浅析我国新阶段下的“三农”问题

三农(农民、农业、农村)在中国城市化、工业化、现代化过程中具有不可逾越的地位,有着不可低估的人口影响、空间影响、素质影响和政治影响。由于受经济、产业、制度的制约,出现了农民增长缓慢、农业发展动力不足、农村剩余劳动力过多等“三农”问题。新的国际、国内发展阶段又加剧了“三农”问题,使其成为影响我国经济持续健康发展的重要因素。“三农”问题的解决需要新的思路、新的方法和新的措施,这要求我们必须从以下几方面思考:大力发展小城镇,转移农村剩余劳动力;调整产业结构,提高农产品市场竞争力;大力发展教育,增加劳动力的人力资本存量;加大对“三农”的支持力度,创造良好的发展环境。     

高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法.对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验,采用了相关系数法;对于母体分布的参数估计,则分别采用了最小二乘估计(LSE)和极大似然估计(MLE);最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程,并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好.     

两栖装甲车辆车体应力试验分析

针对两栖装甲车辆装甲板裂纹现象,设计了表面应力测试试验.通过对某型两栖装甲车辆进行试验,并对采集的数据处理分析,获得了车体裂纹频发位置的主应力分布,验证了装甲板表面主应力是导致产生裂纹的主要因素,为解决裂纹问题提供了理论依据.     

残余应力作用下脆性膜/基材料的断裂行为

假定膜内的残余拉应力足以使膜发生开裂,利用膜/基材料中含弹性界面层的剪滞模型,研究了脆性膜/基材料在残余应力作用下的开裂行为特征,探讨了膜内正应力、膜/基界面切应力的分布规律,获得了膜的裂纹密度与残余应力大小之间的解析表达式。在裂纹密度、材料的力学和几何参数确定的情况下,该解析表达式可以用来评估残余应力的大小。最后,分析了膜的裂纹密度与残余应力、膜的厚度、弹性模量、断裂强度以及界面层的切变模量之间的内在关联,绘出了这些参数影响膜裂纹密度的变化曲线。     

火箭发动机可靠性增长评估的Bayes方法

针对火箭发动机分阶段试验,每阶段试验后对发动机出现的故障分析、归零的情况,提出等效试验数据的概念,结合Bayes方法对系统的可靠性增长试验进行评估,并在此基础上给出可靠度的增长分析,最后给出实例进行说明。     

The interrelationship between defence spending,public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between defence spending, other components of public spending and economic growth for the 1952–2012 period in China using Granger causality tests and generalised impulse response functions based on vector error correction models. The empirical results reveal two long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables and also show that defence spending inversely and unidirectionally Granger impacts economic growth. Furthermore, empirical findings point to a trade-off relationship between defence spending and public expenditures in China. From a policy maker’s perspective, the findings reported herein imply that a decrease in defence spending may stimulate economic growth.     

Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach

The economic growth effects of military expenditure have been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. Theories on the economic impacts of military expenditure greatly differ and include arguments that they either enhance economic growth or crowd out productive investments. Empirical literature on defence expenditure and economic growth nexus generally employs linear specifications to investigate the impact of defence expenditures on economic growth. Although it is now well established that many economic variables may have a non-linear data-generating mechanism, it seems that this reality has long been neglected in empirical work on defence–growth nexus. This paper attempts to fill this gap by employing non-linear panel data models to examine the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time period 1988–2012. Results show that the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is nonlinear such that the state of the economy actually determines the effect of the former on the latter. This is important not only in showing asymmetric relationship between these variables but also in revealing the reasons of mixed results of earlier literature.     

Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

钢筋钢纤维混凝土既有裂缝梁中钢纤维阻裂作用有限元分析

通过建立钢筋钢纤维混凝土既有裂缝梁和钢筋混凝土既有裂缝梁的有限元分析模型,借助ANSYS分析了两种梁在荷载作用下的裂缝尖端处应力、裂缝宽度增幅和挠度并作出对比。分析结果表明钢纤维对裂缝开展有很好的阻止作用,而且能明显缓和裂缝尖端处应力,减小梁的挠度。     

钢筋混凝土外粘钢板结构裂缝的有限元数值模拟

随着高技术武器的不断发展,防护工程正面临着前所未有的威胁和挑战,新型防护结构及材料已经成为研究的热点。针对这一实际背景,运用ANSYS大型有限元软件,采用数值模拟的方法对普通钢筋混凝土结构和外粘钢板混凝土结构在相同均布面荷载作用下的变形、钢筋应力以及结构裂缝的开展情况进行了比较。结果表明外粘钢板的钢筋混凝土结构能够大大增强结构的抗力,并且有效的抑制了裂缝的开展。