Cognitivism,prospect theory,and foreign policy change: a comparative analysis of the politics of counterinsurgency in Malaya and Afghanistan

This article investigates the cognitive limitations on policy change in counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts by examining why American decision-makers failed to revise their government strategy substantially while fighting the insurgency in Afghanistan in 2003–2014 and why their British counterparts were more successful in adjusting their policies in the Malayan insurgency in 1948–1954. Unlike most of the COIN literature that concentrates on military strategy and tactics, the analysis of government policy-making in Malaya holds some important political lessons for American leaders today despite differences between the insurgencies in Afghanistan and British Malaya. As a response to the criticism of COIN studies in general that they lack theoretical guidance, this article utilizes an integrated cognitivist-prospect theory framework. It is argued that some of the COIN literature mistakenly suggests that a more difficult strategic situation was primarily responsible for American failure in Afghanistan. Instead, American decision-makers faced a more difficult task cognitively than their British counterparts, as policy change in Afghanistan would have required greater ideational change. American principals were much more attached to their beliefs emotionally, had no alternative problem representation, and had to shift between frames in order to engineer a response that was more in line with events on the ground in Afghanistan. Regarding prospect theory, findings indicate that gains frames appear to be unhelpful in monitoring progress until catastrophic failure endangers the reference point, and that decision-makers often have more than one reference point to attune their policies to, which often results in suboptimal choices with regard to at least one reference point.     

A standardized scan statistic for detecting spatial clusters with estimated parameters

The scan statistic based on likelihood ratios (LRs) have been widely discussed for detecting spatial clusters. When developing the scan statistic, it uses the maximum likelihood estimates of the incidence rates inside and outside candidate clusters to substitute the true values in the LR statistic. However, the parameter estimation has a significant impact on the sensitivity of the scan statistic, which favors the detection of clusters in areas with large population sizes. By presenting the effects of parameter estimation on Kulldorff's scan statistic, we suggest a standardized scan statistic for spatial cluster detection. Compared to the traditional scan statistic, the standardized scan statistic can account for the varying mean and variance of the LR statistic due to inhomogeneous background population sizes. Extensive simulations have been performed to compare the power of the two cluster detection methods with known or/and estimated parameters. The simulation results show that the standardization can help alleviate the effects of parameter estimation and improve the detection of localized clusters. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

军民融合制度变迁分析

军民融合制度变迁属于强制性的制度变迁,必须由国家来主导。从国家的角度对军民融合制度变迁进行成本收益分析,认为政府是推动制度变迁的最主要力量;通过构建国家效用函数,对国家推行军民融合制度变迁动力产生过程进行探析,认为国家效用的降低是推行制度变迁的诱因。     

排列熵算法的应用与发展

重点阐述了排列熵算法的基本原理,总结归纳了该算法在医学、生物和机械等领域的国内外研究和应用现状,最后展望了排列熵算法的未来发展趋势。研究表明：排列熵算法能够有效放大时间序列的微弱变化,且计算简单、实时性高,已在信号突变检测方面显示出良好的应用前景。     

C^I体系下图像目标毁伤效果评估模型的研究

目标毁伤评估系统是C^4I的重要组成部分,图像变化检测是目标毁伤效果评估系统中的一种重要手段。分析了图像处理技术的必要性,据此设计了基于图像变化检测的目标毁伤评估系统模型,并对其关键技术及评估准则进行了深入分析。结果表明,基于图像变化检测的目标毁伤估计可以提高评估效率,提高评估精度和优化评估效果。     

相位差变化率的快速高精度测量及精度分析

由于阵元间相位差变化率这一观测量与通道不一致性关系不大,信号到达两阵元间的相位差变化率常用于无源定位测量中。提出了一种新的快速高精度的相位差变化率测量方法,利用分时间片思想,首先通过对无模糊相位差进行一次相位平移,得到各个时间片含模糊的相位差值;然后对得到的各个时间片的含模糊相位差进行一次相位平移,得到各时间片间相对无模糊的相位差;最后对相对无模糊相位差采用最小二乘算法求得相位差变化率。理论分析和仿真实验表明,本算法可以很好地解决测量中由于相位模糊造成的相位差抖动问题,能够在短时间内得到高精度相位差变化率信息,可以满足定位要求。     

Rose-tinted lenses: how American functionalist strategy inhibits our appreciation of complex conflicts

Strategists and military professionals have previously questioned many of the methodological (theoretical underpinnings, the principles, and rules applied by the discipline) decisions associated with American military strategy, but the direction this essay takes is above and beyond the common methodological rivalries in how we pursue strategic desired future states. To get beyond methodological disputes entirely, we must consider thinking about our thinking as an organization on American strategy. Thus, this article hovers between philosophies, organizational theory, as well as our usually unquestioned belief in something called “strategy”. Questioning things about our basic understanding of the world tends to trigger strong organizational defense mechanisms, for good reason. Critical reflection at deep levels puts our worldview, and our role within it at stake. Nonetheless, as strategic disappointment emerges over multiple complex conflict developments, even the most cherished and guarded choices on how the world ought to work are ripe for critical inquiry. This essay examines the limited single strategic paradigm of the US defense industry and how the latest American National Security Strategy and Army Future Operating Concept (Win in a Complex World through 2030) presents a flawed strategic position. This essay presents valid alternative strategies that operate within different paradigmatic constructs.     

A drive to regime change through nonviolent economic warfare: The post-Mugabe era, 2017–2019

ABSTRACT

This article examines efforts made by the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance to bring about regime change through nonviolent economic warfare including its subsequent failure. The 30 July 2018 harmonised elections in Zimbabwe led to a victory by Emmerson Mnangagwa but it was disputed by Nelson Chamisa. Since August 2018, the political opposition led by Chamisa sought to make the country ungovernable by waging a nonviolent economic war nicknamed Kuzvidira jecha (pouring sand) against the Mnangagwa administration. This was punctuated by price hikes, fluctuation of the local currency, artificial food stuff price hikes and fuel shortages which caused serious challenges for most Zimbabweans. This was primarily intended to bring about regime change via public unrest against the Mnangagwa regime. On the contrary, the anticipated public uproar failed to foster regime change in Zimbabwe despite widespread adverse socio-economic effects. This led to the nonviolent participants resorting to violent tactics instead of adhering to nonviolence. Consequently, it was the failure to adhere to nonviolent principles by opposition advocates which forced the Mnangagwa regime to deploy its own instruments of violence in an effort to protect lives and property.     

着眼院校长远发展,努力开创我院体育工作新局面

通过对我院体育现状的分析研究,结合国内及军内外大学体育发展的趋势,提出了加强装甲兵工程学院体育工作改革的4点建议。     

奎屯城市经济活动的变化发展分析

本文运用城市经济基础理论,采用定量方法,对奎屯城市经济基础的变化发展进行了深入细致的分析并对奎屯城市经济发展方向及目标提出了较为科学客观的建议.