Estimating non‐transparent military expenditures: The case of china (PRC)∗

Data limitations arising from non‐transparency in military expenditure reporting impose significant constraints on economists studying country and comparative developments in this field. This article focuses on the case of China. It reviews the recent literature on China's military expenditure, examines the variance in published estimates, and identifies three factors which help explain the variance: budgetary falsification; non‐budgeted PLA revenue; and the US dollar purchasing‐power parity of the yuan. Conclusions emphasize important policy implications of such variance and suggest a more active role for defence economists in a field of research generating considerable attention from international relations scholars.     

Book Reviews

Patrick Finney (ed.), The Origins of the Second World War. London: Arnold, 1997. Pp.xvi + 461, index. £15.99. ISBN 0–340–67640‐X.

Maria Emilia Paz, Strategy, Security, and Spies: Mexico and the US as Allies in World War II. University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997. Pp.xii + 264, 10 illus., biblio., index. $55 (cloth); $19.95 (paper). ISBN 0–271–01665–5 and 01666–3.

Norman J.W. Goda, Tomorrow the World: Hitler, Northwest Africa and the Path toward America. College Station, Texas A&;M University Press, 1998. Pp.xxvi + 307, 2 maps, biblio., index. $39.95. ISBN 0–89096–807–1.

Michael J. Hogan, A Cross of Iron: Harry S. Truman and the Origins of the National Security State, 1945–1954. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Pp.xii + 525, biblio., index. £25; $34.95. ISBN 0–521–64044‐X.

Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999. Pp.viii + 270, index. $35. ISBN 0–801403201–4.

Eric Arnett (ed.), Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in South Asia after the Test Ban, SIPRI Research Report No.14. Oxford: Oxford University Press/Stockholm Int Peace Research Institute, 1998. Pp.viii + 98, index. £12.99. ISBN 0–19–8294115.

T.V. Paul, Richard J. Harknett and James J. Wirtz (eds.), The Absolute Weapon Revisited: Nuclear Arms and Emerging International Order. Ann Arbor, Michigan: The University of Michigan Press, 1998. Pp.vi + 312, index. $47.50/£36. ISBN 0–472–10863–8.     

India's Aspirations and Strategy for the Indian Ocean – Securing the Waves?

India has increasingly high aspirations in the Indian Ocean, as enunciated by politicians, naval figures and the wider elite. These aspirations, its strategic discourse, are of pre-eminence and leadership. India's maritime strategy for such a self-confessed diplomatic, constabulary and benign role is primarily naval-focused; a sixfold strategy of increasing its naval spending, strengthening its infrastructure, increasing its naval capabilities, active maritime diplomacy, exercising in the Indian Ocean and keeping open the choke points. Through such strategy, and soft balancing with the United States, India hopes to secure its own position against a perceived growing Chinese challenge in the Indian Ocean.     

中国特色社会主义事业发展布局的创新与发展

十八大首次将经济、政治、文化、社会和生态五大建设并列,强调“五位一体”建设中国特色社会主义。由此,中国特色社会主义发展布局历经四个阶段,即：“一个中心,两个基本点”的战略布局,“三位一体”发展布局,“四位一体”发展布局,“五位一体”发展布局。“五位一体”总体布局是一个相互联系、相互协调、相互促进、相辅相成的有机整体,对于开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面意义重大,为到本世纪中叶基本实现社会主义现代化,提供了有力支撑。     

论当代文学教学中的新边塞诗

新边塞诗歌曾是1980年代新疆文学创作的主要成绩,在国内产生了重要的影响,但因其在诗歌创作手法和精神内质上未能秉持初期设想中的事项夯实诗歌的创作,在历史法则的淘洗下,处在了当代诗歌教学中的尴尬位置。对于新疆高校文学教学而言,有必要审视新边塞诗歌创作的历史情景,以梳理文学现象的方式切入,重返1980年代新疆诗人创作的原点。     

浅谈如何培养小学中段语文童话课文阅读能力

童话课文在小学中段语文课本中占有重要的地位,作为教师,要重视中段童话课文的教学,从中段学生的年龄特点出发,充分发挥童话课文的优势,指导学生通过朗读、质疑、品评、复述、想像、表演、续写、查阅等有效手段,体验阅读的乐趣,从而乐于阅读,进而主动阅读,培养学生的阅读能力,让童话课文成为教育学生的有力武器,启迪学生智慧的有效手段,认识世界的奇异窗口,全面培养提高学生的语文综合素养。     

Investigating the Desirability of Navy Aircraft Service Life Extension Programs

Building on prior work on optimal replacement of aging aircraft, this paper presents three methodologies to evaluate prospective aviation Service Life Extension Programs (SLEPs) and applies these methodologies to US Navy F/A-18E/F data. While considerable uncertainty remains as to the values of key parameters (e.g. the cost of F/A-18E/F SLEPs), the preponderance of the evidence available at this juncture favors undertaking SLEPs on F/A-18E/Fs rather than replacing them with new Joint Strike Fighters.     

Empirical Biases and Some Remedies in Estimating the Effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses on Reenlistment Rates

Researchers have, for decades, been attempting to estimate the effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRBs) on the probability of reenlistment for the military services. SRBs are targeted to specific military occupations for which reenlistment rates are lower (or expected to be lower) than what is needed. This article first identifies four primary sources of biases affecting these models: reverse causality from supply shifts (a negative bias), the endogeneity of the decision point causing coded SRBs to be higher for reenlisters than leavers (a positive bias), measurement error (a likely negative bias), and excess supply preventing the full effect of an SRB change to materialize (a positive or negative bias). The report proceeds to develop a model that attempts to address the first two biases. With U.S. Navy data from FY2001-FY2008, I examine the extent to which these two biases are affecting the estimated SRB effects. Despite these corrections, the difficulty of addressing the other biases calls into doubt studies that examine the effects of retention bonuses or even the effects of the structure of military pay in general.     

2005～2009年《武警学院学报》文献计量分析

通过对2005～2009年《武警学院学报》5年间的载文、作者及引文情况进行统计分析,研究其载文量、栏目设置以及著者、发文地区和著者系统分布,并统计出合作度、合作类型、引文量、篇均引文数、引文语种及引文类型等,以期描述学报在改为月刊后的出版状况,从中发现一些带有规律性的问题,并客观评价其办刊特色,为刊物的进一步发展及相关学科动向提供理论依据。     

关于设置《中国屯垦经济史》课程的分析

在中国经济史课程中,屯垦经济史一直是作为农业经济的一个组成部分而占有较小的份量。作为有着屯垦戍边传统地区的高校,尤其需要在中国屯垦经济史教学和研究领域加大力度,特别是建立独立的中国屯垦经济史课程进行教学,这不仅可以使学生了解在两千年来的西北边疆屯垦和戍边史上屯垦经济所发挥的重要作用,而且可以进一步加深其对在国家战略西向中兵团经济发展所具有的重要意义的理解,并且,在课程建设和完善的基础上,逐步突出该课程的地域特色和学习价值,并进一步将其建设成国家的精品课程。