Probabilistic solution and bounds for serial inventory systems with discounted and average costs

We consider the infinite horizon serial inventory system with both average cost and discounted cost criteria. The optimal echelon base‐stock levels are obtained in terms of only probability distributions of leadtime demands. This analysis yields a novel approach for developing bounds and heuristics for optimal inventory control polices. In addition to deriving the known bounds in literature, we develop several new upper bounds for both average cost and discounted cost models. Numerical studies show that the bounds and heuristic are very close to optimal.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Untruthful probabilistic demand forecasts in vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing contracts: Coordinating the chain

Vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing arrangements are common in the newspaper and other industries. Under such arrangements, the supplier decides on the level of inventory while the retailer effectively operates under consignment, sharing the sales revenue with his supplier. We consider the case where the supplier is unable to predict demand, and must base her decisions on the retailer‐supplied probabilistic forecast for demand. We show that the retailer's best choice of a distribution to report to his supplier will not be the true demand distribution, but instead will be a degenerate distribution that surprisingly induces the supplier to provide the system‐optimal inventory quantity. (To maintain credibility, the retailer's reports of daily sales must then be consistent with his supplied forecast.) This result is robust under nonlinear production costs and nonlinear revenue‐sharing. However, if the retailer does not know the supplier's production cost, the forecast “improves” and could even be truthful. That, however, causes the supplier's order quantity to be suboptimal for the overall system. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Production to order and off‐line inspection when the production process is partially observable

This study combines inspection and lot‐sizing decisions. The issue is whether to INSPECT another unit or PRODUCE a new lot. A unit produced is either conforming or defective. Demand need to be satisfied in full, by conforming units only. The production process may switch from a “good” state to a “bad” state, at constant rate. The proportion of conforming units in the good state is higher than in the bad state. The true state is unobservable and can only be inferred from the quality of units inspected. We thus update, after each inspection, the probability that the unit, next candidate for inspection, was produced while the production process was in the good state. That “good‐state‐probability” is the basis for our decision to INSPECT or PRODUCE. We prove that the optimal policy has a simple form: INSPECT only if the good‐state‐probability exceeds a control limit. We provide a methodology to calculate the optimal lot size and the expected costs associated with INSPECT and PRODUCE. Surprisingly, we find that the control limit, as a function of the demand (and other problem parameters) is not necessarily monotone. Also, counter to intuition, it is possible that the optimal action is PRODUCE, after revealing a conforming unit. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Kurtosis correction method for X̄ and R control charts for long‐tailed symmetrical distributions

This paper proposes a kurtosis correction (KC) method for constructing the X? and R control charts for symmetrical long‐tailed (leptokurtic) distributions. The control charts are similar to the Shewhart control charts and are very easy to use. The control limits are derived based on the degree of kurtosis estimated from the actual (subgroup) data. It is assumed that the underlying quality characteristic is symmetrically distributed and no other distributional and/or parameter assumptions are made. The control chart constants are tabulated and the performance of these charts is compared with that of the Shewhart control charts. For the case of the logistic distribution, the exact control limits are derived and are compared with the KC method and the Shewhart method. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

基于TSMD-SVM-HMM的机内测试智能降虚警方法

机内测试虚警问题是影响系统完好性和使用保障费用的重要因素。针对环境因素导致的虚警问题,设计了时间环境应力测量装置,应用支持向量机的小样本学习优点,建立虚警与环境因素的关联关系,应用隐马尔可夫模型的连续动态信号处理能力,描述系统长期工作历程中虚警的发生规律,提出了基于时间环境应力测量装置-支持向量机-隐马尔可夫模型的机内测试智能降虚警方法。最后,在某型直升机航向姿态系统上进行了应用与验证,试验结果表明:该方法有效识别出了机内测试的虚警。     

卫星天线指向复合控制全物理仿真与试验分析

卫星天线指向复合控制全物理仿真系统是验证多体卫星天线指向复合控制方案的关键设备.首先从力学的角度研究了该系统试验时影响天线指向与定点控制精度的几个不理想因素,并对系统的误差进行了分析和研究,得出了其误差模型,在此基础上设计了自适应控制律并对其进行了稳定性证明.最后对该系统进行了仿真,给出了仿真结果.结果表明该系统可以满足高精度天线指向复合控制要求.为进一步提高卫星天线指向复合控制全物理仿真精度奠定了基础.     

再论加强公安执法人员的法治观念

法制现代化是中国当前重大的社会主题之一,它是一个历史的、发展的过程。公安法治建设必然对国家法制现代化进程产生重大的影响。公安机关的性质、地位和作用决定了公安执法人员必须具有正确的执法思想。而法律至上观念、权利本位观念、分权制衡观念、正当程序观念对公安执法人员正确执法思想的形成有着直接的影响。     

部队政府采购制度规范化问题探讨

当前,为适应我国的经济发展形势和军队现代化改革的步伐,在部队中推行政府采购制度是提高后勤工作管理水平的必然选择。针对军队政府采购制度的规范化建设问题,主要从完善采购法制建设、改革财务管理体制、加强人才培养和信息化建设方面进行了初步探讨。     

解析美国大学TESL硕士培养的主要课程与设置理据——以曼卡托明尼苏达州立大学为例

把英语作为第二语言的教学是20世纪60年代在美国兴起并逐步走向独立的科目,它在综合相关专业的同时正在朝专业化方向发展。近年来其硕士层面的教育为全球培养了大量合格的中小学英语教师,取得了较好的成绩。本文以曼卡托明尼苏达州立大学英语系为例,并结合笔者在该系攻读TESL硕士学位时的经历,解析其主要课程及设置理据。     

和谐社会背景下发展西部民族教育的对策

本文根据西部民族地区教育的特殊性和共性,从创建和谐社会的基本理念出发,提出发展西部民族教育的对策:促进民族教育与全国教育发展相协调;增强少数民族的自信心,促进民族地区的社会稳定;确立教育公平和补偿性投入的理念,实现民族教育超前发展;重视民族基础教育和高层次骨干人才培养;加强师资队伍的建设;加强发达地区对西部贫困地区的教育对口支援。