灰色系统理论在火灾预测中的应用

简述了灰色系统理论的基本概念与方法,并着重阐述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点和其建模过程,并将其应用于实际火灾预测之中。     

刑罚轻缓化之理性思考

刑罚轻缓化是当今世界发展的潮流,但我国由于历来受传统重刑思想影响,对刑罚轻缓化思想是排斥的。要改变这种状况,就要对刑罚轻缓化的基本理论进行研究,以使我国的领导层和普通大众对刑罚轻缓化有一个理性的认识,改变我国的重刑刑罚结构和法官量刑偏重的重刑情结,接受刑罚轻缓化思想,以顺应世界发展趋势。     

集贸市场火灾隐患及整改对策

集贸市场作为社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分,其消防安全不容忽视。分析了当前集贸市场普遍存在的火灾隐患,从集贸市场建筑消防设计、集贸市场消防管理两个方面探讨了集贸市场火灾隐患的整改对策。     

Remotely Piloted Aircraft,Risk, and Killing as Sacrifice: The Cost of Remote Warfare

In this paper I argue that a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) pilot’s act of killing remotely, when it is done in the defense of another person, can be viewed as an act of sacrifice. This argument concludes from two premises. First, the RPA pilot faces psychological risk to self by carrying out such an action; second, the RPA pilot is motivated to some significant degree by something other than self-interest. Moreover, I challenge both the view that RPA represent merely an incremental development in technology yielding an incremental expansion of the distance between the war-fighter and the target and the view that RPA is revolutionary in some fundamental sense. I instead argue that, based upon the natural geometric boundary imposed by the earth’s shape, RPA have maximized the physical distance between the war-fighter and the target and, over time, this fact will change, not only the psychological effects on the RPA pilot, but also the way we view killing and distance in general. When taken together, these two broad claims, that other-defense can justify killing in war and that there is a psychological cost paid by remote killers, yield a conception of remote killing as an act of sacrifice that will inform the broader conversation about ethics, risk, killing, and RPA.     

Nuclear weapons and alliance institutions in the era of President Trump

The swearing in of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States presages, at the very least, a period of flux in American strategy with respect to the relationship between nuclear weapons and alliances. In this response to three thoughtful rejoinders to our article, “Nuclear weapons, the United States and alliances in Europe and Asia: Toward an institutional perspective,” we clarify key aspects of our argument and discuss why alliance institutions are likely to be relatively robust in the face of change, how they can influence national decision-making, and argue that they may exert a moderating influence over the new administration.     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia

In recent years, headline grabbing increases in the Indian defense budget have raised concerns that India’s on-going military modernization threatens to upset the delicate conventional military balance vis-à-vis Pakistan. Such an eventuality is taken as justification for Islamabad’s pursuit of tactical-nuclear weapons and other actions that have worrisome implications for strategic stability on the subcontinent. This article examines the prospects for Pakistan’s conventional deterrence in the near to medium term, and concludes that it is much better than the pessimists allege. A host of factors, including terrain, the favorable deployment of Pakistani forces, and a lack of strategic surprise in the most likely conflict scenarios, will mitigate whatever advantages India may be gaining through military modernization. Despite a growing technological edge in some areas, Indian policymakers cannot be confident that even a limited resort to military force would achieve a rapid result, which is an essential pre-condition for deterrence failure.     

Missile Strategy in a Post-Nuclear Age

While the arrival of nuclear weapons coincided roughly with the development of short, medium, intermediate, and eventually intercontinental missiles, the contribution of missile technology to the deterrence equation is often lost. If nuclear weapons were eliminated, even new generation missiles with conventional payloads could struggle to render effective deterrence. But some of the physical and psychological effects commonly ascribed to nuclear weapons could still be in play. And in a world without nuclear weapons, thinking about the use and control of force from the nuclear age would also deserve renewed attention.     

辅助通道参数模型估计射电天文抗干扰方法

针对单通道射电天文抗干扰方法在观测数据干噪比较低情况下的干扰消除性能降低甚至失效的问题,通过引入辅助天线观测提出了一种基于参数模型估计的抗干扰方法。该方法利用辅助天线所接收到的具有较高干噪比的观测数据建立干扰信号参数的估计模型,同时通过构建主辅通道参数差异性模型对估计模型进行修正,实现对干扰信号参数的精确估计,达到消除干扰信号的目的。仿真实验表明,相比于单通道方法,改进后的方法在解决低干噪比条件下的射电天文抗干扰问题方面具有更广泛的适用范围。     

浅析内装修工程防排烟系统设计的常见问题

在内装修工程中,出于减少建设资金投入、缩短施工周期等原因,导致防排烟系统设置不当或者随意改动原有系统的情况时有发生,由此产生诸多不符合规范要求的隐患.结合工作中的案例对此问题进行分析,指出建设单位不重视、设计单位未严格按规范设计是产生问题的重要原因,在此基础上提出了相应的建议,以引起相关单位的重视.