An overview of conflict in Africa in 2014

Violent conflict escalated in Africa in 2014, with five sub-Saharan states – the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan – accounting for an estimated 75% of all conflict-related deaths on the continent. This paper provides an overview of the five major sub-Saharan African conflicts in 2014 and considers the underlying causes and dynamics in the Seleka/anti-Balaka conflict in the CAR, the Islamist threats of Boko Haram and al-Shabaab in Nigeria and Somalia, the civil war in South Sudan, and the long-running conflict between Sudan's government and southern and Darfuri rebels. The paper unpacks the general trends evident in these conflicts and the implications for the settlement thereof, including the targeting of civilians, ethnic and religious mobilisation and the state as epicentre of violence. The paper concludes with a brief look ahead to 2015.     

THE BRAZILIAN WAY

This article examines the positions held by Brazil under the administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–present) on nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, and disarmament regimes and on contentious issues in those areas. Under Lula's government, Brazil has wanted to mediate between nuclear weapon and non-nuclear weapon states to consolidate its position as a strong negotiator and to benefit from the possible gains of this position in terms of greater participation in international institutions. It has also wanted to pressure nuclear weapon states to fulfill their disarmament obligations in order to reduce asymmetries in its relations with powerful nuclear weapon countries. At the same time, Brazil has tried to preserve its autonomy and flexibility to protect commercial secrets and preserve national security in relation to its own nuclear program.     

SDI,NATO, and the Social Composition Function

The strategic defense initiative (SDI) intends to renew the leadership of the USA on the western alliance. The initiative takes place in a period when a summation technology prevails for the aggregation of contributions of NATO allies. We investigate if SDI induces a shift in Hirshleifer’s social composition function. Panel data tests over the period 1970–1990 do not confirm any break toward a best-shot aggregator. SDI does not alter the core of deterrence. It is indeed a public good at the US level but not at the NATO level, where, it is one of the joint products of the alliance. We also investigate the lessons to be drawn for the current debates on ballistic defense.     

多无人机协同攻击目标决策

论文针对多架无人机相互协作攻击多个敌对目标的武器目标分配决策问题进行了研究。利用层次分析法（AHP）和灰色关联分析法评估了威胁指标的权重,针对协同攻击空战模型中受威胁大的无人机无需参与攻击,而采用机动躲避策略的特定情况提出了一种启发式遗传模拟退火（HGASA）求解算法,实现了武器目标攻击决策的求解。仿真实验表明,本文提出的HGASA算法对决策方案的求解速度和求解质量与现有的遗传算法(GA)、模拟退火算法(SA)等算法相比均有明显提高。     

分布式指挥控制决策冲突问题的一致性模型

基于复合标度的二元语义评价方法,提出了一种用于分布式指挥控制决策冲突问题的一致性模型。该模型首先对决策者的一致程度进行判断;其次,测量出个人与整体的偏好偏差,并由模型中的反馈机制提出相关反馈建议;最后通过算例表明该模型可以较好解决决策过程中由于个人认知不同而产生的冲突问题。     

人车目标的自动识别

对单人、人群、机动车三类目标的特征进行了分析,找出了它们之间的不同之处,提出了对这三类目标进行分类识别的方法,并经现场检验,证明这种方法是有效的。     

Optimal FCFS allocation rules for periodic‐review assemble‐to‐order systems

In Assemble‐To‐Order (ATO) systems, situations may arise in which customer demand must be backlogged due to a shortage of some components, leaving available stock of other components unused. Such unused component stock is called remnant stock. Remnant stock is a consequence of both component ordering decisions and decisions regarding allocation of components to end‐product demand. In this article, we examine periodic‐review ATO systems under linear holding and backlogging costs with a component installation stock policy and a First‐Come‐First‐Served (FCFS) allocation policy. We show that the FCFS allocation policy decouples the problem of optimal component allocation over time into deterministic period‐by‐period optimal component allocation problems. We denote the optimal allocation of components to end‐product demand as multimatching. We solve the multi‐matching problem by an iterative algorithm. In addition, an approximation scheme for the joint replenishment and allocation optimization problem with both upper and lower bounds is proposed. Numerical experiments for base‐stock component replenishment policies show that under optimal base‐stock policies and optimal allocation, remnant stock holding costs must be taken into account. Finally, joint optimization incorporating optimal FCFS component allocation is valuable because it provides a benchmark against which heuristic methods can be compared. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 158–169, 2015     

基于有限理性理论的虚拟士兵感知行为建模研究

针对当前虚拟士兵感知行为模型的缺陷,介绍有限理性理论和基于有限理性虚拟士兵的概念,分析了加入有限理性理论的虚拟士兵的特点,提出了基于有限理性虚拟士兵的感知行为模型。该模型包括有限视觉模型、有限听觉模型和有限记忆模型,基于该感知模型的虚拟士兵在感知、决策和运动能力方面与类似真实士兵具有较高的一致性。这对虚拟士兵的感知行为建模研究具有一定的探索意义。     

伴随维修组维修模型聚合方法

面向装备维修保障系统的多分辨率建模问题,提出了一种装备维修模型的聚合方法,为装备维修保障系统模型的聚合研究提供了一种新的思路。该方法通过聚合故障输入和推理维修状态实现维修模型的聚合。最后通过基于MATLAB的仿真实验验证了该方法的可行性。通过实例验证可以看出,该方法缩短了仿真时间,减少了复杂系统底层建模的工作量。     

大气气溶胶对激光制导探测作用距离影响的数值分析

针对大气气溶胶辐射传输衰减效应是影响1.06μm激光武器系统性能的重要因素,探讨了大气气溶胶对1.06μm激光探测作用距离的影响,构建了激光制导波段探测作用距离模型,并在此基础上进行激光探测作用距离的大气气溶胶影响数值仿真。试验表明,基于该模型计算的大气透过特性准确度基本符合国际公认理论分析值,对作用距离的评估结果与客观实际基本相符,对最大限度分析利用战场气象环境以确保武器作战性能的充分发挥具有重要价值,可为激光探测作用距离的气象环境影响后续发展奠定一定基础。