Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry

Customer acquisition and customer retention are the most important challenges in the increasingly competitive telecommunications industry. Traditional studies of customer switching always assume that customers are homogeneous, and thus that model customer switching behavior follows a Markov formulation. However, this postulation is obviously inappropriate in most instances. Blumen et al. (Cornell Studies of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1955) developed the Mover–Stayer (MS) model, a generalization of the Markov chain model, to relax the requirement of homogeneity and allow the presence of heterogeneity with two different types of individuals—“stayers,” who purchase the same kinds of products or services throughout the entire observation period; and “movers,” who look for variety in products or services over time. There are two purpose of this article. First, we extend the MS model to a Double Mover‐Stayer (DMS) model by assuming the existence of three types of individuals in the market: (1) stable and loyal customers, who have stable usage within the same company; (2) instable but loyal customers, whose usage varies within the same company over time; and (3) disloyal customers, who switch from one company to another to seek for new experiences or/and benefits. We also propose an estimation method for the DMS model. Second, we apply the DMS model to telecommunications data and demonstrate how it can be used for pattern identification, hidden knowledge discovery, and decision making. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

多源信息的验前分布融合方法研究

验前分布的获取和表示是B ayes理论应用中的一个关键问题。针对目前多源验前信息融合中存在的过分依赖专家信息的问题,提出了一种基于第2类极大似然估计原理(M L-II)确定验前分布权重的方法,该方法将现场试验数据看作是由其边缘分布产生的样本,然后根据不同验前分布下现场样本似然性的大小来确定其在验前分布融合中的作用,并以此进一步确定不同验前分布的权重因子。最后通过算例证明了该方法比基于专家信息的融合方法更为合理和有效。     

机载雷达与地面雷达的最大似然配准算法

空、地多雷达配准是空地一体化预警的前提。通过建立空中运动雷达与地面静止雷达的配准模型,以最大似然算法为基础,导出其空间系统误差配准参数及目标运动状态估计的具体公式,并对系统误差估计值的卡拉美-罗界进行了讨论。仿真结果表明,该算法具有较快的迭代收敛速度和较好的配准效果。     

海上对空弹目偏差精度试验的设计分析与应用

对空射击的弹目偏差测量需求十分迫切,利用空间声传感器阵测量弹目偏差向量,提取所需N波的时间宽度和各N波出现的时间,计算处理得到炮手坐标系的弹目偏差。由于采用测偏结果,使得系统射击时直接命中目标。具有测偏校射功能的新型观测设备,对舰炮武器系统和跟踪雷达、光电跟踪仪定型试验是必不可少的测量设备。脱靶向量是定量分析计算舰炮武器系统最重要的性能——射击效力,即命中概率和毁伤概率的依据。虽多次试验结果很好,但仍需要大量试验数据信息进一步验证完善。     

某型履带车辆偏驶现象仿真研究

利用MSC．ADAMS/ATV模块建立了某型履带车辆的多体动力学模型。针对该履带车辆在直线行驶换挡过程中发生偏驶的现象,分析了产生偏驶现象的原因。利用该型履带车辆的多体动力学模型,对在典型路面条件下车辆的行驶情况进行了仿真,在仿真过程中履带车辆发生了偏驶,证明了所分析故障原因的正确性。     

On‐line parameter estimation for a partially observable system subject to random failure

In this paper, we study the on‐line parameter estimation problem for a partially observable system subject to deterioration and random failure. The state of the system evolves according to a continuous time homogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The system state is not observable, except for the failure state. The information related to the system state is available at discrete times through inspections. A recursive maximum likelihood (RML) algorithm is proposed for the on‐line parameter estimation of the model. The RML algorithm proposed in the paper is considerably faster and easier to apply than other RML algorithms in the literature, because it does not require projection into the constraint domain and calculation of the gradient on the surface of the constraint manifolds. The algorithm is illustrated by an example using real vibration data. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

基于GA-ML-PMHT的多基站无源协同定位方法

针对无源协同定位系统中低可观测目标的航迹初始及维持问题,提出一种基于遗传算法的极大似然概率多假设的多基站无源协同定位方法。首先,建立多基站无源协同定位系统数学模型。其次,提出基于极大似然概率多假设的无源协同定位航迹初始算法,并首次利用遗传算法解决极大似然概率多假设中的优化求解问题,以提高目标检测跟踪性能。最后,通过滑窗法实现航迹维持。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够有效解决多基站无源协同定位系统中低可观测目标的航迹初始及维持问题。     

真实静电感度测试的数据处理方法

简要介绍了静电感度测试方法的研究现状,结合真实静电感度测试研究的实际情况并参照GJB377—87感度试验用升降法,导出了试样50％发火能及其发火能量标准差的计算公式,给出了多组试验参数的统计计算方法,确定了试样静电最小点火能的置信区间。     

黑体辐射数值反演新方法

应用广义偏离原则对黑体辐射问题进行了反演的研究,给出了正则参数的选择方法,由计算机仿真结果知,该方法计算精度高,有良好的应用前景。     

高等数学中典型错误剖析及对策

在教学中 ,教师若能预先估量学生的错误 ,有针对性的教学 ,就一定能取得满意的教学效果。本文对高等数学中学生所犯典型错误作归因化剖析并给出相应的对策