潜艇核事故应急评价模式研究

评价模式是核事故应急评价系统的核心．在理论分析的基础上,建立了适合基地特点的潜艇核事故应急评价模式及参数,并通过假想事故对所建立的评价模式进行了校核．结果表明,该模式具有良好的可靠性和可行性,适合基地的特点,满足核潜艇核事故应急评价的要求．根据所建模式,还编制了一套实用、可靠、灵活、方便的应用软件．     

蒙特卡洛剖分投影法的爆震弹破片平均比动能评估

为了评估爆震弹封装壳体破片致死、致伤半径,并削弱其平均比动能,基于蒙特卡洛剖分投影法建立破片平均比动能计算模型。通过LS-DYNA及自编程联合仿真方法对爆震弹自然破片、半预制破片比动能计算模型进行仿真求解,获得了全破片全时域的质量分布、初始速度、垂直靶分布、平均比动能阈值及安全半径等指标。结果表明:在相同装药参数下,半预制破片相比于自然破片,质量分布、初始速度阈值更低且更集中;在小于等于2.5 m范围内半预制破片平均比动能阈值比自然破片更低,大于2.5 m后半预制破片平均比动能阈值比自然破片更高。相比于自然破片,采用半预制破片可显著减小爆震弹破片的致死半径,但并不能明显增大其安全半径。     

A novel signal feature extraction technology based on empirical wavelet transform and reverse dispersion entropy

Feature extraction is an important part of signal processing, which is significant for signal detection, classification, and recognition. The nonlinear dynamic analysis method can extract the nonlinear characteristics of signals and is widely used in different fields. Reverse dispersion entropy (RDE) proposed by us recently, as a nonlinear dynamic analysis method, has the advantages of fast computing speed and strong anti-noise ability, which is more suitable for measuring the complexity of signal than traditional permutation entropy (PE) and dispersion entropy (DE). Empirical wavelet transform (EWT), based on the theory of wavelet analysis, can decompose a complex non-stationary signal into a number of empirical wavelet functions (EWFs) with compact support set spectrum, which has better decomposition performance than empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and its improved algorithms. Considering the advantages of RDE and EWT, on the one hand, we introduce EWT into the field of underwater acoustic signal processing and fault diagnosis to improve the signal decomposition accuracy; on the other hand, we use RDE as the features of EWFs to improve the signal separability and stability. Finally, we propose a novel signal feature extraction technology based on EWT and RDE in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed feature extraction technology can effectively extract the complexity features of actual signals. Moreover, it also has higher distinguishing ability for different types of signals than five latest feature extraction technologies.     

Global planning of accelerated degradation tests based on exponential dispersion degradation models

The accelerated degradation test (ADT) is an efficient tool for assessing the lifetime information of highly reliable products. However, conducting an ADT is very expensive. Therefore, how to conduct a cost-constrained ADT plan is a great challenging issue for reliability analysts. By taking the experimental cost into consideration, this paper proposes a semi-analytical procedure to determine the total sample size, testing stress levels, the measurement frequencies, and the number of measurements (within a degradation path) globally under a class of exponential dispersion degradation models. The proposed method is also extended to determine the global planning of a three-level compromise plan. The advantage of the proposed method not only provides better design insights for conducting an ADT plan, but also provides an efficient algorithm to obtain a cost-constrained ADT plan, compared with conventional optimal plans by grid search algorithms.     

入射频率对高功率微波与等离子体相互作用的影响分析

通过建立等离子体中的波动方程、电子传递方程和重物质传递方程,研究了等离子体对高功率微波传输特性的影响。研究了高功率微波与等离子体相互作用中产生的电子密度和透射电场的变化过程,并重点分析了变化过程中入射波频率产生的影响。研究结果表明,在相互作用过程中,等离子体中的电子密度和透射电场在一定条件下会发生阶跃变化,即等离子体区域平均电子数密度会在极短的时间内由1×10~9m~(-3)增加到1×10~(19)m~(-3),平均电场强度也会由初始场强跃变为零,并且这种变化的产生存在一定的入射阈值场强和最低产生时间。当入射电磁波的频率不同时,产生阶跃变化所需的场强阈值和最低产生时间就会变得不同,高功率微波与等离子体相互作用中存在一定的色散效应。在所考虑的范围内,阈值场强随入射波频率线性增长,而最低产生时间随电磁波频率呈非线性增长变化。     

Spatial Distribution of Minority Communities and Terrorism: Domestic Concentration versus Transnational Dispersion

Qualitative studies of terrorist movements frequently highlight the importance of diaspora communities as important factors in producing and sustaining terrorist activity in countries. The underlying theoretical argument is that bifurcation of tight-knit minority communities between countries nurtures separatist or irredentist sentiments among affected community members, thus prompting terrorist activity, while minority community members in other countries might mobilize financial and political resources to support terrorist activity among their compatriots. In this study, we empirically test whether transnational dispersion, versus domestic concentration, of minority communities in countries produces higher incidents of terrorism. Conducting a series of negative binomial estimations on a reshaped database of around 170 countries from 1981 to 2006, derived from the Minorities at Risk database and the Global Terrorism Database, we determine that both transnational dispersion of kin minority communities and domestic concentration of minorities within countries increase terrorism and that transnational dispersion is a particularly robust predictor of terrorist attacks.     

子弹散布中心正态总体分布参数的融合估计

对带有均匀抛撒子弹头的常规导弹的命中精度评定 ,其关键在于子弹散布中心分布参数的准确估计。通常的方法由每次试验的子弹落点数据获得一个子弹散布中心 ,再由少数的几个散布中心数据、运用经典的统计方法求散布中心的正态总体分布参数 ,其不足之处在于小样本条件下采伪的概率很高。考虑到子弹散布中心只是子弹落点数据的一阶矩 ,并不能充分表达子弹落点数据所蕴含的信息量 ,而子弹落点个数远远大于导弹试验的次数 ,子弹落点所蕴含的信息比子弹散布中心所蕴含的信息要丰富得多。鉴于此 ,研究了一种子弹散布中心总体分布参数融合估计的新方法     

蒙特卡洛法在火箭简控系统设计中的应用

建立了火箭弹道仿真模型。用蒙特卡洛法对简控火箭在无控条件下进行了模拟打靶。从其所有成功子样中统计出了火箭运动参数在主动段一系列时间点上的容许偏差。分别以上述时间点为起点，综合考虑运动参数偏差及其它随机偏差的影响，对落点散布进行了仿真分析。找出了合适的简控时间终点及其运动参数容许的偏差范围，为简控系统的设计提供了直接依据。     

武装直升机火箭弹对地攻击方式与散布的关系

根据某型武装直升机火箭弹对地靶试数据,计算了火箭弹弹着点的中间偏差,通过弹道计算反推出该机载武器系统的散布角,再由散布角计算了不同攻击方式下火箭弹的弹着点散布,得出了攻击方式与弹着点散布的关系,最后拟合出散布的通用计算式,为飞行员提供了一个如何选择武装直升机火箭武器对地攻击方式以形成所需散布的依据.     

武装直升机装备子母弹作战效能分析

提出了一种分析武装直升机作战效能的方法——概率分析法,并建立了机动目标坦克的数学模型,子弹散布模型,利用蒙特卡罗方法计算了子母弹杀伤概率Ｐ杀伤,并分析了影响武装直升机作战效能的相关因素。