面向装备作战仿真的弹药调拨供应决策建模方法研究

针对用线性规划方法在解决弹药调拨供应决策过程中存在的弹药调拨供应量的分配与弹药保障原则关联不紧密的问题,采用目标规划理论与方法,引入优先级区分主要作战方向和次要作战方向弹药库的重要程度,在同一优先级上以权重区分一梯队、二梯队及预备队弹药库的弹药保障优先顺序,使得模型的构建过程与弹药保障原则紧密相联。同时,在模型构建过程中,综合考虑了弹药消耗预测量、弹药储备标准和弹药运输时限等因素对弹药调拨供应决策的影响,并从本级弹药储备不足和充足两种情况进行了数值模型及分析,验证了模型的正确性与可靠性,为弹药调拨供应提供了决策支持与理论支撑。     

THE CASE FOR DEFENCE

What is the case for defence and is it a worthwhile investment? This question is addressed for two contrasting nations, namely, the UK and New Zealand. Economists have a set of standard analytical tools for addressing the question but they are difficult to operationalise. This paper provides policy‐relevant answers.     

The inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in weaponry

Thomas Schelling argues that armed adversaries face an inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in their weaponry, geography and military organizations. Inherent propensity is the idea that there are characteristics embodied in the weapons that push adversaries toward peace or war, independent of the goals of the decision‐makers, the political disagreement between adversaries, and misperceptions about mutual resolve and hostility. We theoretically illustrate inherent propensity in conventional and nuclear arms settings using Lanchester and Intriligator war models. Our work extends the Intriligator‐Brito model, identifies when the competing Richardson and Intriligator‐Brito views of the relationship between arms races and war are correct, illustrates the stabilizing/destabilizing effects of alliances, and highlights the importance of arms quality control in the US‐USSR relationship.     

战时装备调配保障决策模型构建研究

分析了战时装备调配保障决策的特点,运用模糊聚类分析法对装备调配保障对象进行了分组和优先级排序,以此为基础,运用目标规划法构建了战时装备调配保障决策模型,最后,通过实例验证了模型的可行性和有效性．     

基于非对称balls-into-bins的高效平衡负载分配模型

在大规模数据中心和P2P覆盖网络等复杂网络负载平衡分配中,前人提出了多种多样的负载分配方法,但许多方法为了达到更好的平衡负载指标,追求越来越复杂的算法,使得时间复杂度和算法复杂度很难控制在合理的范围之内。本文在研究了经典balls-into-bins、Azar balls-into-bins和balls into non-uniformbins等模型的基础上,提出了一种新颖高效的非对称balls-into-bins平衡负载分配模型,该模型具有异构的balls、异构的bins,以及不同的bin选择概率,能以很高的概率将最大负载均衡地控制在合理的范围内,通信负载很小,且具有很好的可扩展性,通过拓展,该模型在负载平衡的诸多领域都将有广阔的应用空间。     

基于巡逻历史与道路优先级的武警巡逻策略

针对武警巡逻车辆配置问题,引入了Dijkstra最短路径算法、K—means聚类算法以及计算几何的相关理论,建立了一套警车巡逻模型,并提出了评价巡逻效果的量化评价标准。采用Dijkstra与K—means算法解决了静态警车配置问题;针对警车动态巡逻方案的设计,提出了基于巡逻历史与道路优先级的道路概率选择算法,并给出了不同情况下的警车配置以及巡逻方案。通过MATLAB仿真实验,证明了算法及模型的先进性和实用性。     

新疆固定资产投资环境与趋势分析

截止目前，新疆固定资产投资运行情况比较平稳，与全国相比，投资增速处于中等水平。全社会固定资产投资预计完成1595亿元，增长18％。建成和开工建设了一大批重大基础设施和重点基础产业项目，投资结构进一步改善，农业、水利、交通、能源、生态建设、社会事业等薄弱环节投资力度明显加大，生态环境保护建设取得明显成效。     

An exact analysis of a joint production‐inventory problem in two‐echelon inventory systems

We consider a two‐echelon inventory system with a manufacturer operating from a warehouse supplying multiple distribution centers (DCs) that satisfy the demand originating from multiple sources. The manufacturer has a finite production capacity and production times are stochastic. Demand from each source follows an independent Poisson process. We assume that the transportation times between the warehouse and DCs may be positive which may require keeping inventory at both the warehouse and DCs. Inventory in both echelons is managed using the base‐stock policy. Each demand source can procure the product from one or more DCs, each incurring a different fulfilment cost. The objective is to determine the optimal base‐stock levels at the warehouse and DCs as well as the assignment of the demand sources to the DCs so that the sum of inventory holding, backlog, and transportation costs is minimized. We obtain a simple equation for finding the optimal base‐stock level at each DC and an upper bound for the optimal base‐stock level at the warehouse. We demonstrate several managerial insights including that the demand from each source is optimally fulfilled entirely from a single distribution center, and as the system's utilization approaches 1, the optimal base‐stock level increases in the transportation time at a rate equal to the demand rate arriving at the DC. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

防空监视网络传感器资源分配的最优化

针对防空监视网络的传感器管理问题,讨论了传感器资源分配的最优化方法。提出了把传感器资源分配问题映射为多代理系统分布约束最优化问题的解决策略,设计了基于约束代价下界搜索的异步分枝定界最优化算法,实现了传感器资源分配问题最优解的异步并行搜索,给出的仿真实例说明了传感器资源分配最优化方法的有效性。     

遗传算法在目标跟踪中的传感器分配算法

传感器在进行目标跟踪时,常规算法主要通过线性规划建立传感器与目标之间的分配方法.但是在对多目标和多传感器的战场环境中,这些方法有一定局限性.研究了基于遗传算法的传感器分配方法,通过构造符合传感器分配这一特殊问题的染色体,从而形成初始种群,然后利用遗传算法模拟生物遗传迭代和自然选择的遗传机理,通过多次选择最终收敛于问题的一个满意解.仿真显示,在大数据运算的环境中,该算法有更高的可行性和有效性.