Military expenditure and economic growth: peru 1970–1996

The present study examines the effects of military expenditure on growth in Peru in the period from 1970 to 1996. By using a Deger‐type Simultaneous Equations Model it is possible to break up the net effect into supply‐ and demand‐side influences. The former consist of positive externalities of defence activities on the other sectors of the economy, while the latter can be described as crowding‐out of civilian investment. Estimations find the supply‐side effects to be insignificantly different from zero, while the crowding‐out effect of defence spending is significant and substantial. It is thereby established that defence expenditure has a negative overall effect on economic growth in Peru. Although several caveats – including specification problems of the Deger model, the quality of the data used, a relatively small sample and the presence of autocorrelation in the estimations – must be considered, these results turn out to be quite robust with respect to estimation methods (3SLS, 2SLS, OLS) and slight modifications to the model. They are also consistent with previous empirical findings from other countries and cross sectional studies.     

舰船综合仿真标准体系探究

针对目前国内外仿真标准缺乏和零乱的现状对舰船综合仿真标准体系进行深入分析和研究,首先分析了国内外现状、我国舰船仿真领域的不足和仿真标准发展需求,接着对舰船综合仿真标准体系的技术思路、研究方法等做了初步性的探索,建立了舰船综合仿真技术参考模型,并据此初步建立了舰船综合仿真系统标准体系框架,用以指导制定具体的标准。     

基于控制环的作战网络对抗模型

战争的手段和用兵之道总是随着技术的发展而变化,借鉴网络中心战的思想,深入分析了分布式作战网络的生成机制,及其对抗行为的微观和宏观机制。在此基础上,针对信息时代由信息优势获得作战效能的本质特点,提出了控制环和行动节奏的概念,刻画不同对抗体系信息效能的差异;进而提出了作战网络的对抗模型和度量作战网络的效能指标。通过仿真实验分析,对比研究了不同网络结构(传统型、协同式和分布式)、不同攻击模式(随机打击、指控优先打击和度优先打击)对交战过程和结果的影响。     

基于系统动力学的导弹体系作战效能仿真研究

简要介绍了系统动力学的概念;分析了导弹作战体系的构成以及各子系统对体系的贡献效能;针对导弹体系对抗作战效能仿真,运用系统动力学方法,建立了导弹体系对抗的系统动力学模型;并对在不同对策条件下的仿真结果进行了分析,为导弹体系结构优化、体系能力的提高提供了依据。     

仿真系统可信度分析

系统仿真可信度研究是合理利用系统仿真结果的前提。分析了系统仿真可信度的研究现状,提出了利用层次分析法进行可信度评估的思路,阐述了仿真试验结果与飞行试验结果进行静态一致性检验和动态一致性检验的方法。讨论了静态一致性检验的置信度,给出了置信度与弃真概率和采伪概率的关系,为提高和考核系统仿真精度奠定了基础。     

Modeling and simulation of muzzle flow field of railgun with metal vapor and arc

During the electromagnetic railgun launching process, there will be a complex flow field with high temperature in the muzzle area because of the high-speed friction, transition and secondary arc-ignition. This paper models the muzzle area of railgun when the projectile is far away from the muzzle, and the dynamic simulation of the flow field with secondary arc in the muzzle area is carried out based on the magneto hydrodynamic equations. Meanwhile, a multi-component plasma transport model is used to analyze the muzzle arc plasma flow process of the mixed gas of Al vapor and the air. Furthermore, the pressure boundary conditions are fitted by the dynamic mesh simulation results. The current and voltage of the muzzle are obtained through the emission experiment of the railgun experimental prototype. We load the current data into the simulation model and the voltage of experiments and simulations are compared, which proves the accuracy of the simulation. Then the plasma temperature and the composition of Al vapor in the muzzle flow process are analyzed in-depth.     

低速大雷诺数混合飞艇气动性能分析

针对混合飞艇体积巨大同时气动外形复杂使得现有条件的风洞试验很难精确测量其气动性能的问题,开展了适用于混合飞艇气动性能分析的计算流体力学(CFD)的数值分析方法研究。考虑混合飞艇低速大雷诺数的特点,将变分多尺度方法 (VMS)与动态Smagorinsky大涡模拟(LES)模型相结合,提出了组合的VMSLES湍流模型。将基于RANS方法和LES方法的其他三种湍流模型相对比,利用雷诺数相近、实验数据丰富的6:1长椭球飞艇对不同的湍流模型进行了对比验证。结果显示LES方法预测结果与实验结果吻合较好,优于RANS方法,并能显示更多流动细节,而组合的VMS-LES模型能够更精确地捕获实验研究中观察到的二次涡。利用组合的VMS-LES模型对有翼HAV与多囊瓣HAV进行了气动性能分析,并研究了不同部件对飞艇气动特性的影响。结果表明,由于尾翼表面产生的一次涡与二次涡相互作用,尾翼在增加气动升力的同时也增加了阻力。     

海上编队雷达网近程协同抗ARM方法与仿真

根据反辐射导弹（ARM）攻击时捕捉目标的局限性,提出了海上编队雷达网利用编队内各平台之间的间距优势来协同抗ARM的方法,建立了海上编队雷达网在近程距离内协同抗ARM的能力评估模型和对抗行为模型。其中,能力评估模型可以对海上编队雷达网抗ARM的能力进行评估。舰艇编队在面临ARM威胁时,通过对上述两个模型结合使用,可以对ARM实施有效诱偏。仿真试验结果表明,所建立模型具有一定的可行性和正确性。     

空地导弹对机动导弹武器系统毁伤能力评估

在攻防对抗仿真中,空地导弹对地面机动导弹武器系统的毁伤评估,是一个很复杂的问题。提出了计算机模拟目标真实几何图形,通过对目标的易损性分析和破片式战斗部导弹破坏威力的研究,探讨出一种空地导弹毁伤目标的评估方法。