Insurgency and Violent Extremism in Pakistan

Pakistan has an uneven history of dealing with insurgencies and extremism. This article identifies the various campaigns and policies employed to defeat militants and deal with violent extremism. It describes the major anti-state groups and how Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders, relying on the related strategies of selectivity, gradualism and containment, have allowed militancy and terrorism to thrive. This article finds that while the elites and the public may have belatedly come to appreciate the existential internal threats these groups pose to the country, there are strong reasons to doubt the state’s full commitment to its promises to take meaningful action.     

Expendable soldiers

Foreign Legions in the generic sense have evolved in ways that would surprise Beau Geste. Not only are more foreigners or recent immigrants enlisting in Western military forces, but also the post-Cold War era has seen the revival of warlord militias and Private Military Companies. Western militaries, in particular that of the United States, have also sought to increase their strategic reach through security assistance to regional military forces. While there have been some successes, security assistance has proven to have its limitations, not to mention unintended consequences for civil military relations, democracy promotion, and military efficiency.     

基于漏搜信息的剩余水雷评估模型

在声纳搜索水雷任务中,为提高剩余雷数估计的准确性,加强作战辅助决策能力,针对现有评估模型未考虑漏搜区和重叠区,评估结果误差和离散性较大的问题,提出一种修正发现雷数的方法：对任务区建立网格,根据记录航迹获得的覆盖次数分布情况,从中提取出漏搜信息,并用其修正发现雷数向量。该方法有效解决了评估向量误差大、维数偏低的缺陷,显著提高了合理性。对典型情况的大量仿真试验证明,该方法能大幅度提高评估结果的准确性,降低离散性,并具有更强的适应性。     

基于网络分析法的炮兵网上对抗系统效能评估

从为炮兵网上对抗系统提供发展方向的需求出发,分析了影响炮兵网上对抗系统效能的一系列指标因素;应用系统结构模型理论,建立了评估体系的ISM模型;运用层次分析法进行分析。通过对评估体系中的层次结构、要素的相对重要程度的计算和评价,提出了基于网络分析法的改进模型,得出了更加贴近实际的最终极限排序,为炮兵网上对抗系统效评估提供了较为科学的参考依据。     

Unemployed youth: ‘time bombs’ or engines for growth?

While popular narratives about success in South Africa focus on individual effort, accidents of birth continue to determine life prospects. Inequalities in early childhood development, health, and education narrow the range of possibilities that young people have available to them, and this impacts on their risk appetite, including, through the workings of the maturing brain, a propensity to violence, substance abuse, and unsafe sex. New technology offers young people an unprecedented ability to organise and network. This fact, combined with high levels of youth dissatisfaction, unemployment, and marginalisation, leads many to worry that the young are “ticking time bombs”. While there certainly are risks, great unused pools of youth labour also present an opportunity for engaging them in social advancement programmes. Structured youth service is a tried and tested policy option that, when implemented as part of an integrated youth development strategy, can enlist thousands of young people in devoting their considerable energies to leadership for the public good.     

Critics gone wild: Counterinsurgency as the root of all evil

The Western interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have produced a heated polemic concerning the merits and demerits of counterinsurgency – the operational approach underpinning both campaigns. The two books reviewed here provide a good summation of the arguments against counterinsurgency: it is not a strategy and will fail when mistaken as such; its theory does not make intervention and war significantly easier; and even the most successful counterinsurgency campaigns have been bloody, violent, and protracted. Yet as this review highlights, beyond these central points, criticism of counterinsurgency is too often off the mark in its approach and totalizing in its pretentions. There is much to criticize and an urgent need to learn from past campaigns, yet bold claims and broad generalizations can mislead rather than enlighten. The analysis is particularly unhelpful when the definition of the central issue at hand – counterinsurgency – is being unwittingly or deliberately distorted. In the end, these two books form a poor basis for the debate that must now take place, because they are too ideological in tone, too undisciplined in approach, and therefore too unqualified in what they finally say.     

基于PEPA的防空通信系统抗毁特性分析

通信系统的抗毁性能是分析作战系统能力的一项重要指标。本文分析了防空通信系统的组织结构和对抗特点,利用性能评价过程代数（PEPA）描述了防空通信系统的状态演化,提出了基于PEPA的防空通信系统抗毁特性分析方法。通过具体案例,对通信系统的组织结构、抗击软硬杀伤的能力进行建模和仿真验证。实验结果表明,PEPA方法适用于防空通信系统的建模与分析,能够实现对防空通信系统的结构进行对抗过程的建模;通信系统的不同要素对抗毁性能的影响不同,可以采取有效策略以提高防空通信系统的抗毁能力。     

ATAM方法及其在C4ISR系统体系结构评价中的应用

ATAM(Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method)方法是一种评价信息系统体系结构级设计的方法,它通过对诸如性能、可更改性、可靠性、安全性等多个质量属性的分析来确定体系结构设计中的折衷点,从而降低设计风险.介绍了ATAM方法的基本概念、步骤,并给出了该方法在C4ISR系统体系结构评价中的一个应用实例.     

TBM突防能力评估方法

根据战术弹道导弹(TBM)和反战术弹道导弹(ATBM)的基本作用机理,建立了战术弹道导弹突防反战术弹道导弹的能力评估模型,并提出了适用于战术弹道导弹的若干突防措施。     

基于句子级BLEU指标挑选数据的半监督神经机器翻译

在单语语料的使用上,统计机器翻译可通过利用语言模型提高性能,而神经机器翻译很难通过这种方法有效利用单语语料.针对此问题,文中提出基于句子级双语评估替补(BLEU)指标挑选数据的半监督神经网络翻译模型.分别利用统计机器翻译和神经机器翻译模型对无标注数据生成候选翻译,然后通过句子级BLEU指标挑选单语候选翻译,加入到有标注的数据集中进行半监督联合训练.实验表明,文中方法能高效利用无标注的单语语料,在NIST汉英翻译任务上,相比仅使用精标的有标注数据单系统,文中方法BLEU值有所提升.