动态贝叶斯网络的无人机炮火校射

动态贝叶斯网络(Dynamic Bayesian Networks-DBNs),是对具有随机过程性质的不确定性问题进行建模和处理的一个有力工具.提出将隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Models-HMMs)图形模式与贝叶斯网络结合起来构成DBN,将其用于无人机照相侦察情报的推理分析,决定炮火优先打击区域.首先建立动态贝叶斯网络的战场态势变化模型,而后应用HMM的推理算法获得当前隐含序列最优估计,且可预测出未来战场态势.最后应用模糊推理获得优先打击的区域号.仿真结果表明了模型的可行性.该方法有效解决了贝叶斯网络对于瞬间变化战场态势推理的不足的缺陷,为炮兵指挥员更好地运用火力,分出主次奠定了基础.     

系统仿真技术初探

为了对系统仿真技术有一个总体认识,采用归纳和分析的方法,对系统仿真技术的体系进行了初步探讨.     

无人机避障航路规划方法研究综述

随着无人机作业空域从中高空不断向低空甚至超低空拓展,复杂的低空障碍环境对无人机造成了严重的威胁。研究无人机避障航路规划理论与方法,对于保障无人机的飞行安全和提升其任务效率具有重要作用。对无人机避障航路规划方法的研究现状进行了梳理,首先,根据航路规划问题所建立的优化模型,将规划方法划分为基于数学规划的方法、基于路标图的方法、基于空间分解的方法、基于势场的方法、基于随机规划的方法和基于机器学习的方法六个大类。然后,分别介绍了各类型方法的基本原理、代表性研究以及优缺点。最后,对避障航路规划方法未来可能的研究方向进行了展望。综述表明,复杂环境下无人机三维航路规划方法的研究仍有提升空间;未来应考虑将传统规划方法与新一代人工智能技术相结合;航路规划方法研究应充分考虑机载传感器的实际性能和工作特性;规划航路的可跟踪性问题也亟待解决。     

A review of dual-spin projectile stability

This paper gives a succinct review of dual-spinprojectile stability and some technologies relating to them. It describes how the traditional stability factors from linear projectile theory are modified to better describe a controlled dual-spin projectile. Finally, it reviews works which have investigated how different aspects of a controlled dual-spin design can affect flight stability, primarily airframe structure and canard properties. A conclusion is given, highlighting important guidelines from the enclosed discussions.     

Physical and damping properties of kenaf fibre filled natural rubber/thermoplastic polyurethane composites

The paper presents the investigation of the effect of alkaline treatment of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) on physical and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) viscoelastic properties of kenaf fibre filled natural rubber (NR)/thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) composites. The treated kenaf fiber, NR and TPU were weighed and proportioned according to the required compositions and were blended using hot mixed Brabender machine. The polymer composites were then fabricated using the hot press to form a sample board. The sample was cut and prepared and water absorption, density, thickness swelling and DMA tests were performed. As far as physical properties are concerned, composites with the highest NR amount of shows the best results, which indicates good fiber bonding adhesion. The polymer composites with the highest amount of TPU shows the highest damping properties at high temperature.     

美陆军通用基金企业业务系统特点与启示

本文以美国陆军通用基金企业业务系统为研究对象,从后勤信息化建设发展历程、军费企业化管理特点和陆军财务转型重要举措三个方面介绍了该系统建设的有关背景,总结了与"军财工程"相比,通用基金企业业务系统存在的分配多个用户角色、实时共享数据和重视成本文化等多个突出特点,并提出与军队财务管理信息系统建设有关的六点启示,以期为推进军队财务信息化建设、提高军队财务信息化保障水平提供参考。     

基于Kullback-Leibler距离离散度的加权代理模型

复杂系统的仿真通常具有高维度、高计算量等特点,代理模型因其明晰的数学表达和良好的计算特性可用于逼近真实系统。加权模型对比单个代理模型来说,其稳定性和适应性更广。不同的代理模型其性能不一,根据特定指标,可以构造最优加权代理模型。基于代理模型预测分布以及Kullback-Leibler距离构造各子代理模型之间的离散度,并提出一种新的权函数构造方法。算例表明,该方法与最优子模型的精度相当,同时能提高对真实响应分布的逼近。     

便携式防空导弹反巡航导弹作战效能分析

采用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会提出的 ADC模型 ,对某型便携式防空导弹武器系统拦截巡航导弹的作战效能进行了详细的数学建模和分析计算 ,并得出了计算结果。从计算结果可以看出 ,作为低空反巡航导弹的武器系统 ,某型便携式防空导弹具有较高的作战效能 ,在多发联射拦截巡航导弹时其作战效能还会有进一步的提高 ,因此具有大力推广的价值。     

动态通用查询方法的设计与实现

分析了在管理信息系统中研制通用查询技术的必要性和重要性 ,探讨了它的设计方法和实现技术 ,实际工程的应用证明了它的有效性。     

Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.