Minimum deterrence and missile defenses: what's new,what's true,what's arguable

Minimum deterrence is a compromise, or halfway house, between nuclear abolition or nearly zero and assured destruction, the dominant paradigm for strategic nuclear arms control during and after the cold war. Minimum deterrence as applied to the current relationship between the United States and Russia would require downsizing the numbers of operationally deployed long-range nuclear weapons to 1000, or fewer, on each side. More drastic bilateral Russian–American reductions would require the cooperation of other nuclear weapons states in making proportional reductions in their own arsenals. In addition, US plans for European-based and global missile defenses cause considerable angst in Russia and threaten to derail the Obama “reset” in Russian–American relations, despite the uncertainties about current and plausible future performances of missile defense technologies.     

电磁发射弹丸飞行弹道仿真

针对电磁发射弹丸飞行弹道进行仿真研究,在建立刚体六自由度飞行弹道模型的基础上,采用时频分析和涡流分析方法,建立电磁-动力学耦合模型分析弹丸出膛时由于膛内振动带来的炮口扰动,采用动网格技术建立电磁-气动耦合模型分析弹托分离产生的气动扰动,从而得到了电磁发射弹丸的飞行弹道模型。以得克萨斯大学先进技术研究所设计的IAT-HVP为例,仿真分析了弹丸以1117 m/s初速、0°射角出膛时弹丸出口扰动对弹体速度和气动特性的影响,并得到其飞行200 m的弹道曲线。仿真结果表明,受电磁发射一体化弹丸出口扰动的影响,弹体落点相比理想弹道产生了24%的偏差,其中炮口扰动引起的偏差最大,其次是弹托分离。     

坦克火控系统射击诸元解算仿真模型

火控系统射击模型仿真是坦克分布式交互仿真的重要内容,直接影响着仿真结果的可信度。通过分析实车火控系统数学模型,在简化了外弹道模型的基础上,结合仿真实现,建立了射击诸元解算的仿真模型。     

“自主式”角速率火控系统弹道气象修正问题研究

弹道气象修正是火控系统不可缺少的关键环节,对“自主式”角速率火控系统来说更是个技术难题。文中提出的弹道气象修正数学模型,解决了“自主式”角速率火控系统中的弹道气象修正问题。不仅考虑了其原理的正确性,而且分析了其实现的可行性。本模型与文献￣［１］的解相遇原理公式组成一整套通用、完备的“自主式”解算数学模型。     

两种轰炸弹道快速积分算法的比较

利用数学仿真,测试了两种轰炸弹道快速积分方法：中国湖算法和极坐标算法,后者是西北工业大学（ＮＰＵ）开发的。对某型航弹的弹道诸元解算的结果表明,无论是精度还是实时计算量,后者都优于前者甚多。     

以发射质量最小为优化目标的反TBM拦截器优化研究

以反ＴＢＭ拦截器发射质量最小为优化目标,系统地研究了反ＴＢＭ拦截器总体优化技术,建立了反ＴＢＭ拦截器数学模型和优化算法,并得出重要结论。     

DSP实现坦克火控系统弹道微分方程数值算法

针对现役坦克火控系统弹道解算广泛采用的逼近法的缺点和不足,提出了改进后的弹道微分方程直接数值解算算法,以数字信号处理器(DSP)作为该算法的硬件实现环境进行了实验。结果表明,以DSP技术为基础的改进弹道微分方程解算算法解决了逼近法的不足。解算速度快,精度高。这说明该算法在坦克火控系统应用中具有良好的发展前景。     

A transformed insurgency: The strategy of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) in the light of communist insurgency theories and a modified Beaufrean exterior/interior framework

This paper examines the insurgency in Nepal (1996–2008) from a military theoretical point of view. It looks at the insurgency from André Beaufre's exterior/interior framework, which is modified to match postmodern conflicts. Simultaneously the importance of the political is underlined. The author critically examines the relevance of the Maoist label the movement and insurgency have received. He claims that the insurgency became a hybrid consisting of Chinese, Latin American, and Leninist thoughts wrapped in pragmatic/revisionists and nationalist ideas. The author also suggests that the ability of insurgents – or counter-insurgents – to combine the effects of the exterior and interior is more likely to constitute the key centre of gravity of a conflict than any single political, economic, or military factor.     

Boost-glide Weapons and US-China Strategic Stability

ABSTRACT

The United States and China are testing boost-glide weapons, long-range strike systems capable of flying at Mach 5 or faster through the upper atmosphere. For the United States, these systems would provide a conventional prompt global strike capability, which, together with US ballistic missile defense programs, Chinese experts regard as a threat to China's ability to conduct nuclear retaliation. This perception is encouraging the Chinese military to modify its nuclear posture in ways that tend to create greater risks for both sides. If China's own boost-glide systems are meant to carry nuclear payloads only, their deployment would not fundamentally alter the current situation between the two states. However, if they were conventionally armed or dual-purpose, or if the United States could not determine the payloads they carried, the deployment of Chinese boost-glide systems could compound problems of strategic stability created by the introduction of ballistic missile defense, antisatellite, and antiship ballistic missile capabilities. If the technical hurdles can be overcome, it may be difficult for the two sides to refrain from these deployments in the absence of strong mutual trust or an established arms-control relationship. New confidence-building measures and expanded mutual transparency are warranted to avoid creating new dangers.     

气缸张开式尾翼弹气缸压力数值仿真研究

为研究气缸张开式尾翼工作原理,分析某型滑膛反坦克炮榴弹气缸充放气过程,建立尾翼弹在炮膛内的气缸压力模型,将其与炮弹底部气体压力、密度、温度等参量的变化规律相耦合,并对气缸压力模型进行可解性分析,得到一种求解气缸气体压力、密度等参数随时间变化的数值方法．