A hybrid method for simulation factor screening

Factor screening is performed to eliminate unimportant factors so that the remaining important factors can be more thoroughly studied in later experiments. Controlled sequential bifurcation (CSB) and controlled sequential factorial design (CSFD) are two new screening methods for discrete‐event simulations. Both methods use hypothesis testing procedures to control the Type I Error and power of the screening results. The scenarios for which each method is most efficient are complementary. This study proposes a two‐stage hybrid approach that combines CSFD and an improved CSB called CSB‐X. In Phase 1, a prescreening procedure will estimate each effect and determine whether CSB‐X or CSFD will be used for further screening. In Phase 2, CSB‐X and CSFD are performed separately based on the assignment of Phase 1. The new method usually has the same error control as CSB‐X and CSFD. The efficiency, on the other hand, is usually much better than either component method. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

模糊启发规则的防空作战智能指控系统决策

为提高防空作战智能指控系统决策效率,在充分考虑专家经验知识的基础上,利用模糊启发规则对智能指控系统决策模型中的规则和推理方法进行改进.通过对防空作战打击决策输出结果的编程计算,得到打击决策输出方案与实际作战决策结果一致.该方法可使模糊规则条数减少,输入向量和模糊矩阵的维数降低,推理计算速度加快,却不影响最终决策输出结果.     

Equitable bandwidth allocation in content distribution networks

Applications for content distribution over networks, such as Video‐on‐Demand (VOD), are expected to grow significantly over time. Effective bandwidth allocation schemes that can be repeatedly executed must be deployed since new programs are often installed at various servers while other are deleted. We present a model for bandwidth allocation in a content distribution network that consists of multiple trees, where the root of each tree has a server that broadcasts multiple programs throughout the tree. Each network link has limited capacity and may be used by one or more of these trees. The model is formulated as an equitable resource allocation problem with a lexicographic maximin objective function that attempts to provide equitable service performance for all requested programs at the various nodes. The constraints include link capacity constraints and tree‐like ordering constraints imposed on each of the programs. We present an algorithm that provides an equitable solution in polynomial time for certain performance functions. At each iteration, the algorithm solves single‐link maximin optimization problems while relaxing the ordering constraints. The algorithm selects a bottleneck link, fixes various variables at their lexicographic optimal solution while enforcing the ordering constraints, and proceeds with the next iteration. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

我国跨境恐怖主义犯罪的防控与惩治

我国跨境恐怖主义犯罪日益猖獗,不仅造成了大量的无辜平民伤亡和公私财产的损失,而且侵害了其他国家的利益和国际社会的共同秩序。防范和惩治我国跨境恐怖主义犯罪活动,应当坚持经济和社会的协调发展,消除恐怖主义滋生的土壤;积极参与多边安全合作,探寻维护我国安全利益的新途径;完善我国反恐怖主义犯罪的刑事立法。     

Winston Churchill and the third front 1

The premise of most Western thinking on counterinsurgency is that success depends on establishing a perception of legitimacy among local populations. The path to legitimacy is often seen as the improvement of governance in the form of effective and efficient administration of government and public services. However, good governance is not the only basis for claims to legitimacy, especially in environments where ethnic or religious identities are politically salient. Some experience in Iraq suggests that in environments where such identities are contested, claims to legitimacy may rest primarily on the identity of who governs, rather than on how whoever governs, governs. This article outlines the intellectual foundations of existing policy and doctrine on counterinsurgency, and argues that development and analysis of counterinsurgency strategy would benefit from a greater focus on the role of ethnic and religious identity in irregular warfare.     

Fixed‐interval joint‐replenishment policies for distribution systems with multiple retailers and stochastic demand

We consider a distribution system consisting of a central warehouse and a group of retailers facing independent stochastic demand. The retailers replenish from the warehouse, and the warehouse from an outside supplier with ample supply. Time is continuous. Most previous studies on inventory control policies for this system have considered stock‐based batch‐ordering policies. We develop a time‐based joint‐replenishment policy in this study. Let the warehouse set up a basic replenishment interval. The retailers are replenished through the warehouse in intervals that are integer multiples of the basic replenishment interval. No inventory is carried at the warehouse. We provide an exact evaluation of the long‐term average system costs under the assumption that stock can be balanced among the retailers. The structural properties of the inventory system are characterized. We show that, although it is well known that stock‐based inventory control policies dominate time‐based inventory control policies at a single facility, this dominance does not hold for distribution systems with multiple retailers and stochastic demand. This is because the latter can provide a more efficient mechanism to streamline inventory flow and pool retailer demand, even though the former may be able to use more updated stock information to optimize system performance. The findings of the study provide insights about the key factors that drive the performance of a multiechelon inventory control system. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 637–651, 2013     

Dynamic service rate control for a single‐server queue with Markov‐modulated arrivals

We consider the problem of service rate control of a single‐server queueing system with a finite‐state Markov‐modulated Poisson arrival process. We show that the optimal service rate is nondecreasing in the number of customers in the system; higher congestion levels warrant higher service rates. On the contrary, however, we show that the optimal service rate is not necessarily monotone in the current arrival rate. If the modulating process satisfies a stochastic monotonicity property, the monotonicity is recovered. We examine several heuristics and show where heuristics are reasonable substitutes for the optimal control. None of the heuristics perform well in all the regimes and the fluctuation rate of the modulating process plays an important role in deciding the right heuristic. Second, we discuss when the Markov‐modulated Poisson process with service rate control can act as a heuristic itself to approximate the control of a system with a periodic nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process. Not only is the current model of interest in the control of Internet or mobile networks with bursty traffic, but it is also useful in providing a tractable alternative for the control of service centers with nonstationary arrival rates. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 661–677, 2013     

The incentive effect of acceptance sampling plans in a supply chain with endogenous product quality

This article studies a firm that procures a product from a supplier. The quality of each product unit is measured by a continuous variable that follows a normal distribution and is correlated within a batch. The firm conducts an inspection and pays the supplier only if the product batch passes the inspection. The inspection not only serves the purpose of preventing a bad batch from reaching customers but also offers the supplier an incentive to improve product quality. The firm determines the acceptance sampling plan, and the supplier determines the quality effort level in either a simultaneous game or a Stackelberg leadership game, in which both parties share inspection cost and recall loss caused by low product quality. In the simultaneous game, we identify the Nash equilibrium form, provide sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium, and find parameter settings under which the decentralized and centralized supply chains achieve the same outcome. By numerical experiments, we show that the firm's acceptance sampling plan and the supplier's quality effort level are sensitive to both the recall loss sharing ratio and the game format (i.e., the precommitment assumption of the inspection policy). © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Directional change‐point detection for process control with multivariate categorical data

Most modern processes involve multiple quality characteristics that are all measured on attribute levels, and their overall quality is determined by these characteristics simultaneously. The characteristic factors usually correlate with each other, making multivariate categorical control techniques a must. We study Phase I analysis of multivariate categorical processes (MCPs) to identify the presence of change‐points in the reference dataset. A directional change‐point detection method based on log‐linear models is proposed. The method exploits directional shift information and integrates MCPs into the unified framework of multivariate binomial and multivariate multinomial distributions. A diagnostic scheme for identifying the change‐point location and the shift direction is also suggested. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the detection effectiveness and the diagnostic accuracy.© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Analysis of the finite‐source multiclass priority queue with an unreliable server and setup time

In this article, we study a queueing system serving multiple classes of customers. Each class has a finite‐calling population. The customers are served according to the preemptive‐resume priority policy. We assume general distributions for the service times. For each priority class, we derive the steady‐state system size distributions at departure/arrival and arbitrary time epochs. We introduce the residual augmented process completion times conditioned on the number of customers in the system to obtain the system time distribution. We then extend the model by assuming that the server is subject to operation‐independent failures upon which a repair process with random duration starts immediately. We also demonstrate how setup times, which may be required before resuming interrupted service or picking up a new customer, can be incorporated in the model. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013