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31.
We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014 相似文献
32.
针对舰炮火控雷达高精度实时仿真建模的问题,运用高斯分布和正态平稳过程的两种误差序列生成方法,建立火控雷达简化仿真模型。通过对某火控雷达实测数据误差的统计及时序相关性分析,完成误差序列仿真生成与验证,给出了实现舰炮火控雷达探测误差仿真的优选方法。实践证明,正态平稳模型的误差生成方法可以有效满足新型舰炮仿真试验火控雷达建模要求。 相似文献
33.
We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face. 相似文献
34.
提出一种计算复杂目标高频区RCS的实用方法。首先采用3DStudioMax对装甲车进行三角面元模拟,然后运用路德维格积分[1]和物理绕射理论(PTD)计算目标的雷达散射截面积,通过对方柱RCS的计算,验证了所提方法的有效性,最后给出了C波段和X波段不同极化的装甲车和坦克RCS的方位分布图。 相似文献
35.
大地靶场地面散射特性的测试方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过对大地靶场地面电磁环境特性的分析,依照大地靶场对武器系统工作状态的影响,提出了大地靶场地面散射特性的测试原理。同时对测量方法、测量系统等,也作了具体的分析论证,这对武器系统的研制、生产、试验等环节及地杂波特性的研究具有重要的意义。 相似文献
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涂覆型RAM的研究现状和发展趋势 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
涂覆型RAM 技术是隐身技术中的重要技术之一,并在隐身武器系统中得到广泛应用。首先分析阐述了涂覆型RAM 的重要地位,然后介绍了铁氧体RAM、超细金属粉末RAM、高分子聚合物RAM 的研究和应用现状。最后介绍了手性材料、纳米材料、多频谱RAM 及智能隐身材料的最新研究状况 相似文献
39.
王安稳 《海军工程大学学报》1994,(4)
在本文中,用应力函数和中面法向位移表示的锥壳稳定方程被变化成为一对无奇异性的简化方程,然后得出了方程的幂级数形式的一般解。计算结果与已有的实验结果符合良好。计算分析了8种边界情况下边界条件对静水外压临界载荷的影响及解的收敛性。 相似文献
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