改进BAS-TIMS算法在空战机动决策中的应用

针对当前空战机动决策精确度低、实时性差的缺点,对天牛须搜索-战术免疫机动系统(Beetle Antennae Search-Tactical Immune Maneuver System, BAS-TIMS)算法进行改进,并应用于空战机动决策中。增加左爬升、右爬升、左俯冲、右俯冲4种机动,对传统的机动策略库进行扩充,设计了11种基本机动策略并给出了相应的控制方法。基于距离、高度、速度、角度和战机性能优势函数,利用非参量法构造战机机动决策综合优势函数。针对天牛须搜索算法在全局搜索和收敛速度上存在的缺陷,引入蒙特卡洛概率迭代的方法对算法进行改进,并和战术免疫机动系统进行融合,将改进的BAS-TIMS算法用于空战机动决策。设计算例进行仿真分析,并将结果和博弈论法、改进共生生物免疫进化算法、传统BAS算法和传统TIMS模型的计算结果进行对比,验证所提算法的有效性。仿真结果表明:改进BAS-TIMS算法在空战机动决策的收敛精度、收敛速度和全局搜索能力上更加具有优势。     

多平台多目标运动建模与仿真

针对现代战场环境下多平台多目标运动的特点,建立了各种机动、非机动目标运动模型,主要有蛇形机动、转弯和导弹比例导引等几种常见运动模型,并运用Matlab软件分别对其进行了计算机仿真。仿真结果表明,建立的数学模型与实际的目标运动基本是吻合的,可以用来描述目标的运动。     

反舰导弹目标捕捉概率的动态模拟算法

针对反舰导弹目标捕捉概率的静态模拟法所存在的问题 ,提出并推导出一种全新的方法——动态模拟算法 ,该法比静态法能更准确地模拟计算反舰导弹目标捕捉概率 ,最后分析了该算法的误差。     

【邀请论文】军队审计应用区块链技术面临的机遇、挑战及推进策略

区块链技术是一种融数据库技术、计算机科学、网络技术、数学及密码学等为一体的现代信息技术，是未来信息化发展的核心技术之一，具有去中心化、公开透明、不易篡改及开源共治等特点。军队审计要坚定不移地贯彻科技强审战略，加强审计信息化建设，将大数据、区块链等现代信息技术与审计业务深度融合，大力推行在线审计、联网审计，促进审计力向保障力和战斗力聚焦。本文在系统阐述区块链技术给军队审计在控制审计风险、提高工作效率、实现审计全覆盖等方面带来机遇的同时，分析了可能面临的应用意识不足、应用经验不足、应用安全存在隐患、应用法规缺乏等挑战，在此基础上提出了区块链技术应用的推进策略，以期更好地推动军队审计信息化的进程。     

Modern liberal wars,illiberal allies,and peace as the failure of policy

ABSTRACT

The post-Cold War period nearly up to the present has been characterised as the age of liberal wars, yet key facets of the liberal guidance of war remain under appreciated. This article seeks to address this wider gap with regard to the particular concern of war termination and the fulfilment or failure of policy. First, it develops characterisations of liberal wars based on the existing literature, identifying three broad types through consideration of context—defensive versus offensive—and of political and strategic agency, particularly regarding the motives for and intents of action. Three types of liberal wars result: defensive liberal wars, offensive liberal wars with humanitarian motive and geopolitical intent, and offensive liberal wars with geopolitical motive and humanitarian intent. The article then presents one exemplary case for each liberal war with an emphasis on how liberal strategy required an illiberal ally and that ally's effect on the subsequent peace.     

The Russian hybrid warfare strategy – neither Russian nor strategy

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its initial actions in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the term hybrid warfare has received much public attention. Many have argued that the Russian actions we saw in Ukraine were part of a completely new strategy while others have suggested that there was nothing new in Russia’s actions. This article takes a critical look at these claims. Through the assessment of the history of the term hybrid warfare and a rigorous analysis of the so-called Gerasimov doctrine, this study finds that the Russian hybrid warfare strategy is rather a western myth than a formal comprehensive Russian strategic concept. Additionally, through the assessment of the Russian use of information operations and the way she has utilised the cyberspace in several recent conflicts, the study finds that against all claims Russia did not make these areas its main battlefield, but rather has been using them in support of its traditional concepts.     

Pairwise model discrimination with applications in lifetime distributions and degradation processes

Reliability data obtained from life tests and degradation tests have been extensively used for purposes such as estimating product reliability and predicting warranty costs. When there is more than one candidate model, an important task is to discriminate between the models. In the literature, the model discrimination was often treated as a hypothesis test and a pairwise model discrimination procedure was carried out. Because the null distribution of the test statistic is unavailable in most cases, the large sample approximation and the bootstrap were frequently used to find the acceptance region of the test. Although these two methods are asymptotically accurate, their performance in terms of size and power is not satisfactory in small sample size. To enhance the small‐sample performance, we propose a new method to approximate the null distribution, which builds on the idea of generalized pivots. Conventionally, the generalized pivots were often used for interval estimation of a certain parameter or function of parameters in presence of nuisance parameters. In this study, we further extend the idea of generalized pivots to find the acceptance region of the model discrimination test. Through extensive simulations, we show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in discriminating between two lifetime distributions or two degradation models over a wide range of sample sizes. Two real examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

多级电磁线圈发射器时序触发策略研究

为优化多级同步感应线圈电磁发射器(SICEML)性能,以提高发射速度和能量转换效率为检验指标,以影响上述指标的触发时序为优化对象,采用遗传算法建立了单级同步感应线圈型电磁发射器触发位置优化数学模型,计算出了最佳触发位置,通过数值和有限元两种仿真系统对优化结果的正确性进行了验证；采用该方法对两级以及10级同步感应线圈型电磁发射器的触发时序进行了优化研究,并进行了仿真验证；为解决了仿真系统误差的问题,提出采用动子线圈在各级的触发位置和速度作为控制因素的双控触发方式,并研究分析了仿真过程中触发开关的随机抖动对出口速度误差的影响。     

径向特征下的改进三角形星图识别算法

三角形星图识别可靠性与可操作性较强,目前仍在广泛使用,但是三角形星图识别算法存在冗余匹配和误识别。通过星点的几何分布构建星点的径向特征量,依据径向特征量对星图进行初始识别,将拍摄星点的识别结果限定在数颗导航星上。在初始识别的基础上,运用三角形星图识别算法再次进行识别,使三角形星图识别更具针对性,同时提高识别的正确性。实验结果表明,采用基于径向特征的改进三角形识别算法,星图识别的准确性和针对性都得到了提高。     

以色列反恐情报战略探讨

以色列是世界上第一个遭受国际恐怖主义威胁的国家。但通过明确分工和行之有效的反恐措施,以色列已经能够对付不断升级的恐怖主义威胁。自“9·11”事件以来,全球许多国家都开始向以色列求教国土安全方面的知识和专业技术。