国内装备采购研究现状与趋势研究——基于CiteSpace知识图谱软件的可视化分析

本文利用CiteSpace知识图谱分析和可视化工具,从时间分布、期刊来源和作者机构等方面对CNKI中文期刊全文数据库2001年1月1日至2020年6月30日间收录的以"装备采购"为关键词的642篇学术论文及文献进行数据可视化分析,并通过关键词词频共现分析对该领域的高频关键词进行了词频统计。在利用CiteSpace软件对"装备采购"相关文献进行统计分析后,详细论述了装备采购研究的发展趋势,并总结出目前军队装备采购研究的现状与不足,如军队内部科研力量作为装备采购领域研究的核心组成部分,相互间缺乏交流研究;装备采购领域研究方向多元,但基础理论、概念研究不够深入等。在此基础上梳理出优化后期装备采购领域研究发展的建议,以期为完善军队装备采购领域的研究工作提供一定参考。     

知识图谱的预警探测体系探测效能贝叶斯评估方法

战争中,预警探测体系作为典型的复杂系统,其探测效能发挥情况的有效评估一直是亟需人们研究解决的重要现实问题.突破了传统效能评估方法的局限,在分析了知识图谱技术、贝叶斯评估方法基本原理的基础上,提出了基于两者综合运用的预警探测体系探测效能评估新方法,利用专家知识和实验数据构建知识图谱,并进一步使用贝叶斯网络方法实施知识推理...     

基于可信度的网络安全性分析方法

提出了一个基于可信度方法的网络安全性分析模型。该模型在脆弱点信息、脆弱点之间的关系、脆弱点与安全性的关系的表示中引入可信度因子,通过不确定推理对主机和网络的安全性进行分析。该模型能综合考虑诸多因素,有效处理安全性分析中的不确定知识。     

对知识经济时代下培养大学生自主创新能力的思考

随着知识经济时代的到来,自主创新能力是经济和社会发展的重要支撑。作为高等学校,担负着培养自主创新能力人才的任务,但是传统的高等教育观念,制约着学生自主创新能力的形成和发展。如何更新高等教育观念,积极探索培养学生自主创新能力的新途径,是每个教育工作者需要认真研究和思考的新课题。     

舰艇协同作战导弹防御模型研究

舰艇协同作战是未来战争的主要作战形式,导弹防御是其主要的作战职责.运用信息论的方法对舰艇协同作战中敌方导弹发射策略的不确定性进行建模,运用可靠性理论对协作效果进行建模,并引进知识的概念作为其度量,同时用边的函数对网络复杂性进行建模,综合这两种因素在以最大化防御时间为总的决策目标,以己方导弹储备和敌方来袭速率为决策因素对导弹防御作出辅助决策.     

DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

Patents and Dual-use Technology: An Empirical Study of the World's Largest Defence Companies

Abstract

This paper examines the generation of technological knowledge by leading companies in the defence industry. In particular, we test whether the characteristics of large defence companies are related to both the production of different types of patents (civilian, military and mixed), and the generation of dual-use technologies. To explore these links, we rely on economic data for the top 100 defence companies from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute database, and patent information from the Worldwide Patent Statistical Database. Our results show that the relationship between the production of civilian patents and the size of the company is positive and significant. However, this relationship does not hold for the production of military patents. Furthermore, the military commercial profile is unrelated to the generation of military patents. Regarding the involvement in dual-use technologies, firms engaged in dual-use are those with higher military sales, a greater number of employees and a larger number of patents (civilian, military and mixed) than those not engaged in dual-use. Furthermore, we found a skill effect (more involvement in dual-use per employee) in European firms compared to US firms. These findings help to identify which firms should be targeted by government policies if increasing dual-use technologies becomes a political objective.     

利用网络动力学评估复杂社会网络知识传播性能

为了对复杂社会网络知识传播性能进行评估,提出了利用复杂网络动力学和知识传播指数相结合的评估模型,该模型综合考虑了网络的拓扑特性、个人的知识普及能力和对知识的感兴趣程度,通过网络知识传播指数阈值的大小来衡量网络的知识传播性能.通过仿真发现,知识在社会网络中的传播对均匀网络平均度值和无标度网络初始传播节点度值的依赖性小,对知识传播指数的依赖性大;在相同条件限制下,无标度社会网络的知识传播性能要高于平均度值相等的均匀社会网络.     

Think again – supplying war: reappraising military logistics and its centrality to strategy and war

This article argues that logistics constrains strategic opportunity while itself being heavily circumscribed by strategic and operational planning. With the academic literature all but ignoring the centrality of logistics to strategy and war, this article argues for a reappraisal of the critical role of military logistics, and posits that the study and conduct of war and strategy are incomplete at best or false at worst when they ignore this crucial component of the art of war. The article conceptualises the logistics–strategy nexus in a novel way, explores its contemporary manifestation in an age of uncertainty, and applies it to a detailed case study of UK operations in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001.