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Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process 下载免费PDF全文
Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014 相似文献
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为了应对卫星导航系统内部复杂关系等体系特征为其安全分析带来的挑战、全面识别和分析卫星导航系统面临的体系安全威胁、提高系统的安全性和服务能力,基于功能依赖网络分析理论提出了从体系角度研究卫星导航系统安全性的建模方法,重点对导航系统内组件系统之间交互关系导致的危险传播、任意失效组合进行了后果分析和原因调查。仿真结果表明该方法能清晰地描述危险传播和失效组合的过程以及进行正逆向的推理分析,也证明了该方法在卫星导航系统安全分析问题上的潜力和适用性。 相似文献
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针对一个新的三维自治混沌系统,研究了该系统的控制与同步现象。根据李雅普诺夫稳定性理论,运用自适应控制方法对该系统进行了混沌控制,设计了实现其同步的一个非线性控制器,运用Matlab数值仿真验证了设计的有效性。 相似文献
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针对防空导弹体系建模的复杂性,探讨研究防空导弹体系的Agent建模方法.提出了基于G/A矩阵的Agent建模方法步骤,通过分析角色之间的关系描述了Agent组织结构,给出了角色类和Agent类的统一定义,并建立了Agent结构框架和类实现模型,最后构建了基于FIPA规范的MAS综合集成框架.该方法的提出,为防空导弹体系的进一步建模提供了方法依据. 相似文献
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Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016 相似文献
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