THE FRAGILE TRADITION OF NUCLEAR RESTRAINT

The Tradition of Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons by T.V. Paul. Stanford University Press, 2009. 319 pages, $29.95.     

武警部队抢险救灾法律制度的完善

近年来,我国频繁发生历史罕见的自然灾害。在抢险救灾中,武警部队已成为一支重要的突击力量。按照习主席关于“武警部队要勇于承担抢险救灾等急难险重任务”的重要指示,武警法律工作者必须适应武警部队职能拓展的需要,在借鉴国外成功经验的基础上,尽快完善武警部队抢险救灾应急法律制度,切实提高部队执行抢险救灾任务的能力。     

The Success of the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit and its Contribution to the Nonproliferation Regime

The 2014 Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in The Hague was a resounding success, both in organizational terms and in terms of substance. The new substance can be found in the Communiqué, as well as in innovative joint statements by participants, all of which may be considered as implementation of actions decided upon in the Final Document of the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The next two years in the NSS process cannot be business as usual. This viewpoint makes some suggestions for NSS states to undertake between now and the final summit in 2016, including preparations for winding down the NSS process as we know it.     

The Odyssey of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

This study examines the failures of the William J. Clinton and Barack Obama administrations to secure ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It applies an integrated analytical framework for assessing treaty ratification that builds upon previous research in order to understand why the Clinton administration failed to achieve CTBT ratification in 1999 and why the Obama administration has so far failed to advance the treaty in the Senate. The study concludes that CTBT ratification, despite Obama administration pledges of support, remains highly unlikely. Finally, the study analyzes the common domestic political factors present in both cases and suggests areas for further research.     

舰载预警机防空预警探测距离需求分析

提出了一种舰载预警机防空预警探测距离需求确定方法。首先对舰载预警机执行防空预警作战进行了描述,为满足拦截机对敌突击飞机进行成功拦截,预警机的预警探测距必须大于一个阈值,即所需最小预警探测距离。其次分析了舰载预警机所需最小防空预警探测距离与敌突击飞机速度、航母防空拦截机响应时间和速度之间的关系,构建了舰载预警机防空所需最小预警探测距离计算模型;最后应用典型案例,计算了多种防空想定下舰载预警机所需最小预警探测距离,仿真分析了敌突击飞机速度和航母防空拦截机速度对舰载预警机防空所需最小预警探测距离的影响。论文的研究结果为舰载预警机装备研制和作战使用提供决策依据。     

基于抽象隐马尔可夫模型的CGF路径规划识别

路径规划识别是一种以位置信息为输入的在线识别。为了使CGF能在仿真中识别对手的路径和终点目标,在分析路径规划层次的基础上引入了抽象隐马尔可夫模型的识别框架。针对标准模型在对手更改终点目标和自上而下规划时无法识别的问题,提出了一种顶层策略可变的抽象隐马尔可夫模型。为模型的顶层策略增加初始分布和策略终止变量,更改了策略终止变量间的依赖关系,使下层策略能被强制终止。给出了改进后DBN结构,并通过推导条件概率更新和RB变量抽样流程实现了模型的近似推理。仿真实验表明,改进模型能准确识别给定环境下的各类典型航迹,不仅在终点目标不变时能较好地维持标准模型的识别准确率,在提供足够的观测数据后还能很好地解决变目标识别问题。     

Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse

This article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states’ interests and interactions within the NPT’s framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty’s enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.     

Stalking the Secure Second Strike: Intelligence,Counterforce, and Nuclear Strategy

Secure second strike nuclear forces are frequently held to be easy to procure. Analysts have long argued that targeting intelligence against relocatable targets like submarine launched and land mobile ballistic missiles is difficult to obtain. However, the scholarly consensus on intelligence for counterforce operations is seriously overdrawn. Both during and after the Cold War, the United States developed substantial intelligence capabilities to track and target submarines and mobile missiles. These efforts achieved important and under-appreciated success. Second strike forces have been far more vulnerable than most analysts are willing to credit.     

Spies,advisors, and grunts: Film portrayals of counterinsurgency in Vietnam

Vietnam was a complex conflict, which historians and political scientists have struggled to understand. Some of the bitterest disputes in the historiography revolve around the US approach to counterinsurgency in Vietnam. Many different facets of the war have received the attention of filmmakers, and an examination of their work suggests new ways of thinking about the conflict. This article considers film portrayals of three phases of the Vietnam War – firstly, the early period of ‘political action’, then the advisory period, and finally the Americanization of the war after 1965. It suggests that by examining the experiences of participants in each of these phases, Vietnam War cinema helps to illustrate the problems that faced various American approaches to counterinsurgency in the conflict. Combined with the importance of films in determining popular perceptions of both historical conflicts and counterinsurgency in general, it suggests that they are worthy subjects of study and critique.     

弘扬伟大建党精神奋进世界一流征程

以“坚持真理、坚守理想,践行初心、担当使命,不怕牺牲、英勇斗争,对党忠诚、不负人民”为内涵的伟大建党精神,是中国共产党的精神之源。这一精神内涵丰富、意境深远,具有鲜明的理论特征和时代价值,不仅指导了过去一百年中国共产党人带领全中国人民推进革命、建设、改革的伟大实践,更是对中华民族实现第二个百年奋斗目标具有深远的指导意义。只有深刻认识和把握伟大建党精神的科学内涵,才能战胜前进道路上的一切艰难险阻,继续谦虚谨慎、戒骄戒躁,继续艰苦奋斗、锐意进取,锲而不舍把建设世界一流军队的伟大事业推向新征程。