‐served (LCFS) nonpreemptive basis. That is, when the queue length is N (a positive integer) or less, customers are served on an FCFS basis; otherwise, customers are served on an LCFS basis. The focus is on the stationary distribution of queue strings, busy periods, and waiting times of individual types of customers. A computational approach is developed for computing the stationary distribution of queue strings, the mean of busy period, and the means and variances of waiting times. The relationship between these performance measures and the threshold number N is analyzed in depth numerically. It is found that the variance of the virtual (actual) waiting time of an arbitrary customer can be reduced by increasing N. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 399–421, 2000     

Determining a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with rework jobs

Consider a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with only a work center handling both regular and rework jobs. An imperfect production system studied here, generates defect jobs by factors other than machine failures. A threshold control or (ω, s) policy sets the guideline for a work center to switch between regular and rework jobs. A production cycle begins with loading and processing of several batches of regular jobs with a lot size equal to s. The outcome of each completed regular job is an independent Bernoulli trial with three possibilities: good, rework, or scrap. Once the work center accumulates more than a threshold ω of rework jobs, it finishes the last batch of regular jobs and switches to rework jobs. The objective of this research is to find a threshold ω and a lot size s that maximize the average long‐term profit. The ultimate goal is to construct a simple algorithm to search for ω and s that can be implemented directly in production management systems, as a result of this work. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 273–301, 1999     

USB与RS232接口转换器的设计

针对RS232接口向USB接口转换的需求,提出两类设计方案。一类方案以CY7C68013芯片为代表,从硬件底层固件开始,进行全面系统开发。另一类采用类似CP2102的USB/RS232双向转换专用芯片进行设计,只需对芯片功能了解和应用,无须深入开发。第一类方案由于成本和开发难度的限制而很少被采用,但在特殊的操作系统或专门的应用条件下是优选方案。第二类方案经常被采用,但因受到芯片生产商的限制而无法进行特殊的应用。应用设计人员可以根据实际情况选择适合的方案。