基于WSR方法论的军事环境安全策略研究

为了克服新形势下军事发展面临的一系列环境安全问题,不断加强军事环境管理工作,拓展并解析了军事环境安全的概念,建立了基于WSR方法论的军事环境安全三维分析模型.结合模型的“物理”、“事理”、“人理”分析,提出了一套相互关联的军事环境安全策略,为进一步深入研究并制定军事环境安全战略规划提供了重要参考.     

钢质油罐底板腐蚀概率估计

针对钢质油罐底板腐蚀,首先分析了油罐底板腐蚀工程检测数据的特点和腐蚀试验数据统计分析理论;然后针对工程检测信息不完全的特性,以最大腐蚀深度的预测估计为目标,建立了以轻微腐蚀面积估计来实现腐蚀概率修正估计的模型;最后利用广州等地27个罐约900条检测数据估计了油罐底板的最大腐蚀深度。其最大相对误差小于45%,约80%的相对误差优于30%。     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

预防性维修工作组合优化

针对单部件的维修间隔期无法反映系统的维修最佳间隔期这一问题,对装备各部件在各修理级别上的预防性维修任务组合情况进行探索。通过建立费用模型、可用度和风险模型作为决策模型,用以组合某一修理级别各部件的维修工作,得出系统预防性维修间隔期,并结合部队实际优化从系统的角度优化等级维修中的维修工作间隔期,为确定大中小修工作提供科学、合理的理论指导。该算法在区分各修理级别的维修能力的基础上,能较好地对各修理级别的维修工作组合情况进行了优化,实例验证了模型的实用性和有效性。     

Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

刍议抛锚式教学策略在教育学课程教学中的应用

抛锚式教学把学生设于真实的情境中,让学生达到认知冲突,让学生自己去分析问题、学习解决该问题所需的知识,逐步地解决问题。作为教师职前教育的一门重要的基础课程教育学,其教学效果一直不尽如人意。而抛锚式教学法为教育学的教学模式改啦提供了一种新的思路。     

Market entry strategy in the presence of market spillovers and efficiency differentiation

Firms form various alliances or use brand extensions to enter new markets in order to improve their operational efficiency and create a positive spillover. However, they do not always know the implications of these strategies for market entry and multimarket competition because the sale of products in one market can have negative spillover effects on product sales in other markets. We present an analytical framework to examine whether and how (i.e., by choosing alliance entry or independent entry) competing firms should enter a market in a situation where market spillovers occur when a firm enters a spillover-producing market to sell products that may increase or decrease the consumers' willingness to pay for products in the primary market. Our analysis shows that the operational efficiency (or quality differentiation ability) of firms in a spillover-producing market varies, and hence, the impact of market spillovers differs for firms. We identify the key factors, such as bargaining power, brand value difference in the primary market, and the extent of efficiencies and spillovers, that determine the firms benefitting from the different entry strategies. Specifically, we show that firms would be more willing to choose an alliance strategy to enter a spillover-producing market if the negative spillover is small and alliance efficiency is high. In contrast, if an alliance entry is not favored, the firms' relative operational efficiency is crucial for them to decide whether to enter the market independently under moderate spillover conditions. Finally, we show the implications of market entry strategies for managers.     

基于认知实验的虚拟维修训练效果评估研究

为了客观、准确地评估虚拟维修训练系统的训练效果,从实验的角度出发,提出了基于认知实验的虚拟维修训练效果评估方法。首先,分析了虚拟维修训练的评估现状;其次,重点阐述了该方法的实施步骤,并通过对比维修人员基于传统训练手段和虚拟维修训练手段的考试成绩,评估训练系统的训练效果,为系统的改进、优化以及下一步的推广使用提供了重要的理论依据;最后,通过实例分析,验证了该方法的可行性和科学性.     

Strategy selection: an info-gap methodology

The evaluation and selection of military strategy requires consideration of myriad factors – social, historical, political, geographical and technological – together with vast uncertainties encompassing all these domains. Info-gap decision theory is a conceptual framework that can support these deliberations and that has substantive implications for the formulation, evaluation and selection of strategic goals and of the means to attain them. In particular, while the analyst may desire to reliably achieve the best possible outcome, info-gap theory provides a critique of, and alternative to, the paradigm of optimizing the outcome of a decision. In selecting between strategy alternatives, the analyst must sometimes choose between one alternative that is purportedly better than another, but also more uncertain. Such a choice is a dilemma whose resolution requires the analyst to balance between the different predicted qualities of each alternative and their different vulnerabilities to uncertainty. The dilemma can be managed with the info-gap methodology of robustly satisfying critical requirements.     

全球治理视角下奥巴马政府太空战略解读

作为重要的全球公域范围与全球治理对象之一,太空既面临着日益严峻的资源、环境与安全问题,又不断彰显着其极具地缘政治意义的战略地位,攸关国家利益与安全。自进入太空时代以来,争夺和维持太空领域的领先地位一直是美国不懈追求的目标。美国的经济、军事等国家实力越来越依赖太空,同时其太空资产的脆弱性也愈发凸显。面对新的国际国内形势与外空态势的复合挑战,奥巴马政府适时调整了美国的太空战略。文章以全球公域和全球治理为切入视角,在分析太空领域全球治理现状的基础上,从太空活动行为准则的制定、太空国际合作的深入、太空军备竞赛的规制三个层面解读奥巴马政府的新版太空战略,并探讨其深层次的动因与影响,进而为中国参与太空领域的全球治理提供有益的理论支撑与现实参考。