Comparative evaluation of prior versus progressive articulation of preference in bicriterion optimization

Procedures for solving multiple criteria problems are receiving increasing attention. Two major solution approaches are those involving prior articulation and progressive articulation of preference information. A progressive articulation (interactive) optimization approach, called the Paired Comparison Method (PCM) is compared to the prior articulation approach of a priori utility function measurement in a quality control decision environment from the perspective of the decision maker. The three major issues investigated included: (1) the ease of use of each method, (2) the preferences of solutions obtained, and (3) the insight provided by the methodology into the nature and structure of the problem. The problem setting involved management students who were rquired to determine an acceptance sampling plan using both methods. The PCM provided the most preferred solutions and was considered easier to use and understand. The prior articulation of preference method was found to give more insight into the problem structure. The results suggest that a hybrid approach, combining both prior preference assessment and an interactive procedure exploiting the advantages of each, should be employed to solve multiple criteria problems.     

Note on sequential search

Optimal distribution of search effort problems for certain kinds of moving targets are considered. It is shown that they can be formulated by the use of appropriate Markovian decision models.     

Military expenditure and economic growth: peru 1970–1996

The present study examines the effects of military expenditure on growth in Peru in the period from 1970 to 1996. By using a Deger‐type Simultaneous Equations Model it is possible to break up the net effect into supply‐ and demand‐side influences. The former consist of positive externalities of defence activities on the other sectors of the economy, while the latter can be described as crowding‐out of civilian investment. Estimations find the supply‐side effects to be insignificantly different from zero, while the crowding‐out effect of defence spending is significant and substantial. It is thereby established that defence expenditure has a negative overall effect on economic growth in Peru. Although several caveats – including specification problems of the Deger model, the quality of the data used, a relatively small sample and the presence of autocorrelation in the estimations – must be considered, these results turn out to be quite robust with respect to estimation methods (3SLS, 2SLS, OLS) and slight modifications to the model. They are also consistent with previous empirical findings from other countries and cross sectional studies.     

Flintlock brass fittings from the 19th-century Akko 1 shipwreck,Israel

The Akko 1 shipwreck is the remains of a 26-metre-long Egyptian armed vessel or auxiliary naval brig built at the beginning of the 19th century. Remains of six flintlock muskets were retrieved from the shipwreck, and characterised by various metallurgical methods. The research aimed to study the composition and microstructure of the musket fittings and their manufacturing processes, and if possible, to determine the date and origin of the raw materials. The lead isotope analysis of the fittings suggests that their raw material originated in Great Britain. Based on their typology and composition, the fittings were made in Great Britain of brass alloy and manufactured by casting, probably at the same workshop; and the staple was manufactured by casting and drawing. Considering the zinc content, combined with the manufacturing techniques, the fittings were manufactured between the latter part of the 18th and the early 19th centuries, which might indicate that they were purchased in the course of 19th century weapons trade to be used on board the Egyptian ship.