防空通信系统性能评价及抗毁性分析

分析了防空通信系统的组织结构和对抗特点,利用性能评价过程代数描述防空通信系统的状态演化,提出一种防空通信系统抗毁特性分析方法。通过具体案例,对通信系统的组织结构、抗击软硬杀伤的能力进行建模和仿真验证。实验结果表明,该方法适用于防空通信系统的建模与分析,能够实现对防空通信系统的结构进行对抗过程的建模;通信系统的不同要素对抗毁性能的影响不同,可以采取有效策略以提高防空通信系统的抗毁能力。     

基于PEPA的舰艇编队防空过程建模及分析

防空作战是大型水面舰艇编队的主要作战样式之一。本文运用PEPA（性能评价过程代数）方法对舰艇编队防空作战全过程进行有效建模,形式化描述了预警探测、情报传递、命令下达、防空拦截等作战主要过程。建立的PEPA模型具有层次化结构,考虑了要素间相互协作,体现了编队防空作战分布、并发的特点。通过对建立的PEPA模型进行性能指标选择和稳定状态分析,得到了不同因素对编队能力发挥的影响情况,获得了防空作战的基本要素组成。从而提供了一种解决舰艇编队问题的新方法。     

舰艇编队防空过程建模及分析

防空作战是大型水面舰艇编队的主要作战样式之一。运用PEPA(性能评价过程代数)方法对舰艇编队防空作战全过程进行有效建模,形式化描述了预警探测、情报传递、命令下达、防空拦截等作战主要过程。建立的PEPA模型具有层次化结构,考虑了要素间相互协作,体现了编队防空作战分布、并发的特点。通过对建立的PEPA模型进行性能指标选择和稳定状态分析,得到了不同因素对编队能力发挥的影响情况,获得了防空作战的基本要素组成,从而提供了一种解决舰艇编队问题的新方法。     

基于依赖网络理论的后勤指挥系统建模与抗毁性分析

从复杂网络的角度出发,将后勤指挥系统分为指挥网络和通信网络两个子系统,采用依赖网络理论对其依赖关系进行描述,建立了后勤指挥系统模型.分析了指挥节点和通信节点不同的失效过程并提出抗毁性算法.将仿真实验结果与传统单层网络建模方法的结果进行比较,表明基于依赖网络理论构建模型的方法和抗毁性算法可以应用于后勤指挥系统的抗毁性分析,且能进一步细化抗毁性评估的结果.     

区域防空作战体系网络拓扑结构分析与建模

在系统描述区域防空作战体系组成结构的基础上,通过对基于平台和基于网络2种不同模式的区域防空作战体系结构的分析,运用复杂网络理论分别构建了其网络拓扑结构模型,并对其网络特征参数进行分析比较。可以看出,同基于平台的区域防空作战体系相比,基于网络的区域防空作战体系的鲁棒性和抗毁性更强,更适合未来防空作战需求。     

卫星通信网络拓扑与抗毁性关系研究

本文分析了卫星通信的网络拓扑结构,研究了网络拓扑结构对系统抗毁性的影响,提出了网络生存性和网络抗毁性的指标,并针对军用卫星通信的现状,对抗毁性进行了分析,认为从抗毁性的角度,多星多级网络具有更好的抗毁性能。     

基于ARM的防空协同设备人机交互功能的设计

在防空作战领域内,对信息的实时性要求较高,各个武器平台和作战节点之间的协同配合日趋重要.防空作战已不再是单一兵器的对抗,已上升为防空体系的对抗.为适应国际军贸市场的需求,构建防空协同作战系统,研发某型防空协同控制设备.协同设备采用分布式无中心自组网技术设计,具有较强的易用性和抗毁性.其核心是通信控制及数据处理模块,包括通信控制管理单元、数据处理单元、时空服务单元、通信接口控制管理单元、人机交互单元、状态显示及告警单元.根据某军贸项目的总体要求,设计了一种基于ARM的模块,包括人机交互、状态显示、告警等功能.     

基于Petri网的防空群决策信息传输能力分析

决策信息传输能力的大小,直接决定着防空作战行动的作战效能,进而决定了防空作战的成败。针对防空群决策信息传输问题,用Petri网建模,从时效性和可靠性两个方面,对防空群的决策信息传输能力进行了分析,得到了不同指挥方式下的信息传输能力的度量。对防空群通信能力的分析和指挥体制的优化有一定的借鉴和指导意义。     

基于对抗的防空体系结构演化性概念建模

为定量研究空防体系对抗过程,基于对空防体系对抗相关研究方法分析,提出从体系结构角度研究空防体系对抗.通过阐述对抗条件下的防空体系结构演化性建模思想,提出空防体系对抗实质是一个防空体系结构“动态编成—对抗消耗—优化修复”动态循环演化过程.在此基础上,围绕其中3个环节进行防空体系结构演化性概念建模,以此为空防体系对抗定量建模研究提供一种新思路.     

地面防空作战信息对抗模型研究及仿真

在地面防空作战中,地空导弹和空中目标的对抗是一个动态的对抗过程。通过把模型分为自身状态和对对方的估计状态,建立了防空作战对抗模型,分析了导弹追击和目标逃避时的控制输入的选择原则。通过仿真,得到了较好的结论,体现了导弹和目标之间的对抗性,对进一步研究地面防空系统对抗性建模方法具有重要意义。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.