BP神经网络的飞机机体研制费用估算

提出一种应用人工神经网络预测飞机机体研制费用的方法.该方法利用偏最小二乘法对飞机性能参数进行了主成分提取,用这些主成分作为BP网络的输入变量,建立了一种基于BP神经网络的飞机研制费用的估算模型,应用该模型对典型的飞机机体研制费用进行了预测.预测结果表明,该方法是有效的、可行的.     

Modeling the operation of multireservoir systems using decomposition and stochastic dynamic programming

Stochastic dynamic programming models are attractive for multireservoir control problems because they allow non‐linear features to be incorporated and changes in hydrological conditions to be modeled as Markov processes. However, with the exception of the simplest cases, these models are computationally intractable because of the high dimension of the state and action spaces involved. This paper proposes a new method of determining an operating policy for a multireservoir control problem that uses stochastic dynamic programming, but is practical for systems with many reservoirs. Decomposition is first used to reduce the problem to a number of independent subproblems. Each subproblem is formulated as a low‐dimensional stochastic dynamic program and solved to determine the operating policy for one of the reservoirs in the system. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

On lifetimes in random environments

For a component operating in random environment, whose hazard rate is assumed to be the realization of a suitable increasing stochastic process, conditions are found such that its lifetime is increasing in likelihood ratio (ILR). For the lifetimes of two components of the same kind some comparisons based on partial stochastic orders are presented. Some applications to the case of repairable components are finally provided. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 365–375, 1998     

TCP协议面向字节流问题的探讨和商榷

TCP协议是TCP／IP协议族中的主要协议之一，同时也是比较复杂的一个协议。正确理解TCP协议的特点和基本原理，对全面掌握计算机网络课程基本概念，进而全面掌握因特网的使用有着重要的意义。文章对TCP协议的面向字节流特性进行了深入探讨，指出了谢希仁编著的《计算机网络》（第五版）中对该问题的论述中存在的问题，并提出了自己的改进意见与作者商榷。     

GM(1,1)和SVR的雷达电子部件状态趋势预测模型

为提高雷达电子部件状态趋势预测的精度,根据测试数据特点,提出了基于GM(1,1)与支持向量机回归(SVR)的组合预测模型。采用粒子群优化算法分别对GM(1,1)和SVR模型进行了改进,提高了单一模型的预测精度。在此基础上,结合GM(1,1)模型对趋向性数据的预测优势和SVR模型对数据波动的强适应性,达到了取长补短、相得益彰的效果。实验结果表明该组合模型不但具有更高的预测精度,而且对不同预测对象有更强的适应能力。     

公安消防机构办理失火案和消防责任事故案法理探讨

办理“两案”案件对公安消防机构来说是一个全新的概念,如何正确充分履行法律赋予的侦查职能,已成为各级公安消防机构面临的重要课题。从法理和实践角度对“两案”办理工作进行探讨。     

Static and free vibration analyses of functionally graded porous variable-thickness plates using an edge-based smoothed finite element method

The main purpose of this paper is to present numerical results of static bending and free vibration of functionally graded porous (FGP) variable-thickness plates by using an edge-based smoothed finite element method (ES-FEM) associate with the mixed interpolation of tensorial components technique for the three-node triangular element (MITC3), so-called ES-MITC3. This ES-MITC3 element is performed to eliminate the shear locking problem and to enhance the accuracy of the existing MITC3 element. In the ES-MITC3 element, the stiffness matrices are obtained by using the strain smoothing technique over the smoothing domains formed by two adjacent MITC3 triangular elements sharing an edge. Materials of the plate are FGP with a power-law index (k) and maximum porosity distributions (Ω) in the forms of cosine functions. The influences of some geometric parameters, material properties on static bending, and natural frequency of the FGP variable-thickness plates are examined in detail.     

Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

基于主成分分析法的目标威胁评估

为提高防空作战指挥员对空中来袭目标实施火力分配的量化决策水平,本文提出了基于主成分分析法的目标威胁评估模型及方法。主成分分析法在将原始变量转变为主成分过程中,同时形成了反映主成分的权数以计算综合评价值,这样在指标权重选择上克服了主观因素的影响,客观反映了各指标因素间的现实关系。通过引入实例,对来袭空中目标进行多指标综合评价,根据综合评估值对各批目标威胁进行排序,所得结果合理且符合客观实际,切实为防空作战指挥员科学合理地实施火力分配提供了数据支持和科学依据。     

车辆典型部件结构的有限元模型修正方法

以车身结构中简化的典型结构形式为研究对象,利用有限元软件中的焊点模拟单元,建立典型结构的有限元模型并进行模态分析。在参数灵敏度分析的基础上,结合模态试验测得的数据,利用广义简约梯度算法,对结构的有限元模型进行修正和模型验证,深入探讨了车辆典型部件结构的有限元模型修正方法。通过模型修正,有限元模型的精度得到了明显的提高,为进一步研究车辆结构部件的振动特性奠定了基础。