基于比例危险模型的产品竞争失效分析

突发型失效与退化型失效共存的竞争失效问题在实践中大量存在,一般情况下突发失效是受退化量大小影响的。文中利用比例危险模型分析了突发失效与退化量的关系,给出了竞争失效的一般模型及模型的参数估计方法,最后利用所给模型对强激光装置所用的金属化膜脉冲电容器进行了可靠性分析。     

激光末制导炮弹过重力补偿比例导引律的分析

以相对运动方程组为基础,分析了导引律的运动学实质和过重力补偿的信号流图,进而分别对比例导引和基于过重力补偿为常值的过重力补偿比例导引下的弹道进行了对比仿真计算。结果表明,过重力补偿比例导引适用于攻击非机动和机动性不大的目标,落角增大,命中点附近视线偏转和控制过载变大,能够实现对目标的大落角攻顶效应。     

基于比例危险模型的船用柴油机视情维修决策

针对船用柴油机视情维修决策问题,采用威布尔比例危险模型描述了系统状态与故障率之间的关系,利用核主成分分析对协变量进行了去相关和约简处理,以平均费用最小为决策目标,建立了视情维修的最优维修策略模型,并根据设备当前状态信息来判断是否需要进行维修。实例分析表明：该方法有效融合了历史故障信息和运行状态信息,提高了柴油机可用度,降低了维修保障费用。     

Combined proportional navigation law for interception of high-speed targets

A new proportional navigation (PN) guidance law, called combined proportional navigation (CPN), is proposed. The guidance law is designed to intercept high-speed targets, which is a common case for ballistic targets. The range of target-to-interceptor speed ratio during target interception is derived when guidance laws are applied in high-speed targets interception, and the effectiveness of negative navigation ratio in the PN-based guidance law is proven analytically in some lemmas. Based on the lemmas, the lateral acceleration command of CPN is defined, and the solution to the appearance of singularity in time-varying navigation ratio is given. The simulation results show that CPN can determine head-on engagement (as PN) or tail-chase engagement (as RPN) through initial path angle compared with PN and retro proportional navigation (RPN), and can adjust the value of navigation ratio for head-on engagement or tail-chase engagement. Therefore, the capture region of CPN is larger than that of other guidance laws using PN-based methods.     

被动式寻的导弹的目标自适应制导算法

主要解决以下两个问题 :一是在仅有角度信息的被动制导中如何获得距离信息 ;二是对攻击点的选择问题作了初步的探索 ,在获得距离信息的基础上 ,利用交战双方几何关系实现目标自适应制导算法 ,解决在红外被动制导中跟踪点和攻击点不同的问题。文末给出实验仿真结果及分析     

Allocation with demand competition: Uniform,proportional, and lexicographic mechanisms

We examine capacity allocation mechanisms in a supply chain comprising a monopolistic supplier and two competing retailers with asymmetric market powers. The supplier allocates limited capacity to retailers according to uniform, proportional, or lexicographic mechanism. We study the impact of these allocation mechanisms on supplier pricing decisions and retailer ordering behavior. With individual order size no greater than supplier capacity, we show that all three mechanisms guarantee equilibrium ordering. We provide precise structures of retailer ordering decisions in Nash and dominant equilibria. Further, we compare the mechanisms from the perspective of the supplier, the retailers, and the supply chain. We show that regardless of whether retailer market powers are symmetric, lexicographic allocation with any priority sequence of retailers is better than the other two mechanisms for the supplier. Further, under lexicographic allocation, the supplier gains more profit by granting higher priority to the retailer with greater market power. We also extend our study to the case with multiple retailers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 85–107, 2017     

临近空间防空导弹制导律

基于临近空间防空导弹,在拦截高空高速大机动目标的条件下,对导弹的制导律进行了研究。给出了微分对策制导律的理论知识及其具体算法,通过Simulink工具进行模块化建模,并将制导律模型引入导弹六自由度模型中进行仿真,对比分析导弹飞行轨迹和需用过载,表明微分对策制导律要比常用的比例导引制导律更优。     

基于状态的装备可靠度模型及其应用

为应用基于状态的装备可靠度模型，实现对装备的精确维修，采用了比例风险模型（Proportional Hazards Model，PHM）将装备的年龄信息及检测所得状态信息融入系统的风险函数中。考虑到样本包含截尾数据的情形，应用极大似然估计方法对模型中的参数进行了估计以及相应的模型检验。通过对该方法在一个实际案例中应用的详细分析，验证了方法的可行性。     

末制导段比例导引法的改进

为了消除比例导引法末制导段的各种干扰因素,抑制法向过载的跳动,基于广义卡尔曼滤波多步估计理论,提出了将拦截导弹直接向瞬时遭遇点导引的末制导导引方法,并进行了计算机仿真.仿真结果表明,该方法可以明显消除或减小末制导段比例导引律的各种干扰因素,抑制法向过载的跳动,改善末制导的弹道特性,减小脱靶量,缩短拦截时间.     

对剩余飞行时间估计误差不敏感的末制导改进方法

首先对传统的比例导引控制系统进行了分析,分析结果表明,传统的比例导引方法对导弹剩余飞行时间的估计依赖性强,剩余飞行时间估计误差将大大降低制导性能,甚至造成导弹脱靶.为了解决这一问题,提出了一种降低敏感度制导律,建立了该改进制导律的数学模型并进行了仿真,仿真结果表明,该制导律对剩余飞行时间误差敏感度低,并能够提高制导性能...