基于ANP的多目标网络目标重要度评估方法

摘　要：目标重要度分析是军事计划人员开发作战计划方案的前提和基础,是形成作战行动的基本依据。针对多目标网络中重心的抽象性及不易打击的特点,分析影响重心的关键要素及其依赖关系,提出了基于改进网络分析法的多目标网络重心模型,利用该模型分析目标相对于重心的重要度。研究了该模型涉及的两个关键技术,即改进判断矩阵以提高决策的速度和克服决策的主观性,利用协调理论确定要素之间的依赖关系。以分析某地区多目标网络的过程为例,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。     

基于GAHP-模糊综合评价的南海方向潜艇威胁评估

为有效解决我南海方向有限反潜能力与广域反潜要求不相适应的矛盾,提出“分区评估威胁,分类建设体系”的思路。针对潜艇威胁主要影响因素,建立潜艇威胁评估指标体系,运用GAHP-模糊综合评价相结合的方法,对潜艇威胁进行量化评估,为合理用兵,实现反潜体系的最优化建设提供依据。     

浅谈网络时代传统期刊的出路

编辑出版工作是各种知识信息传播的重要环节之一,是学术、科研成果得以展示和交流的有效途径。当前,互联网的强大功能极大地改变了信息传播形式和形势。但是,互联网毕竟只是一个信息交换场所,它无法真正替代传统期刊编辑出版的作用。不能把网络时代对期刊信息的使用与编辑出版混为一谈。     

地空导弹阵地选择的模糊综合评判

选择地空导弹阵地是地空导弹部队作战指挥决策的必要环节和重要内容,阵地选择的好坏直接影响到导弹性能的发挥和防空任务的实现.由于阵地选择受到很多非量化因素的影响,单纯定性分析很难给出科学合理的评价结果,所以必须定性、定量相结合进行综合评判.通过对影响地空导弹阵地选择各因素的全面分析,建立了阵地选择的因素指标体系,给出了阵地选择的综合评判模型和评判方法,并通过实例验证了该模型和方法对评估和优选地空导弹阵地的可行性和实用性.     

A produce‐to‐stock system with advance demand information and secondary customers

We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

节点缓存受限场景下车载自组织网络拥堵特性研究

车载自组织网络作为一种新型的移动自组织网络,是智能交通系统的关键组成部分.近年来,社会各界对车载自组织网络的拥堵性进行了广泛研究,但却忽略了车载自组织网络中移动节点缓存空间有限的现实问题.因此,针对节点缓存受限场景下车载自组织网络的拥堵性问题进行了研究,通过设计来优化网络中数据包的传递过程.仿真实验的结果表明,提出的多...     

侦察与监测系统效能评估

在航天监测信息系统建模和模型分析时,系统的评估方法和评价模型是系统建模的前提条件和重要组成部分。利用WSEIAC提出的一般模型,建立了航天监测系统效能一般形式,应用APH(层次分析法)和矩阵分析方法分析建立航天监测系统性能能力指数模型,同时考虑初始条件和系统状态变化对总效能的影响。     

我国数据驱动管理决策研究现状分析

数据驱动管理决策研究是大数据时代管理工程领域研究的重要方向。本文提出了基于社会网络分析方法的总体思路,采集、清洗和处理了我国数据驱动管理决策研究文献数据,建立了文献数据的共词矩阵,并进行了共词分析,构建了我国数据驱动管理决策研究的社群图,从点度中心度、接近中心度和中间中心度等方面研究了我国数据驱动管理决策研究现状,提出了当前研究热点和研究对象。此外,我们从大数据时代管理决策特点规律和作用机理揭示、数据驱动管理决策体系框架构建和要素分析、管理决策数据驱动技术工具和模型构建等方面总结了未来研究重点和趋势。研究结论对于我国开展数据驱动的管理决策理论研究和实践应用能够提供参考借鉴。     

Network structure of insurgent groups and the success of DDR processes in Colombia

We argue that organizational structure of insurgent organizations influences the prospects for success in a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration process (DDR). In essence, we argue that more cohesive, tighter networks have higher levels of supervision and control on its military units and increase the probability of successful DDR processes. In order to evaluate our hypotheses, we use the theory of networks to map and characterize the network structure of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Our results suggest that armed military units grouped in smaller and more isolated components on the network remilitarize with higher probability with respect to other units on the network. Also, we find that military units with high degree of centrality on the network play an important role for the risk of conflict recurrence and success in a DDR process.     

Graveyard of Analogies: The Use and Abuse of History for the War in Afghanistan

Decades of scholarship have warned against using historical analogies for policymaking. But the Taliban insurgency appears, on the surface, to confirm the usefulness of historical analogies to the British and Soviet wars in Afghanistan. I review the use of analogies for the war in Afghanistan and argue the analogies were historically unsound and strategically unhelpful. In fact, their effect on policy helped create the conditions for the very insurgency policymakers most hoped to avoid. The Taliban insurgency did not occur because of the presence of too many foreign troops and aid workers, but because there were too few.