基于群决策协同网络信息的掩护机编队选择

针对任务机群中掩护机编队的选择,用群决策协同网络信息模型进行了掩护机编队的选择。首先,给出了协同网络、模糊数和语言变量的相关概念;其次,分析了掩护机编队选择的指标体系框架和协同网络信息框架;然后,构建了群决策协同网络信息的数学模型,在此基础上,给出了方案选择的步骤;最后,运用该模型对掩护机编队的选择进行求解。结果表明：该模型能够综合群体专家的知识,解决掩护机编队选择中的定性判断问题。该模型可用于个体指标和协同指标均为定性指标时的方案优选问题。     

双高速摄像机交汇的高旋弹丸位姿估计算法及误差分析

为了测量高旋弹丸在炮口处的各种信息,基于双高速摄像机交汇的测量方法,提出了一种新的弹丸位姿估计方法.对总攻角函数进行了误差建模与分析,结果表明两台高速摄像机的光轴应相互垂直,且应选择光轴远离攻角平面的高速摄像机所对应的测量函数计算总攻角,此时测量误差最小.以靶场实验的方式对攻角函数的误差分析结论和位姿估计算法进行验证....     

基于高斯和-容积Kalman滤波的高轨双星辐射源跟踪

高轨双星系统可通过测量辐射源信号的到达时差、频差和到达高轨卫星的多普勒频移,跟踪沿地球表面巡航且载频固定、已知的运动辐射源。针对辐射源运动方程和观测方程的强非线性,提出了基于高斯和框架与5阶容积Kalman滤波的运动辐射源跟踪算法GS-5CKF。算法将起始时刻的时差观测量所确定的处于地球表面的时差线按辐射源经度等间隔划分,初始化多个并行的5阶容积Kalman滤波器,线性组合各滤波器每个时刻的输出以获得辐射源运动状态的估计。针对5阶容积Kalman滤波器,提出了相应的非线性测度并引入滤波器分裂与合并,以提高跟踪精度并保持GS-5CKF算法计算复杂度基本不变。仿真表明,相对仅使用单个5阶容积Kalman滤波器和基于高斯和框架但使用3阶容积Kalman滤波器的GS-3CKF等算法,提出的跟踪算法具有更高的估计精度。     

War for profit: English corsairs,institutions and decentralised strategy

In this study, we propose that in states with relatively weak central authorities, decision-makers had to develop market-oriented organisation solutions to successfully face a grave external threat, and these solutions proved to be efficient. Using an interdisciplinary approach that combines institutional theory, history and strategy, we analyse a case study, the use of corsairs (privateers) by England in the late sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries. We have found that the development of partnership companies went hand in hand for commercial and military purposes. English privateers proved to be economically efficient and superior to the centrally planned war operations of the Spanish empire.     

地球静止轨道高能电子通量在线预测模型研究

利用粒子群优化算法和最小二乘支持向量机，建立了地球静止轨道高能电子通量(1.8-3.5MeV)在线预测模型。针对粒子群优化算法，提出了一种新的粒子群多样性测度计算方法，有效改善了其早熟收敛现象；基于改进的粒子群优化算法优化最小二乘支持向量机的正则化参数和核参数；利用滑动时间窗口策略更新模型数据，设计变量选择触发机制以及模型的再学习机制实现模型的在线预测功能。[根据题目的调整，对摘要做了相应改动]通过对2000年电子通量监测数据和相关太阳风、地磁参数等实际数据进行提前1-3天的预测实验，表明了所建在线预测模型具有较高的预测性能，有一定的实用价值。     

Coping with the refugee and migrant crisis in Slovenia: the role of the military

Approximately 470,000 refugees and migrants passed through Slovenian territory between September 2015 and March 2016, creating a crisis that required a great deal of organisational and field work on the part of many governmental and non-governmental institutions. In the social sciences, a discourse on “security versus humanitarian approach” on the refugees and migrant issue appeared; however, the article goes over such a discourse and deals with roles and problems of different institutions – mostly the military – that responded to the crisis. Namely, coping with the crisis was characterised by significant institutional adjustments, difficult co-ordination, and intense public debate. The Slovenian Armed Forces were included in this process as support for Civil Protection and Police. The military’s role followed the military missions defined by the Defence Act; however, the government also proposed some changes to the act that were met with some doubts on the part of the public and different institutions.     

A branch and bound algorithm for computing optimal replacement policies in consecutive k‐out‐of‐n‐systems

This paper presents a branch and bound algorithm for computing optimal replacement policies in a discrete‐time, infinite‐horizon, dynamic programming model of a binary coherent system with n statistically independent components, and then specializes the algorithm to consecutive k‐out‐of‐n systems. The objective is to minimize the long‐run expected average undiscounted cost per period. (Costs arise when the system fails and when failed components are replaced.) An earlier paper established the optimality of following a critical component policy (CCP), i.e., a policy specified by a critical component set and the rule: Replace a component if and only if it is failed and in the critical component set. Computing an optimal CCP is a optimization problem with n binary variables and a nonlinear objective function. Our branch and bound algorithm for solving this problem has memory storage requirement O(n) for consecutive k‐out‐of‐n systems. Extensive computational experiments on such systems involving over 350,000 test problems with n ranging from 10 to 150 find this algorithm to be effective when n ≤ 40 or k is near n. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 288–302, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10017     

When Programming Trumps Policy and Plans: The Case of the US Department of the Navy11

Traditionally, policy and planning have been institutionally weak in the Naval Staff (Office of the Chief of Naval Operations – OPNAV). In their place, the N8 (Programming) has dominated resource decision-making, and, by default, decisions relating to policy and planning. Recent uncertainty over defense authorization and appropriations has resulted in calls for a greater role to be played by the N3/5, Policy and Plans Directorate. The article argues that reform of the Department of the Navy’s planning process is urgently needed. OPNAV’s weak planning and overly dominant programming practices are compared with those of the Departments of the Army and Air Force and are shown to be out of conformance with them. The article concludes with specific and detailed recommendations for reform of both the current planning and programming processes.     

基于贝叶斯网络的装备损伤定位系统研究

分析了贝叶斯网络在装备损伤定位方面的优势，及其损伤定位的方法与流程，建立了用于装备损伤定位的贝叶斯网络模型，并开发了损伤定位系统。以某型火炮为例，演示了其损伤定位的一般过程，验证了贝叶斯网络在装备损伤定位中应用的可行性与有效性。     

基于熵权的岸基油料保障设施设备效能评估

岸基油料保障是舰艇油料保障的重要方式，岸基油料保障设施设备效能直接影响舰艇油料保障效率。通过对影响岸基油料保障设施设备效能因素的分析，从储油设施设备、输油设施设备、油料装卸加注设施设备3个方面建立了评价指标体系。针对评价中指标权重确定时主观性较强的缺点，引入信息熵的概念进行评价指标权重的计算，建立了基于熵权的岸基油料保障设施设备效能评估模型。通过对3个基地岸基油料保障设施设备效能的实例分析，验证了模型，为舰艇岸基油料保障提供了决策依据。