基于故障率和设计特性动态加权的维修性分配法

针对国军标中"按故障率和设计特性的维修性分配方法",当可更换单元故障率相差较大时,分配结果与实际明显不符的问题,采用动态加权模型,对国军标的分配方法进行了改进,提出了"基于故障率和设计特性动态加权的维修性分配法",弥补了国军标分配方法的不足。通过理论分析、论证、算例比较和维修性试验验证,证明该方法合理可行。     

基于Bayes理论的装备维修性验证方法

针对装甲装备关键部件维修性验证中出现的小子样问题,提出了基于Bayes理论的小子样维修性验证,重点针对对数正态分布下维修性指标验证的验后似然比验证方法进行了深入研究。通过对装甲装备某关键部件的试验数据的实例分析,验证了该方法在减少样本容量及试验费用方面的有效性和合理性。     

舰空导弹系统可靠性维修性对训练影响研究

以舰空导弹武器系统远洋训练为研究背景,分析了舰空导弹武器系统可靠性维修性对训练的影响。提出了可靠性维修性对训练影响的具体指标,通过建立模型和仿真计算,在理论和应用上分析了航空导弹武器系统可靠性维修性对其训练的影响,得到了仿真应用结果并基于可靠性维修性提出了对舰空导弹系统训练使用的建议。     

维修性增长趋势检验研究

对即时改进和延缓改进两种维修性增长规划方式进行了趋势检验研究.针对即时改进的维修性增长规划方式,提出了趋势检验的图示法和Laplace方法.针对延缓改进的维修性增长规划方式,根据修复率(第i阶段的修复率为μi)的顺序约束条件:∞>μm≥…≥μi≥…≥μ2≥μ1>0,探讨了指数分布和正态分布维修性增长趋势检验的区间估计法,并结合数值例说明了这些方法的可行性.     

Meeting the growing safeguards burden

ABSTRACT

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces challenges in fulfilling its safeguards mandate as a result of an expanding safeguards burden and a relatively static budget. This dilemma has been exacerbated by the additional burdens of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Iran, but would not go away if implementation of the JCPOA were to end. There are three main areas of opportunity for the Agency: (1) budgetary expansion tied to changes in staffing policies, (2) changes in safeguards approaches, and (3) technological innovation. Barriers and limitations are associated with each approach, and advancing any of them will face a difficult political environment in Vienna.     

舰炮武器系统维修性试验方法研究

根据现代海战的要求,对舰炮武器系统维修性试验的必要性和重要性作出分析阐述;依据舰炮武器系统的组成特点,科学地制定了维修性试验的基本程序和试验项目;给出舰炮武器系统维修性试验具体试验方案.     

M&S中周期数据质量保证

数据的有效性与精确性在M&S全周期的校核、验证与确认过程中起着重要作用.从保证全生命周期的数据质量出发,说明了数据质量保证评估的体系结构,重点介绍了从数据采样到结论生成全周期中保证数据质量的基本原理和详细步骤.     

Priori information analysis of optocoupler accelerated degradation experiment based on failure mechanism verification test

The optocoupler is a weak link in the inertial navigation platform of a kind of guided munitions. It is necessary to use accelerated storage test to verify the storage life of long storage products. Especially for small sample products, it is very important to obtain prior information for the design and implementation of accelerated degradation test. In this paper, the optocoupler failure mechanism verification test is designed and the experimental results are analyzed and the prior information is obtained. The results show that optocouplers have two failure modes, one is sudden failure and the other is degradation failure; the maximum temperature stress of optocoupler can't exceed 140 °C; the increase of leakage current of optocoupler is caused by movable ions contaminating the LED chip. The surface leakage current is proportional to the adsorption amount. The increase of leakage current makes p-n junction tunneling effect occur which LEDs the failure of the optocoupler. The lifetime distribution model of the optocoupler is determined by the failure physics. The lifetime of the optocoupler is subject to the lognormal distribution. The degeneracy orbit of the optocoupler leakage current is described by a power law model. The estimated values of the orbital parameters are initially calculated and the parameters of its life distribution function are deduced. The above information lays a good foundation for the optimization design and data processing of the accelerated degradation experiment.     

Controlling Novichoks after Salisbury: revising the Chemical Weapons Convention schedules

ABSTRACT

Novichok agents are a class of nerve agents developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In light of the use of a Novichok agent in Salisbury in March 2018, two sets of proposals to amend Schedule 1 of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) have been put forth, one jointly by the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands, and the other by Russia. Both sets of proposals will be discussed and voted upon at the next Conference of States Parties of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in November 2019. If either set of proposals is approved, it will be the first time that the list of chemicals subject to verification under the CWC will have been modified. This viewpoint will discuss these proposals, and argue that, if adopted, the joint proposal and the portions of the Russian proposal upon which consensus can be reached would significantly strengthen the CWC by considerably expanding the coverage of its Schedule 1 and bringing Novichok agents firmly within the CWC’s verification system. We also argue that, since the OPCW Technical Secretariat did not deem the fifth group of chemicals proposed by Russia to meet the criteria for inclusion in Schedule 1, Russia should withdraw this part of its proposal from consideration. The proposals have also served an important purpose in clarifying the identity of the chemical agent used in the Salisbury incident, squarely placing it within one of the two families of Novichok agents described by the Russian chemical-weapons scientist and whistleblower Vil Mirzayanov. If either proposal is approved in November, it will be important to conduct a thorough assessment of key precursors for the synthesis of Novichok agents and assess the need to amend CWC schedules and national and multinational export-control lists accordingly.     

当前消防建审工作面临的挑战及对策

以我国从计划经济向社会主义市场经济转型的国情实际为出发点 ,结合WTO的规则要求 ,分析当前消防建审工作存在的问题 ,并提出应对方法和措施。