CHOOSING GENOCIDE: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES ON THE DISTURBING RATIONALITY OF RACE MURDER

An economic theory of genocide is presented with application to Rwanda‐1994. The theory considers ‘macro’ conditions under which an authority group chooses genocide and ‘micro’ conditions that facilitate the spread of genocide. From the macro perspective, a bargaining model highlights four rational explanations for an authority’s choice of genocide: prevention of loss of power, indivisibility, elimination of a persistent rival, and political bias. From the micro perspective, an evolutionary game model shows how supporters of genocide gain the upper hand in group dynamics over resisters and bystanders. The theory and application suggest that the conditions for genocide are not exceptional.     

Burden Sharing in CSDP Military Operations

Abstract

Military burden sharing has been a subject of repeated debates in NATO and the UN. Despite more modest goals, the European Union’s (EU) Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) has experienced no fewer difficulties in garnering men, money, and materiel. While this may not come as a surprise, the fact that some EU member states have carried disproportionate shares of the burden of CSDP operations is a puzzle that remains unaccounted for. We address this gap by analyzing determinants of contribution levels to CSDP operations. In employing an innovative multi-method design that combines insights from collection action theory with those from integrated theories of military burden sharing, our results indicate that EU countries tend to contribute in positive disproportion with their capabilities when they have a strong peacekeeping tradition and elections are distant. In contrast, they undercontribute when small trade volumes with the area of operations combine with a weak peacekeeping tradition.     

复杂武器中人系整合分析与评估前沿技术研究进展

文章介绍了以美国为主的军事发达国家的人系整合分析与评估的前沿技术、相应的平台及它们的应用情况,也介绍了我国在该方向的研究现状与不足。最后对武器装备人系整合设计分析与评估提出了发展建议。     

功率调节装置分析及改进研究

通过对原功率调节装置存在问题的分析,提出了功率调节装置改进方案,描述了新动申调节装置的结构和新增功能．     

消防管理监督机制新设计

本文探讨了市场经济下的消防管理监督机制的设计,用博弃理论构造了一个消防管理监督模型。提出了新时期消防管理监督应以防火检查和经济惩罚相结合的监管机制。     

舰船装备维修中的维修级别分析

论述了维修级别分析的思路和方法,运用分析决策树模型和经济性分析模型,重点研究了面向装备的维修级别分析方法,并结合实例讨论了舰船装备维修决策中维修级别分析方法的应用．     

主成因分析法在柴油机热力性能故障诊断中的应用

本文介绍了一种用于柴油机故障诊断的新方法——主成因分析法(P.C.A),它建立在柴油机故障试验的基础上。文章给出了故障诊断的建模方法并设计了柴油机诊断软件。故障诊断结果表明这种方法用于柴油机的故障诊断是可行的。     

带约束的线性模型的参数估计及其效率分析

考虑带有齐次线性等式约束的线性模型在设计阵X和约束阵H满足适当条件时,给出了参数的约束LS估计与BLU估计的简洁表达式,较合理地定义了相对于的相对效率e,最后得到了的一个下界。     

Comparable deterrence – target,criteria and purpose

The last decade has seen several advances in the study of deterrence. These advances have sparked some strong disagreements regarding interpretation of the models and what their contributions signify. This paper appraises the discussions from a model theoretic perspective. It is argued that when comparing rivalling models three aspects; (i) target, (ii) criteria and (iii) type of purpose should be taken into account in order to make a proper appraisal. Informed by these aspects it is evident that the three deterrence models analysed address different aspects, in different ways and to different ends. From this perspective, the so-called Perfect Deterrence model must be recognised as a clear advancement in the research field. Model comparison will always be context relative and a plurality of models should be viewed favourably.     

香港地区2013—2016年地基GPS大气可降水量与实际降雨量的比较

本文在利用ECMWF的数据对由GPS观测资料计算的大气可降水量（Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV）进行精度评定的基础上,基于谐波分析的方法对香港地区不同方位5个测站2013~2016年连续4年的PWV(GPS)和实际降雨量进行比较。结果表明：地基PWV(GPS)相对于PWV(ECMWF)月均值的均方根在1.02 mm-3.07 mm之间,偏差在-2.14 mm-2.52 mm之间。地基PWV(GPS)和实际降雨量都呈现明显的周期性,两者每年峰值出现的时间有非常一致的对应关系。PWV的峰值出现在7月,振幅在14.65 mm与16.79 mm之间;实际降雨量峰值同样出现在7月,振幅在147.64 mm与211.01 mm之间。5个测站PWV年增长率为正,表明近4年香港地区PWV呈现出增长的趋势;而实际降雨量年增长率除HKOH测站为正外,其余站点均为负,总体呈现出逐年减少的趋势。