The optimal size of a storage facility

The appropriate size for a piece of fixed capital equipment (measured in units of capacity) depends on the anticipated demand for its services and on its cost. Using several models developed in the study of optimal inventory policy we derive the contribution to cost reduction that additional storage space makes under each of these models. Comparison of the sum of the discounted benefits (ie., reduced operating cost) with construction costs for additional storage space then yields the optimal size of the storage facility.     

‘A Brave New World for Chinese Joint Operations’

A key organizational challenge for all modern militaries is instituting an effective command-and-control (C2) structure for joint operations. China has been a relative latecomer to joint operations, with a persistent weakness in joint C2. Reforms launched in early 2016 sought to overcome this challenge by establishing a permanent two-level joint C2 structure. Although not a ‘tipping point’ that will lead ineluctably to stronger operational effectiveness, this reform is nonetheless an important milestone in an evolutionary process towards better PLA joint operations. The result could be added operational challenges for several of China’s neighbors and the United States.     

A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball

Each year, more than $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Division 1 men's basketball tournament. Most of that money is wagered in pools where the object is to correctly predict winners of each game, with emphasis on the last four teams remaining (the Final Four). In this paper, we present a combined logistic regression/Markov chain model for predicting the outcome of NCAA tournament games given only basic input data. Over the past 6 years, our model has been significantly more successful than the other common methods such as tournament seedings, the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, the RPI, and the Sagarin and Massey ratings. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

A probabilistic evaluation of helicopter lift capability

This paper describes a technique for the calculation of the probability that a helicopter can lift a specified load, or number of loads with a specified frequency distribution, in a given geographical region. This probability is computed by determining the bivariate altitude-temperature probability distribution for the specified region. The payload capability at any given temperature and altitude is calculated from standard performance equations. By integrating this over the altitude-temperature distribution, it is possible to obtain the probability distribution of payload capability, from which the required probabilities of lifting specific loads can be determined.     

Analysis of project scheduling strategies in a client-contractor environment

In this article we consider a cost-minimization model to investigate scheduling strategies for multistaged projects in a client-contractor environment. This type of environment is symptomatic of temporal changes in project definition and scope. At prespecified epochs the client conducts an external evaluation of the project and either accepts or rejects the contractor's current work. The resulting uncertainty from the client's review is modeled via monotonically varying acceptance probabilities. The model is designed primarily to address the interaction between earliest-, intermediate-, and latest-start options and project-crashing stragies for a broad range of penalty costs. Theoretical results are introduced, while numerical examples for both exponentially and polynomially based acceptance probabilities are discussed.     

Hydropolitics of the Nile: The case of Ethiopia and Egypt

This article analyses the political relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt. It aims to provide an analytical framework to unpack this complex relationship and assess the impacts that the Nile River has on the nature of this relationship. It further identifies geopolitical factors determining the impacts of the Nile River on frameworks of actions and political opportunity structures in which political actors operate. Accordingly, the different combinations of these determinants lead to the formation of political actors and ensuing actions that can fuel conflict, sustain the status quo or build peace. The article seeks to provide tentative answers to the following questions: what can be done or what mechanisms might be used to reduce the risk of conflict? What parties should participate and what will be their roles? And how can modern technology and science contribute to a possible solution?