Portfolio analysis for defense: taking account of networking

To manage their assets at an enterprise level, defense organizations have turned to portfolio theory for the planning, analysis and management of their military forces and materiel. Despite being well established in the commercial sector, the application of portfolio approaches in defense is problematic. The vexatious question for defense of how to define and measure benefits arising is complicated by the increased utility and effectiveness achieved through networking of military forces and the equipment they use. The authors discuss the challenges for defense in using a portfolio approach and propose a conceptual model for dealing with the effects arising from networking with information and communications technologies.     

Linking a throughput simulation to a systems dynamics simulation to assess the utility of a US Navy foreign humanitarian aid mission

The success of any humanitarian aid mission is generally measured by the timeliness of critical supplies that are delivered to the affected area. However, a more interesting analysis may be to determine the effect of the aid on the overall satisfaction of the local population. The authors' research focused on the delivery of humanitarian aid to a notional region that was decimated by flooding with ships, landing craft and security personnel provided by the US Navy and Marines. While the research effort addressed naval force structure, the focus of the research was: (1) to assess different delivery methods for the aid; and (2) to determine how the aid delivery impacted the overall satisfaction of the local population. To examine both concerns, two simulation models were developed, with one examining the throughput of aid delivered during the operation, and the other the satisfaction of the population based on the humanitarian aid effort.     

海上远程精确打击体系作战能力评估指标空间建模方法研究

现代战争的信息化程度、复杂性和不确定性不断提高,对海上远程精确打击（LPSS）体系作战能力的评估提出了更高的要求．要想准确评估系统的作战能力,建立合理的LPSS体系作战能力评估指标体系非常关键．然而影响LPSS体系作战能力的指标繁多,指标间存在冗余和相关性,不同层次指标间还存在交叉性,直接采用这些指标会增加后续评估的时空复杂度．在创建LPSS体系作战能力评估指标体系的基础上,对评估指标空间的建模方法进行研究,创建了可供评估的数据样本空间,为后续对底层指标集合进行约简、降维处理奠定了基础．     

油罐火灾泡沫灭火剂用量实战系数研究

通过统计我国典型油罐火灾案例,计算出实际火场的泡沫灭火剂实战系数,提出了油罐火灾泡沫灭火剂实际用量的3个影响因素:泡沫飞散罐外因素、着火油罐内部影响因素、气候影响因素。采用层次分析法建立了泡沫灭火剂用量评价数学模型,再将数学模型计算得到的结果与统计得到的实战系数进行对比,分析误差,有助于消防部队在火灾现场更加科学、合理地调用泡沫灭火剂。     

化学键合胶凝材料抗硫酸盐侵蚀性能

采用浸-烘循环的方法模拟干湿循环交替环境进行新型化学键合胶凝材料抗硫酸盐加速侵蚀试验.侵蚀溶液为质量浓度为5％的硫酸钠溶液,一组试验采用全浸-烘循环,另一组试验采用半浸-烘循环.在经受30×N(N=1,2,3,4,5)次循环后,测定试件的强度耐蚀系数和质量损失率,以此评价化学键合胶凝材料抗硫酸盐侵蚀性能.试验结果表明:半浸-烘循环的侵蚀比全浸-烘循环的侵蚀严重;在经受150次侵蚀循环后,试件外观无严重破损,质量不减反增,强度也不降低,说明化学键合胶凝材料具有优良的抗硫酸盐侵蚀性能.     

导弹尾罩分离运动不确定性分析

为了检验实际条件下导弹尾罩分离运动可能存在的风险,建立了基于凯恩方程的分离过程多体动力学模型与基于关键点-碰撞边界相对位置判断的碰撞检测模型,采用蒙特卡洛方法与Morris筛选法对输入参数存在随机偏差时尾罩分离运动受到的影响进行了不确定性分析,通过蒙特卡洛法得到了分离运动状态的散布特性,通过Morris筛选法得到了各输入变量的影响程度排序。研究结果表明:尾罩分离方案的可靠性较高,在输入参数存在偏差情况下也可满足安全性指标,各项输入参数中风干扰、推冲器的推力偏差对尾罩落点距离的影响相对较大,而导弹点火时尾罩的横向距离受风与出筒速度的影响相对较大。     

基于结构方程模型的作战能力评估方法

由于作战能力指标获取困难,当前的作战能力评估方法更多依赖专家知识,构建的模型往往缺乏足够的说服力。因此,在分析作战效能与作战能力关系的基础上,结合结构方程模型,提出一种从作战效能指标出发,评估作战能力的方法,并以某次反潜作战为背景,进行了实例分析。     

海军典型装备体系效能评估方法研究

在相关概念研究和装备体系效能评估难点分析的基础上,提出了利用计算仿真开展海军典型装备体系效能评估的方法。该方法根据仿真评估对象和关心问题层次的不同,将仿真任务划分为装备体系层、作战平台层和武器系统层等不同层面开展相应仿真实验研究,采用不同粒度的仿真实验系统,充分发挥各自专业领域优势,联合完成仿真实验任务。     

军队士气研究中应澄清的几个问题

对士气内涵的揭示,一直是个见仁见智的问题。对军队士气的研究应当从外延着手分析,确定真正符合士气本质属性的取舍标准。文章着重澄清以下几个问题:是士气的影响因素还是士气本身;士气能否被科学地测量;士气是否具有跨情境的稳定性;士气能否对战斗力构成影响。