基于参数稳态判定的两阶段序贯仿真分析策略

两阶段序贯分析方法是仿真(模拟)实验研究中的一种常用方法,它虽然可以通过控制实验给出符合精度要求的结果数据,但以其现有形式有时却无法避免冗余计算的存在和实验过早终止的可能.在回顾了现有终态仿真解算终止策略特点的基础上,分析了所需样本总数的估计值与当前可用样本间的变化关系,提出了一种基于参数稳态判定的改进两阶段序贯方法....     

Coherent systems based on sequential order statistics

The sequential order statistics (SOS) are a good way to model the lifetimes of the components in a system when the failure of a component at time t affects the performance of the working components at this age t. In this article, we study properties of the lifetimes of the coherent systems obtained using SOS. Specifically, we obtain a mixture representation based on the signature of the system. This representation is used to obtain stochastic comparisons. To get these comparisons, we obtain some ordering properties for the SOS, which in this context represent the lifetimes of k‐out‐of‐n systems. In particular, we show that they are not necessarily hazard rate ordered. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Periodic review inventory management with contingent use of two freight modes with fixed costs

We study a stochastic inventory model of a firm that periodically orders a product from a make‐to‐order manufacturer. Orders can be shipped by a combination of two freight modes that differ in lead‐times and costs, although orders are not allowed to cross. Placing an order as well as each use of each freight mode has a fixed and a quantity proportional cost. The decision of how to allocate units between the two freight modes utilizes information about demand during the completion of manufacturing. We derive the optimal freight mode allocation policy, and show that the optimal policy for placing orders is not an (s,S) policy in general. We provide tight bounds for the optimal policy that can be calculated by solving single period problems. Our analysis enables insights into the structure of the optimal policy specifying the conditions under which it simplifies to an (s,S) policy. We characterize the best (s,S) policy for our model, and through extensive numerical investigation show that its performance is comparable with the optimal policy in most cases. Our numerical study also sheds light on the benefits of the dual freight model over the single freight models. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

现行火灾事故调查制度应用分析及完善路径探讨

《火灾事故调查规定》是规范火灾事故调查,保障公安机关消防机构依法履行职责,保护火灾当事人合法权益的基本规章。结合《火灾事故调查规定》的应用实践,阐述了新修订的《火灾事故调查规定》一些制度设计对火灾事故调查工作的影响,分析了其适用中存在的问题,提出了解决这些问题的对策,有助于进一步完善火灾事故调查制度。     

我国周边安全形势对边防工作的影响及应对策略

边防工作作为国防的重要组成部分,涉外性强,受周边安全形势影响大。当前,我国的边防工作既面·l盏着难得的发展机遇,同时更要直面各种挑战。分析周边安全环境对我国边防的影响,可以使我们更好地认清形势,趋利避害,抓住机遇,充分发挥职能作用,确保边防安全稳定。     

我国反恐系统化处置机制的建构

恐怖主义是威胁当今世界和平与稳定的主要因素。“藏独”和“疆独”是我国当前面临的主要恐怖势力。传统单一性的反恐处置模式在打击恐怖主义时很容易陷入顾此失彼的困难境地。坚持立足全局和放宽视野,从系统化的角度提出一套反恐处置战略具有十分重要的理论价值和实践意义。在反恐处置机制中,要充分发挥法律战的基础性作用、情报战的先导性作用、经济战的根源性作用、心理战的瓦解性作用、舆论战的宣传性作用以及协作战的堵截性作用。     

灭火初战应把握的关键环节

灭火作战初战是整个灭火战斗的前期战,它的成功与否直接影响到整个灭火战斗的成败。重点论述了如何把握初战的火情侦查、火场救人、控制火势等三个关键环节,以期对基层广大指战员有所指导。     

基于聚类算法的多无人机系统任务分配

针对现有任务分配方法在任务点较多时不易解算,且计算量大的问题,提出了基于模糊C-均值聚类算法的多无人机系统任务分配方法.首先,利用模糊C-均值聚类算法得到的隶属度矩阵对任务点进行初始分配;其次,针对基于空间划分聚类可能造成各UAV任务不均衡的问题,设计任务的局部优化调整规则;最后,结合单旅行商问题,利用Tabu Sea...     

Optimal sample size allocation for tests with multiple levels of stress with extreme value regression

In this article, we discuss the optimal allocation problem in a multiple stress levels life‐testing experiment when an extreme value regression model is used for statistical analysis. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators, the Fisher information, and the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of the maximum likelihood estimators. Three optimality criteria are defined and the optimal allocation of units for two‐ and k‐stress level situations are determined. We demonstrate the efficiency of the optimal allocation of units in a multiple stress levels life‐testing experiment by using real experimental situations discussed earlier by McCool and Nelson and Meeker. Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the optimality results hold for small sample sizes as well. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.