基于多属性目标决策的威胁评估排序模型

针对当前海战中对舰艇编队构成威胁的空中目标的特点,运用目标多属性理论探索对空中目标的威胁排序问题.提出了一种对空中目标进行威胁评估和排序的方法,并通过示例介绍了威胁评估和排序的求解过程.该方法有效地解决了目标威胁评估与排序问题,提高了舰艇编队防空作战能力.     

水面舰艇防空火力兼容问题

火力兼容是水面舰艇对空防御火力使用上的难点之一。在描述了舰艇防空火力兼容的五条使用原则的基础上,从时域和空域两个方面,通过对舰空导弹、中口径舰炮和小口径舰炮使用时机与安全爆炸时间之间的关系进行深入研究,从理论上分析了水面舰艇防空火力的兼容问题,建立了相应的数学模型,对于提高水面舰艇的防空作战效能具有实际应用价值。     

浅析当前美国国防预算改革

美国是世界军费最高的国家,其国防预算的庞大规模导致管理过程异常复杂.这种复杂性也带来了种种问题,并催生了改革的需求.但由于国内外种种因素的制约,美国的国防预算改革进展缓慢.在美国预算赤字日益严重和外交政策愈来愈依赖军事力量的情况下,美国的国防预算改革迫在眉睫.本文系统梳理了美国国防预算制定与实施中的问题,包括资源与战略...     

Indian and Chinese espionage

India and China both have powerful spy networks; completely different in their approaches to espionage; both effective against their perceived enemies. China focuses first on internal threats, on Taiwan and Hong Kong, and then the US and Japan. India’s defense policy focuses on Pakistan and internal terrorist threats, and then on China. In reality, however, when it comes to spying on each other, both China and India suffer from incompetence and apathy – which endangers both their own security and regional stability. This article looks at how they spy on each other, and asks why and how they need to improve. The narrative also touches upon some of the individuals who are waging the spy war, from India’s wily spymaster Ajit Doval down to junior Chinese agents such as Wang Qing and Pema Tsering. The two countries are not friends. They have the largest territorial dispute in the world on their hands, covering an area the size of North Korea, and they have large armies facing each other along 4000 kilometers of frontier. But they also lay claim to the world’s two oldest and richest civilizations, with a rich history of exchange, and now with a combined population of 2.6 billion people and more than a quarter of the world’s economic output. If they cooperated, they could solve many of the world’s problems; but if they lurch into conflict, the potential consequences are terrifying to contemplate. Unfortunately, despite their geographical closeness, they do not know much about each other. They have few cultural interchanges, little diplomacy, few trade missions. They do not watch each other’s films, read each other’s books or listen to each other’s music. Chinese tourists would rather fly to New Zealand for their holidays than cross the border to India, and Indian students would rather study in Europe than China. China and India are neighbors that barely talk to each other. Most significantly, they do not spy on each competently. For countries that do not interact socially, defensive understanding is important for security – but China prefers the glamor of facing up to its Pacific and other maritime rivals such as the US and Japan. India, for its part, does talk a great deal about the China threat, but its resources and expertise are wrapped up in controlling its security threat from Pakistan and the Islamic world. When China and India do try to spy on each other, it is often without the benefit of a long-term focus or understanding. India has some very skilled operatives within the Research and Analysis Wing, but few that specialize in China. China has an enormous pool of resources spread across several government departments, including the Ministry of Public Security, and also has extensive facilities and manpower in the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (the JSD) and the new Strategic Support Force (the SSF). However, China’s intelligence services generally behave as if India is not worth spying on. Given that the two countries do not have the cultural or political machinery in place to understand each other, espionage and intelligence gathering is vital to ensure that miscalculations do not take place. This has been apparent over the last few years in stand-offs in the Himalaya, as well as top-level suspicions on each side about a variety of subjects including terrorism, covert operations in Sri Lanka and Burma, and the two countries’ nuclear weapons programs. Both countries do occasionally make efforts in espionage against each other, especially during sensitive periods such as the mountain stand-offs of 2014 and 2013 and during policy developments in nuclear warfare. In this article the author looks at actual spying incidents between the two countries, their methodologies, their staff, their technical capabilities, and how the act of spying, which is usually viewed as intrinsically adversarial, can be a force for good. The article relies on interviews with actual participants in intelligence from both countries as well as extensive use of contemporary online sources, and secondary analysis by both military and academic experts from China, India and NATO countries.     

Burden sharing and the future of NATO: wandering between two worlds

The US role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Alliance is a 65-year history of retrenchment and renewal. When Washington has sought a retrenchment from the world, it traditionally increased burden sharing pressure on Europe to do more. During times of increased global ambition, the USA reaffirmed its traditional leadership role in the Alliance and its commitment to NATO effectiveness and relevance. This cycle of NATO retrenchment and renewal, however, is halting. Though the USA will continue to go through periods of relative increases and decreases in security policy ambition, signs point to a permanent defense and security retrenchment in Europe. Germany is the ally singularly capable of filling the resulting security gap. If NATO is to avoid the drift toward irrelevance many critics have predicted, Germany will need to cast off old inhibitions toward security and defense leadership. These trends and their implications for NATO's future are explored through historical case studies and the shifting contemporary security environment.     

韩国反导政策:调整、原因及影响

韩国自20世纪90年代起开始考虑反导系统的构建以来,其反导政策经历了"明确反对加入美国反导体系,自主构建韩国型导弹防御系统"到"强化韩美、韩美日反导合作,谋求实质上融入美国反导体系"的显著调整与变化。韩国反导政策的演变与朝鲜核、导威胁的与日俱增、韩国自身反导能力的不足及美国的极力推动等因素密不可分。当前,韩国开始部署"萨德"末段高空区域反导系统,韩美反导合作日益深入,并向韩美日三边合作拓展,且取得了实质性的进展。韩国强化与美、日的反导联合,在军事、外交、安全方面引发了广泛影响。     

Validation of a strategy for harbor defense based on the use of a min‐max algorithm receding horizon control law

We present a validation of a centralized feedback control law for robotic or partially robotic water craft whose task is to defend a harbor from an intruding fleet of water craft. Our work was motivated by the need to provide harbor defenses against hostile, possibly suicidal intruders, preferably using unmanned craft to limit potential casualties. Our feedback control law is a sample‐data receding horizon control law, which requires the solution of a complex max‐min problem at the start of each sample time. In developing this control law, we had to deal with three challenges. The first was to develop a max‐min problem that captures realistically the nature of the defense‐intrusion game. The second was to ensure the solution of this max‐min problem can be accomplished in a small fraction of the sample time that would be needed to control a possibly fast moving craft. The third, to which this article is dedicated, was to validate the effectiveness of our control law first through computer simulations pitting a computer against a computer or a computer against a human, then through the use of model hovercraft in a laboratory, and finally on the Chesapeake Bay, using Yard Patrol boats. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 247–259, 2016     

潜艇使用自航式声诱饵防御声自导鱼雷模型研究

针对潜艇如何使用自航式声诱饵防御声自导鱼雷,分析了自航式声诱饵的初始航向范围,并建立了相应的防御模型.然后采用线性规划方法,求取最优的潜艇规避角度和诱饵航向.最后时典型态势进行仿真计算,结果表明,采用该方法得出的结果与实际作战基本符合,从而验证了模型的正确性.     

巡航导弹综合防御系统仿真研究

巡航导弹超低空突防效果好、命中精度高、价格低廉,这些优越的性能使其在近几次局部战争中大显身手,越来越受到世界各国的高度重视,也促使各国纷纷研究巡航导弹及其防御措施.国内对巡航导弹的防御研究多从电子对抗与火力打击两方面分别入手,缺乏对巡航导弹的综合防御系统及其仿真的研究.为了更好地研究巡航导弹的综合防御问题,在分析巡航导弹防御方法的基础上,提出构建对巡航导弹进行软硬对抗的综合防御系统,并建立了基于DIS的综合防御系统仿真框架,介绍了系统的体系结构和模型体系,对进一步深化巡航导弹防御研究具有重要的意义.     

防空兵战场控制能力评价模型

为了理解防空兵战场控制系统,分析影响战场指挥能力的因素,建立防空兵战场控制能力模型.将战场控制能力因素转化为量化指标,建立模型主要包括流程分析、指标体系建立、组织因素量化、权重计算等,运用AHP法、幂指数法建模计算,最终得出评价模型.为防空兵群战场控制能力评价提供了一种科学方法,从而便于实施防空兵群控制水平分析和战场控制资源效能分析.