基于双层Soar框架的数字化士兵行为建模方法

针对数字化战场仿真中高分辨率数字化士兵行为建模需求,改进了行为建模的Soar框架,提出了基于双层Soar框架的数字化士兵行为建模方法。围绕双层Soar框架的感知、决策、行动3要素,提出了增强视距感知和超视距感知的概念,建立了数字化士兵感知模型;根据数字化士兵的决策特点,建立了基于策略的决策模型;在分析数字化士兵行动特点的基础上,建立了基于行动元的数字化士兵行动模型。最后,对4种行为建模方法进行了比较,并通过仿真试验验证了基于双层Soar框架的数字化士兵行为建模方法的有效性和所建立模型的可行性。     

基于A~*算法的虚拟士兵城市作战路径规划

针对虚拟士兵在城市作战仿真领域的需求,重点研究了虚拟士兵在城市环境中路径规划问题。通过对三维城市虚拟环境空间进行分层信息处理,生成虚拟士兵能够感知的虚拟信息层。用A*算法求出虚拟士兵从初始位置到达目标位置的最佳路径,并给出算法的具体设计与实现。     

Virtools环境下虚拟装备行为控制方法

为解决当前基于Virtools的装备虚拟训练系统中外观模型与机理模型紧密耦合所导致的模型开发效率低、不可重用的问题,分析了虚拟装备仿真模型结构,提出了一种基于Virtools消息机制的虚拟装备行为控制方法,实现了机理模型与外观模型相互分离、彼此独立的开发和维护,提高了模型的可维护性和可重用性。基于该方法开发的“某高炮虚拟训练系统”,已推广至军事院校的教学、训练,其验证了该方法的可行性。     

火炮虚拟随机试验技术

为了实现装备的虚拟随机试验,运用虚拟样机技术和多刚体理论,建立了火炮系统动力学模型;基于模型考虑装备系统结构及参数的随机性、离散性,将随机模拟方法与虚拟试验技术结合,借助MSC\Insight模块开发了火炮虚拟随机试验平台。基于平台进行了火炮虚拟试验,并对实验结果进行了统计分析,实现了装备行为特征的有效模拟。     

地空导弹CGF系统感知行为模型研究

为了有效解决计算机生成兵力模拟目标识别行为的问题,对防空作战中指挥员感知信息和综合处理的过程进行了分析,针对目前CGF系统的需求和感知行为模型的不足,建立了一个综合多特征信息的不确定性地空导弹感知行为模型。该模型对数据库中样本和待识别目标的特征信息进行客观的主成分分析,利用分析得到的综合主成分值对目标进行匹配;在此基础上,引入表示匹配结果不确定性的感知能力值,获得一个带有不确定性的即时信念;最后,通过基于感知能力的证据合并方法将即时信念、先验信念和通信信念合并形成最终信念。实例分析表明该模型可行。     

坦克嵌入式车场射击训练系统仿真技术研究

通过对视景仿真、车炮长仿真模型、射击仿真和虚拟士兵仿真等关键技术开展研究,研制了具有较强沉浸感的新型嵌入式射击训练系统。该系统可以使乘员充分利用坦克内的控制设备和通信设备在驻地进行训练,同时为乘员提供了真实的操作、训练环境,具有较好的训练效果。     

基于Multi-Agent的武器装备虚拟维修训练系统

提出了一种基于Multi-Agent的虚拟维修训练系统(VMTS)结构框架,整个系统分别由主控Agent、仿真Agent、和接口Agent3个具有交互作用的Agent组成,从而将虚拟维修训练系统的开发转化为一个多Agent系统的设计与开发.基于多Agent的框架结构可实现受训者的智能模型及虚拟训练场景中虚拟物体的行为模型,从而可以提高VMTS的健壮性和可重用性.基于Agent的概念模型实现了Agent之间的交互和协作,并介绍了主控Agent和仿真Agent的具体实现方法.     

中段智能机动突防后的虚拟目标修正研究

为实现弹头中段机动后的显式制导,进行了虚拟目标修正研究。通过在建立最大弹道包络面的基础上,提出基于穿越弹道横截面的虚拟目标修正方法,基于弹道包络横截面的大机动弹道虚拟目标计算方法,建立虚拟目标计算模型。通过仿真获得了大机动弹道对应的虚拟目标,通过显式制导方法验证了其具有较好的制导精度,此方法为工程应用和理论研究提供了重要的理论参考。     

基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法

针对杂波环境中的目标检测跟踪问题,提出一种基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法。算法将目标状态和量测描述为随机集合,建立考虑目标出现、目标保持、目标消失等情况的目标状态随机有限集模型,以及考虑漏检和虚警的多传感器量测随机有限集模型。将目标的联合检测跟踪问题构建为目标状态集合的贝叶斯最优估计问题,并基于随机有限集理论对该贝叶斯估计算法的递推表达式进行严格理论推导。采用序贯蒙特卡罗技术实现算法的递推滤波。仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性以及算法相对于传统基于数据关联算法的性能优势。     

战场电磁态势融合感知技术框架研究?

为了高效精确感知现代战场条件下的电磁态势，分析了战场电磁态势感知的需求，研究了基于高层信息融合的电磁态势融合感知技术框架。战场电磁态势融合感知技术框架面向异构信息综合处理和融合模型柔性控制，基于电磁实体序列识别形成观测态势，基于作战行动企图估计形成估计态势，基于电磁威胁预测评估形成预测态势，构建现代战场综合电磁态势图。研究表明基于融合理论的战场电磁态势融合感知技术框架具有适应性强、高效精确的特点。     

Price and capacity decisions of service systems with boundedly rational customers

We consider price and capacity decisions for a profit‐maximizing service provider in a single server queueing system, in which customers are boundedly rational and decide whether to join the service according to a multinomial logit model. We find two potential price‐capacity pair solutions for the first‐order condition of the profit‐maximizing problem. Profit is maximized at the solution with a larger capacity, but minimized at the smaller one. We then consider a dynamically adjusting capacity system to mimic a real‐life situation and find that the maximum can be reached only when the initial service rate is larger than a certain threshold; otherwise, the system capacity and demand shrink to zero. We also find that a higher level of customers’ bounded rationality does not necessarily benefit a firm, nor does it necessarily allow service to be sustained. We extend our analysis to a setting in which customers’ bounded rationality level is related to historical demand and find that such a setting makes service easier to sustain. Finally we find that bounded rationality always harms social welfare.     

基于SIMULINK的卫星通信系统仿真研究

简要分析卫星通信系统组成,估算卫星通信系统中存在的各种损耗与噪声,提出以链路信噪比、通信误码率作为衡量卫星通信系统性能的主要指标,并建模研究与分析信噪比与误码率的内在联系。运用SIMULINK仿真软件,以同步卫星为仿真对象,在卫星通信原理基础上对卫星通信系统适当简化,构建卫星通信基带等效模型,仿真得到出发射前和解调后信号星座图、功率谱图以及通信误码率曲线,对仿真结果的分析证明该仿真系统的合理性与可靠性,为运用SIMULINK软件仿真研究卫星通信系统奠定基础。     

Risk,War, and the Dangers of Soldier Identity

The profession of arms is distinct from other professions for many reasons. One reason which is not so obvious is that, unlike members of other professions, soldiers may go their entire careers preparing for a day that never arrives. All things considered, we should think this to be a very good thing. For soldiers, however, this can feel somewhat odd, since there is a natural desire to want to feel useful and to see one’s role and purpose find realization. Accordingly, the common soldier is forced to adopt a rather paradoxical mindset, one of longing for peace, and therefore for uselessness, while at the same time longing to be useful, which would entail that there be a war. This latter desire to be useful and to vindicate one’s identity as a soldier can sometimes take on an unhealthy life of its own. The pull of wanting too strongly to live up to a warrior identity, I argue, can sometimes skew a soldier’s ability to assess risk rationally. This article will therefore investigate how a soldier’s concept of self influences his or her overall capacity to evaluate risk in war and when such influence might become morally problematic.     

虚拟训练系统复杂装备建模方法研究

分析了虚拟训练系统装备模型的基本特征，并将装备模型分为外观模型与机理模型，在此基础上，介绍了外观模型的构造方法和基于有向图的模型约束结构，根据复杂系统以及虚拟训练的特点，建立了装备对象机理模型，同时阐述了外观与机理模型的系统应用。     

Case Study Commentary and Analysis: The Moral Sword of Damocles

Case summary, by James Cook (Case Study Editor):

In the final issue of the 2015 volume of the Journal of Military Ethics, we published a case study entitled “Coining an Ethical Dilemma: The Impunity of Afghanistan’s Indigenous Security Forces”, written by Paul Lushenko. The study detailed two extra-judicial killings (EJKs) by Afghan National Police (ANP) personnel in an area stabilized and overseen by a US-led Combined Task Force (CTF). To deter further EJKs following the first incident, the CTF’s commander reported the incidents up his chain of command and used the limited tools at his disposal to influence local indigenous officials directly. Apparently, the ANP unit took no notice. In his commentary on the case study, Paul Robinson considered moral compromise in war more generally. Coalition troops in Afghanistan, for instance, have encountered not just EJKs but also sexual abuse of minors, killing of non-combatants, kidnapping, torture, and widespread corruption. What should the soldier on the ground do if indigenous personnel violate Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC) with impunity? Refusing to serve will not right or prevent moral wrongs, while staying on to fight the good but futile fight will mire the soldier in moral compromise. “?… [S]oldiers faced with this dilemma have no good options. The systemic failings surrounding them mean that it is probable that nothing they do will help”. In a concluding note, I suggested that while an individual soldier may indeed have no good options, as Paul Robinson suggests, that soldier’s military and nation at large are obliged to do what they can. At least, they must keep to the moral high ground so as not to give indigenous security forces an excuse to misbehave, and determine the nature of crimes such as EJKs: are they outlaw acts or in fact endorsed by the indigenous culture and perhaps even government? Below Colonel Dave Barnes, himself a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, analyzes Paul Lushenko’s case study at “?…?the local, tactical level: If a commander is in this situation – where her unit witnesses an EJK or other war crime – what should she do?”     

三关节机器人的神经网络补偿自适应控制器设计

三关节机器人广泛用于工业生产、轮式或履带式排爆机器人,为了补偿由于机器人结构参数、作业环境干扰等不确定性因素造成的机器人动力学模型的不确定性,将机器人动力学模型分解为名义模型和误差模型两部分,其误差模型采用RBF神经网络进行补偿,得到其估计信息,神经网络的输出权值根据Lyapunov稳定性理论采用自适应算法进行调整。所设计的神经网络补偿自适应控制器解决了不确定性机器人动力学系统控制器设计的不确定性问题,同时,通过定义Lyapunov函数,证明了控制器能渐近、稳定地跟踪期望轨迹。机器人的3个关节在控制器的作用下,约在5 s时达到期望轨迹,神经网络约在5 s时逼近机器人动力学模型的误差模型,实验结果表明了机器人关节对期望轨迹具有良好的轨迹跟踪性能。     

液体推进剂消耗对大型卫星结构动特性的影响分析

为了研究液体推进剂消耗对某大型卫星结构动特性的影响,采用简化的“弹簧-质量”模型分析了推进剂消耗对结构动特性的影响趋势;基于MSC.PATRAN/NASTRAN给出了动力学分析过程中液体推进剂的等效建模和分析方法,包括梁单元法、附加质量法、“RBE3 -质量点”单元法和虚拟质量法等;建立了该卫星结构的有限元模型,进行了结构动力学特性和动响应分析,讨论了液体推进剂消耗对其动特性的影响规律.研究结果表明:随着推进剂的消耗,卫星整体振型的固有频率逐渐增大,而部分局部振型的固有频率保持不变;随着推进剂的消耗,卫星仪器安装板动力学响应峰值逐渐增大,所对应的频率也逐渐增大.     

基于Vague理论和模糊综合评判的火箭炮效能评估

针对基地逐项试验考核评估武器系统的现状,从效能的角度整体上评估武器系统性能。针对用一个数值量化定性指标的不足,引入Vague理论的相似度量概念,使定性指标存在踌躇度,更真实地模拟人的思维决策过程。基于Vague理论和模糊综合评判理论,建立了火箭炮的效能评估模型,并用建立的模型对某火箭炮进行了计算,计算结果符合预期。