火灾安全评价方法研究

火灾安全评价是利用系统工程的方法对拟建或已有工程、系统可能存在的危险性及可能产生的后果进行综合评价和预测,并根据可能导致的火灾事故风险的大小,提出相应的安全对策措施,以达到工程、系统安全的过程。主要论述了火灾安全评价的目的、火灾安全评价的意义、火灾安全评价的一般程序、火灾安全评价方法选择、火灾安全评价方法的比较及火灾安全评价方法在消防中应用。     

基于模糊综合评判的地空导弹阵地选择

在现代防空中,由于精确制导技术在空袭兵器当中的运用,使防空作战中兵力机动显得格外重要.为实现机动作战,阵地选择就成为机动作战中的重要环节.运用模糊数学原理和方法,结合地空导弹部队阵地选择的特点,给出了阵地选择评价因素指标体系,建立了阵地选择方案的二级模糊综合评判模型,并采用层次分析法(AHP)对阵地选择评价因素的权重进行了确定,最终得出阵地选择合理的评价结果.     

基于DS/AHP的导弹发射阵地选择方法

战术导弹发射阵地选择是导弹作战兵力运筹的重要组成部分,其本质是一多准则多属性决策问题。传统的层次分析法无法明确描述这类问题中所蕴涵的不确定性,通过DS证据理论的引入,研究了战术导弹发射阵地选择的DS/AHP方法,应用实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于GQM的装备软件可靠性参数选取方法

针对装备软件无可靠性定量要求以及开发过程缺少监管的问题,提出基于GQM(Goal-Question-Metric)的装备软件可靠性参数选取方法。首先构建了软件可靠性通用参数集和装备软件可靠性特有参数集,然后按照GQM方法的框架,从不同角度出发,制定装备软件可靠性度量目标,列出为实现目标需要回答的一系列问题,进而以回答问题的方式,确定不同情况下适用的软件可靠性参数,最终建立装备软件可靠性参数体系。     

基于群决策协同网络信息的掩护机编队选择

针对任务机群中掩护机编队的选择,用群决策协同网络信息模型进行了掩护机编队的选择。首先,给出了协同网络、模糊数和语言变量的相关概念;其次,分析了掩护机编队选择的指标体系框架和协同网络信息框架;然后,构建了群决策协同网络信息的数学模型,在此基础上,给出了方案选择的步骤;最后,运用该模型对掩护机编队的选择进行求解。结果表明：该模型能够综合群体专家的知识,解决掩护机编队选择中的定性判断问题。该模型可用于个体指标和协同指标均为定性指标时的方案优选问题。     

地球静止轨道高能电子通量在线预测模型研究

利用粒子群优化算法和最小二乘支持向量机，建立了地球静止轨道高能电子通量(1.8-3.5MeV)在线预测模型。针对粒子群优化算法，提出了一种新的粒子群多样性测度计算方法，有效改善了其早熟收敛现象；基于改进的粒子群优化算法优化最小二乘支持向量机的正则化参数和核参数；利用滑动时间窗口策略更新模型数据，设计变量选择触发机制以及模型的再学习机制实现模型的在线预测功能。[根据题目的调整，对摘要做了相应改动]通过对2000年电子通量监测数据和相关太阳风、地磁参数等实际数据进行提前1-3天的预测实验，表明了所建在线预测模型具有较高的预测性能，有一定的实用价值。     

Information theory for ranking and selection

We study the classical ranking and selection problem, where the ultimate goal is to find the unknown best alternative in terms of the probability of correct selection or expected opportunity cost. However, this paper adopts an alternative sampling approach to achieve this goal, where sampling decisions are made with the objective of maximizing information about the unknown best alternative, or equivalently, minimizing its Shannon entropy. This adaptive learning is formulated via a Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming problem, by which several properties of the learning problem are presented, including the monotonicity of the optimal value function in an information-seeking setting. Since the state space of the stochastic dynamic program is unbounded in the Gaussian setting, a one-step look-ahead approach is used to develop a policy. The proposed policy seeks to maximize the one-step information gain about the unknown best alternative, and therefore, it is called information gradient (IG). It is also proved that the IG policy is consistent, that is, as the sampling budget grows to infinity, the IG policy finds the true best alternative almost surely. Later, a computationally efficient estimate of the proposed policy, called approximated information gradient (AIG), is introduced and in the numerical experiments its performance is tested against recent benchmarks alongside several sensitivity analyses. Results show that AIG performs competitively against other algorithms from the literature.     

基于模糊聚类方法的机场目标选择模型

在现代战争中,机场作为一个战略级别的目标,要发挥其整体的作用需要目标群中的每个子目标都能最大限度地相互配合,使其本身的价值充分地体现出来.针对当前在目标选择上片面的问题,根据模糊聚类方法的基本原理,结合机场本身的特征进行改进,构建了机场目标选择模型,通过计算,证明可以克服以往目标打击方案界定的不明确性,避免了选择目标的单一化.     

Nonlinear pricing with consumer satiation

In various scenarios, consumers may become satiated with products, and the degree of satiation is directly associated with their prior experiences. Confronted with consumer satiation, the seller is unable to either identify consumers who have a higher likelihood of being satiated ex ante or distinguish satiated from non‐satiated consumers ex post. Therefore, the seller should address dynamic selling, valuation uncertainty, and quantity decisions, all of which are important operational issues. We consider a two‐period problem in which consumer types are influenced by their prior consumption experiences. Faced with these consumers, the seller intends to optimize quantities and adjust the prices of the products in each period to maximize revenue. We find that the seller may reduce ex ante production quantity as some consumers become satiated. Moreover, the ex ante quantity is first decreasing and then increasing with regard to the satiation rate. Furthermore, two‐period information asymmetries may provide a rationale for upward distortion in quantity when consumer preferences are highly sensitive to first‐period consumption. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 386–400, 2016     

也谈期刊编辑选题策划

期刊编辑选题策划是编辑在信息传播过程中所从事的决策与设计性工作 ,它具有显著的特征 ,应遵循内在的原则。