Dynamic coordination of production planning and sales admission control in the presence of a spot market

We consider the decision‐making problem of dynamically scheduling the production of a single make‐to stock (MTS) product in connection with the product's concurrent sales in a spot market and a long‐term supply channel. The spot market is run by a business to business (B2B) online exchange, whereas the long‐term channel is established by a structured contract. The product's price in the spot market is exogenous, evolves as a continuous time Markov chain, and affects demand, which arrives sequentially as a Markov‐modulated Poisson process (MMPP). The manufacturer is obliged to fulfill demand in the long‐term channel, but is able to rein in sales in the spot market. This is a significant strategic decision for a manufacturer in entering a favorable contract. The profitability of the contract must be evaluated by optimal performance. The current problem, therefore, arises as a prerequisite to exploring contracting strategies. We reveal that the optimal strategy of coordinating production and sales is structured by the spot price dependent on the base stock and sell‐down thresholds. Moreover, we can exploit the structural properties of the optimal strategy to conceive an efficient algorithm. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于混合粒子群优化的多目标决策新方法

多目标优化问题中的一个关键在于合理地评判各有效解的优劣。通过引入灰色系统理论中灰色关联度的概念作为评判准则,结合粒子群优化算法进行有约束多目标规划问题的研究。提出了一种新的不可行解的保留策略,进化过程中以此策略保留适量的不可行解,有利于增强对约束边界附近可能的最优解的搜索,同时,针对粒子群优化算法的容易陷入局部最优的缺点,实现了以粒子群优化为载体的混合算法:即对全局极值邻域进一步混沌搜索寻优。仿真结果表明改进的算法对多目标决策问题是有效的。     

Optimal control of a production‐inventory system with both backorders and lost sales

We consider the optimal control of a production inventory‐system with a single product and two customer classes where items are produced one unit at a time. Upon arrival, customer orders can be fulfilled from existing inventory, if there is any, backordered, or rejected. The two classes are differentiated by their backorder and lost sales costs. At each decision epoch, we must determine whether or not to produce an item and if so, whether to use this item to increase inventory or to reduce backlog. At each decision epoch, we must also determine whether or not to satisfy demand from a particular class (should one arise), backorder it, or reject it. In doing so, we must balance inventory holding costs against the costs of backordering and lost sales. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use it to characterize the structure of the optimal policy. We show that the optimal policy can be described by three state‐dependent thresholds: a production base‐stock level and two order‐admission levels, one for each class. The production base‐stock level determines when production takes place and how to allocate items that are produced. This base‐stock level also determines when orders from the class with the lower shortage costs (Class 2) are backordered and not fulfilled from inventory. The order‐admission levels determine when orders should be rejected. We show that the threshold levels are monotonic (either nonincreasing or nondecreasing) in the backorder level of Class 2. We also characterize analytically the sensitivity of these thresholds to the various cost parameters. Using numerical results, we compare the performance of the optimal policy against several heuristics and show that those that do not allow for the possibility of both backordering and rejecting orders can perform poorly.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

C2系统仿真及评价研究进展

以网络中心战价值链的分析为核心,对指挥控制系统的地位特点及仿真与评价的必要性进行了论证,在此基础上,从"忽略或淡化"、人在回路中、专家系统、基于Agent的方法及基于Swarm的方法5个角度对智能行为建模领域的研究进展进行了分析,同时从"基于能力"及"基于优势"两个视野对指挥控制系统指标体系的构建方法及相应架构进行了剖析.     

校园网Linux环境下入侵诱骗系统的研究与实现

当今的网络环境变得越来越复杂,网络安全管理员的工作不断加重,不经意的 疏忽便有可能遗留下安全的重大隐患,同时网上黑客教程和千余种入侵工具随手可得,因此 网络安全问题防不胜防,网络的防卫必须采用一种纵深的、多样的手段。入侵诱骗技术是网 络安全中的一个新兴的领域,是对现有的网络安全体系的一次重要扩充。结合校园网络平 台,将入侵检测和入侵诱骗有机地结合起来,对入侵诱骗系统进行了研究和具体实现,并详 细阐述了入侵诱骗系统的中心管理端和网络代理端的构成和功能。     

Minimizing the false alarm rate in systems with transient abnormality

We consider a stochastic partially observable system that can switch between a normal state and a transient abnormal state before entering a persistent abnormal state. Only the persistent abnormal state requires alarms. The transient and persistent abnormal states may be similar in appearance, which can result in excess false alarms. We propose a partially observable Markov decision process model to minimize the false alarm rate, subject to a given upper bound on the expected alarm delay time. The cost parameter is treated as the Lagrange multiplier, which can be estimated from the bound of the alarm delay. We show that the optimal policy has a control‐limit structure on the probability of persistent abnormality, and derive closed‐form bounds for the control limit and present an algorithm to specify the Lagrange multiplier. We also study a specialized model where the transient and persistent abnormal states have the same observation distribution, in which case an intuitive “watchful‐waiting” policy is optimal. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 320–334, 2016     

军事攻防中的多属性资源分配对策模型

针对资源受限情形下的两阶段攻防资源分配问题,提出一种基于多属性决策的资源分配对策模型。防守者首先将有限的防护资源分配到不同的目标上,继而进攻者选择一种威胁组合方式对目标实施打击。基于博弈论相关知识,模型的求解结果可以使防守者最小化自身损失,使进攻者最大化进攻收益。同时,针对模型的特点,给出了一些推论和证明。通过一个示例验证了模型的合理性以及相关推论的准确性,能够为攻、防双方规划决策提供辅助支持。     

SiO2气凝胶复合短切莫来石纤维多孔骨架复合材料的制备及性能

将短切莫来石纤维、硅溶胶、B4C粉,经过1260℃烧结制备多孔骨架,以正硅酸乙酯、去离子水和乙醇配制SiO2溶胶,并将多孔骨架与SiO2溶胶浸渍,经过超临界干燥制备SiO2气凝胶复合的莫来石隔热瓦.通过热重和差热分析、X射线能谱分析,表明B4C在700℃～900℃时发生氧化,生成B2O3将短切纤维粘接到一起,莫来石多孔骨架在1500℃以下稳定存在.具有纳米级孔洞结构的SiO2气凝胶填充了多孔骨架的微米级孔洞,隔热瓦的热导率在200℃、500℃、800℃、1000℃分别下降了44.3%、33.8%、34.6%、29.5%.此外,SiO2气凝胶的复合使得抗弯和抗压强度分别提高了50%和40%.     

基于不确定语言多属性决策的目标威胁度排序

针对影响不同类目标威胁度的因素建立了目标威胁度指标体系,并在此基础上,利用不确定语言多属性决策模型对不同类目标威胁度进行排序。该方法不仅充分体现了不同类目标威胁度的影响因素,还充分利用了专家和决策人员的经验,能较好地反映现代战场中目标威胁度的实际情况,利于提高智能化程度;模型适应性较强,计算量小,符合军事系统实时性的特殊要求,使评估结果更具有可信性和实用性。     

基于熵权多目标决策的雷达网战损装备抢修排序方法

分析了熵权的理论基础，给出了一种基于熵权多目标决策的雷达网战损装备抢修排序方法。其中，采用熵权与决策者的主观权重相结合的方法确定综合权重，使权重的确定更加合理。最后通过实例对该方法的可行性和实用性进行了说明。