基于Multi-Agent的信息共享行为建模研究

针对信息共享行为的优化需求,构建了基于Multi-Agent的信息共享行为模型,该模型由Agent特性、Agent信念、Agent连通性和Agent行为4个模块组成。在Agent信念模块,提出了关于信念的信任值量化更新方法,将其作为信息共享行为交互的优先级排序的依据。规范了Agent发送信息、接收信息和处理信息的实验流程。通过仿真实验,得出了较为理想的信息共享行为组织模式,实现了信任阈值下的信息过滤,通过实验结果分析验证了信息共享行为模型的有效性。     

A study on the surface overpressure distribution and formation of a double curvature liner under a two-point initiation

The formation mechanism of an EFP(explosively formed projectile) using a double curvature liner under the overpressure effect generated by a regular oblique reflection was investigated in this paper.Based on the detonation wave propagation theory,the change of the incident angle of the detonation wave collision at different positions and the distribution area of the overpressure on the surface of the liner were calculated.Three-dimensional numerical simulations of the formation process of the EFP with tail as well as the ability to penetrate 45# steel were performed using LS-DYNA software,and the EFP ve-locity,the penetration ability,and the forming were assessed via experiments and x-ray photographs.The experimental results coincides with those of the simulations.Results indicate that the collision of the detonation wave was controlled to be a regular oblique reflection acting on the liner by setting the di-mensions of the unit charge and maintaining the pressure at the collision point region at more than 2.4 times the CJ detonation when the incident angle approached the critical angle.The distance from the liner midline to the boundary of the area within which the pressure ratio of the regular oblique reflection pressure to the CJ detonation pressure was greater than 2.5,2,and 1.5was approximately 0.66 mm,1.32 mm,and 3.3 mm,respectively.It is noted that pressure gradient caused the liner to turn inside out in the middle to form the head of the EFP and close the two tails of the EFP at approximately 120μs.The penetration depth of the EFP into a 45# steel target exceeded 30 mm,and there was radial expansion between the head and tail of the EFE increasing the penetration resistance of the EFP.Therefore,the structural size of the unit charge and the liner can be further optimized to reduce resistance to increase the penetration ability of the EFP.     

基于随机拟合的悬浮式深弹弹阵特征建模

通过分析悬浮式深弹发射后在空中的弹道特性,建立了深弹弹着点坐标的计算模型。采取蒙特卡洛方法,分别对舰艇六自由度状态下,单管和六联装火箭深弹的弹着点坐标进行了仿真计算,对弹着点的分布规律进行了研究,并得出弹着点的联合密度函数。结果表明,在发射参数存在正态扰动下,弹着点散布区域均呈椭圆形分布,弹着点坐标均仍服从正态分布。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

Strategic Ambiguity: Nuclear Sharing and the Secret Strategy for Drafting Articles I and II of the Nonproliferation Treaty

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, the United States has engaged in nuclear sharing with its NATO allies. Today, 150-200 tactical nuclear weapons remain on European soil. However, the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) prohibits the transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear weapon states. The potential discrepancy between text and practice raises the question of how the NPT's negotiators dealt with NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements while drafting the treaty that would eventually become the bedrock of the international nonproliferation regime. Using a multitiered analysis of secret negotiations within the White House National Security Council, NATO, and US-Soviet bilateral meetings, this article finds that NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements strengthened the NPT in the short term by lowering West German incentives to build the bomb. However, this article also finds that decision makers and negotiators in the Lyndon B. Johnson administration had a coordinated strategy of deliberately inserting ambiguous language into drafts of Articles I and II of the Treaty to protect and preserve NATO's pre-existing nuclear-sharing arrangements in Europe. This diplomatic approach by the Johnson administration offers lessons for challenges concerning NATO and relations with Russia today.     

Coordination mechanisms for a three‐stage reverse supply chain to increase profitable returns

In this article, we consider a generic electronic product that can be remanufactured or recycled at the end of its life cycle to generate new profit. We first describe the product return process and then present a customer segmentation model to capture consumers' different behaviors with respect to product return so that the retailer can work more effectively to increase the return volume. In regard to the collaboration between the retailer and the manufacturer, we explore a revenue‐sharing coordination mechanism for achieving a win‐win outcome. The optimality and sensitivity of the critical parameters in four strategies are obtained and examined both theoretically and numerically, which generate insights on how to manage an efficient consumer‐retailer‐manufacturer reverse supply chain, as well as on the feasibility of simplifying such a three‐stage chain structure. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

子母深弹反鱼雷攻击效能及仿真

火箭深弹是水面舰艇拦截鱼雷的常用武器,为提高火箭深弹拦截鱼雷的概率,提出了子母深弹的概念,将地面火炮中常用的子母弹技术应用于深弹反鱼雷攻击中,通过分析子母弹的散布特性,来比较子母深弹和火箭深弹毁伤鱼雷的效能,并通过Monte-Carlo法仿真了这一过程,分析了影响子母深弹的毁伤概率的因素。     

25nm鱼鳍型场效应晶体管中单粒子瞬态的工艺参数相关性

基于TCAD(Technology Computer-Aided Design)3-D模拟,研究了25 nm鱼鳍型场效应晶体管(Fin Field Effect Transistor,FinFET)中单粒子瞬态效应的工艺参数相关性。研究表明一些重要工艺参数的起伏会对电荷收集产生显著影响,从而影响到电路中传播的SET(Single Event Transient)脉冲宽度。对于最佳工艺拐角,离子轰击后收集的电荷量可以降低约38%,而在最坏工艺拐角下,收集的电荷量则会增加79%。这些结论对FinFET工艺下的SET减缓及抗辐射加固设计提供了一种新的思路。     

多孔材料药型罩聚能射流的形成条件

依据Herrmann状态方程和斜冲击波关系估算了多孔材料药型罩压垮之前的冲击温升,求解了经过冲击压缩卸载后材料的声速。给出了多孔材料药型罩聚能射流的形成条件。初始冲击温升会使材料的声速和强度降低,从而使多孔材料聚能射流形成射流的高速和低速条件降低。     

传感器网络在网络中心战中的应用

介绍了传感器网络对比于分立式传感器的优势所在,指出传感器网络通过多点数据融合及任务指派的方法加强传感器网络在监视和跟踪空中目标、地面活动目标、以及特殊目标(如联合战区防空反导、目标战损估计)中的应用。提出了传感器网络应该解决的几个具体问题;包括节点选择与优化部署方面的组建原则、任务指派方面的注意事项、资源管理的目标要求、异构资源信息共享的四种解决方法、以及网络安全(关于网络本身的健壮性以及数据的安全性)等方面的问题和解决方法。