导弹武器系统费用-效能分析研究

应用评价武器系统效能和全寿命周期费用理论,建立了导弹武器系统效能、费用和费用-效能分析模型。武器系统的费用-效能分析是一项较复杂的系统工程,它综合了系统战术、技术、经济多方面的因素,按优化原则进行处理,比较和权衡,在众多的方案中选出最优化的一种。     

软件可靠性的过程仿真技术

以软件研制的生命周期为背景,探讨利用仿真模型对软件可靠性进行研究的方法．文章阐述了仿真模型分析方法与传统的模型分析方法的不同之处,通过对软件可靠性过程的分析,设计了一个基本的仿真器结构,由此考察引发失效行为的各种故障因素及其对软件可靠性的影响．     

火炮身管寿命的分布函数

本文运用可靠性理论和《130mm 加农炮剩余寿命的一种预测模型》一文的结果,证明火炮身管寿命服从 Weibull 分布,并以130mm 加农炮为实例,给出参数的比值估计方法.     

战术数据链网络设计优化方法

网络设计优化问题直接关系到战术数据链系统效能的发挥。在分析数据链系统中不同消息类别有不同系统响应时间要求的基础上,提出了一种新的网络设计优化方法。通过建立模型讨论了单个数据链轮询网络的轮询周期、网络成员容量、每个轮询周期内各成员的点名次数等因素间的数学关系。并以Link-11为例进行分析计算。结果表明,该分析方法有效可行,为解决战术数据链网络设计及优化问题提供了一种思路。     

Design of accelerated life testing plans under multiple stresses

Accelerated life testing (ALT) using multiple stresses is commonly used in practice to resemble the operating stresses at normal operating conditions and obtain failure observations in a much shorter time. However, to date, there is little research into the theory of planning ALT for reliability estimation with multiple stresses. ALT with multiple stresses can result in a large number of stress‐level combinations which presents a challenge for implementation. In this article, we propose an approach for the design of ALT plans with multiple stresses and formulate multistress test plans based on different objectives and practical constraints. We develop a simulated annealing algorithm to efficiently determine the testing plan parameters. We demonstrate the proposed method with examples based on an actual test conducted using three stress types. The obtained optimal test plans are compared with those based on fractional factorial design. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 468–478, 2013     

The defence firm of the future

This paper offers the personal view of a senior executive in the Defence Procurement Agency about the future requirements of the defence industry’s principal UK customer. The focus here is on trying to identify the type of corporate behaviour and range of skill sets that the UK Government will need from defence suppliers, both primes and supply chain companies in the future. The concluding message from this ‘Customer View’ is that there is likely to be a continuing market for the company that specializes in delivering defence capability. It will be a company that will be looking for a long‐term relationship, with a specialist knowledge of its various national customers and a willingness to work openly and closely with them. It will be agile in its ability to bring together diverse technologies, to package them as a system and to deliver them either as hardware or as a service. Such suppliers will also need to innovate and to adapt at least as rapidly as the threats that they seek to counter.     

Life cycle costs for decision support ‐ a study of the various life cycle costs used at different levels of defence policy and management∗

Debates on many aspects of defence economics ‐ on the scale of defence expenditure, on the allocation of that expenditure to various military capabilities, and on the selection of equipment offering the best value for money ‐ are bedevilled by misunderstandings and misconceptions about the costs of defence equipment. This paper seeks to improve understanding of defence equipment costs by defining a hierarchy of defence equipment within which the direct and indirect life cycle costs of defence equipment may be allocated at different levels. Having reviewed the direct and indirect components of the life cycle cost, this paper then shows how different costing studies for different purposes require different approaches to life cycle costing, and that there is no unique life cycle cost which can be assigned to one particular item of defence equipment. There is instead a range oflife cycle costs, each of which is appropriate for a particular study, and it is important that a quoted cost of an item of defence equipment should be used only in the pertinent circumstances. The paper is written from a UK perspective and accordingly uses British nomenclature, but its principles should be relevant to defence cost studies in other nations.     

多捐赠者肾脏调换问题

用于器官移植的肾脏处于严重的短缺状态。为缓解这一问题,越来越多的国家开始实施各种形式的肾脏调换计划。肾脏调换问题一般被建模为一个合作博弈(KE)。其中的局中人为病人及与其配型失败的捐赠者所构成的二元组。现实中不乏拥有多个配型失败捐赠者的病人。定义了多捐赠者肾脏调换博弈(MDKE),分析了其可行解及稳定解的结构,证明了捐赠多颗肾脏无益于参与稳定调换,将TTC算法、KE稳定解的NP难解性以及最大覆盖稳定解的不可近似性拓展到MDKE。实验表明引入MDKE效果显著。     

武器装备可用性设计对寿命周期费用的影响及控制

可用性设计是装备综合保障分析的重要内容.合适的可用度指标不但要满足装备效能要求,还应满足费用约束条件.为了设计并选择出费效比最高的保障方案,研究了可用性设计对装备寿命周期费用的影响,提出了运用可用度门限值来控制寿命周期费用的方法,并举例说明具体的应用.最后,就保障性设计中的费用权衡问题提出了几点建议.     

Switching costs,dynamic uncertainty,and buyer–seller relationships

We analyze strategic relationships between buyers and sellers in markets with switching costs and dynamic uncertainty by investigating the scenario wherein a representative buyer trades with two foreign sellers located in the same foreign country. We show that, under exchange rate uncertainty, switching costs may lead to switching equilibria where both sellers co‐exist in the market with the buyer, or no‐switching equilibria where either seller captures the market. The presence of exchange rate uncertainty facilitates competition by allowing the sellers to co‐exist in the market with the buyer. However, if the level of uncertainty is beyond a threshold, the only viable equilibria are those where one of the sellers captures the market. Further, depending on the level of exchange rate uncertainty and the sellers' variable costs, switching costs may either raise or lower the level of prices in long‐term contracts between the buyer and the sellers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007