复杂系统研制阶段可靠性增长的评估模型

针对复杂系统可靠性增长管理中采取延缓修正的故障修正方式，提出了一种系统阶段可靠性增长的评估模型。在阶段ｋ应用Ｂａｙｅｓ定理，得出系统可靠性的点估计、置信区间估计，并对评估结果进行任务周期修正；通过λｋ的先验分布利用前面１，…，ｋ－１阶段试验的信息，在相邻的两个阶段，引入增长因子０＜ηｋ＜１以表现可靠性的增长。最后给出一个应用实例。     

基于微裂纹模型的材料可靠性预计

讨论了微裂纹的某些不同于大型裂纹的增长特性,提出了一种微裂纹在某种材料上的多级扩展模型,利用微裂纹的增长数据来预计材料的可靠性。     

软件可靠性数学仿真测试平台设计与研制

针对火控软件的特点和要求,研制出面向软件可靠性验证的数学仿真测试平台,并根据典型的火控程序,有效地完成了分析与测试工作.测试系统界面友好,测试结果达到设计要求.     

战车火控系统软件可靠性的仿真测试平台

以平均无故障时间间隔(MTBF)和任务成功率为主指标,以某型坦克火控系统为载体,提出了战车非制导武器火控系统软件可靠性仿真测试平台的方案,并对其软件可靠性的仿真测试与验证技术进行了讨论.     

装备系统保障性的界定探讨

本文通过对武器装备的保障、保障性的定义与内涵、保障性参数、保障性与可靠性以及维修性的界面处理等问题的研究,探讨装备系统保障性的界定问题.     

面向任务的模块化战备方案修订及运用模式

针对当前信息技术发展的推进及部队使命任务的拓展和转型实际,对模块化战备方案研究现状进行了深入分析,面向作战任务,从任务、组织、专业和装备4个方面对模块化的战备方案进行了构建,对战备方案的运用流程进行了描述,而后以特种部队为案例,介绍了具体的模块组成,并引入反恐怖作战行动案例进行了合理性验证。通过模块化战备方案规划,保证不同情况任务模块的构造能力和组合能力,提高了战备方案的灵活性、适用性和可靠性。     

Threshold optimization for weighted voting classifiers

Weighted voting classifiers considered in this paper consist of N units each providing individual classification decisions. The entire system output is based on tallying the weighted votes for each decision and choosing the one which has total support weight exceeding a certain threshold. Each individual unit may abstain from voting. The entire system may also abstain from voting if no decision support weight exceeds the threshold. Existing methods of evaluating the reliability of weighted voting systems can be applied to limited special cases of these systems and impose some restrictions on their parameters. In this paper a universal generating function method is suggested which allows the reliability of weighted voting classifiers to be exactly evaluated without imposing constraints on unit weights. Based on this method, the classifier reliability is determined as a function of a threshold factor, and a procedure is suggested for finding the threshold which minimizes the cost of damage caused by classifier failures (misclassification and abstention may have different price.) Dynamic and static threshold voting rules are considered and compared. A method of analyzing the influence of units' availability on the entire classifier reliability is suggested, and illustrative examples are presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 322–344, 2003.     

基于专家系统的弹道导弹目标识别方法

传统Dempster-Shafer(D-S)算法及其改进算法中,一般将冲突证据与不冲突证据统一融合,无论融合过程中冲突证据所占权重多小,这都将降低融合效率。针对这个问题,引入专家系统理论,面向信息融合中证据冲突的问题,将冲突证据与无冲突证据分组,构建了基于专家信任度的弹道导弹目标识别模型和专家知识库模型,从工程上设计了弹道导弹目标识别专家知识库系统,提出了两种专家知识权重确立方法,并通过实例以及仿真,验证了算法的可行性。     

现代水雷控制电路中开关器件可靠性分析及其应用

从现代水雷控制电路开关器件的可靠性出发,对有触点和无触点开关器件的特点进行了研究,特别是对功率三极管B772和双线圈自锁继电器DS2Y SL2 DC6V的性能及可靠性进行了深入的对比分析,得到了开关器件选择准则,给水雷开关控制电路设计提供了理论依据.结论是:当控制系统工作时间较长而开、关不是很频繁时,用自锁继电器比用功率三极管更合适.     

Systems composed of two types of nonidentical and dependent components

A coherent system of order n that consists two different types of dependent components is considered. The lifetimes of the components in each group are assumed to follow an exchangeable joint distribution, and the two random vectors, which represent the lifetimes of the components in each group are also assumed to be dependent. Under this particular form of dependence, all components are assumed to be dependent but they are categorized with respect to their reliability functions. Mixture representation is obtained for the survival function of the system's lifetime. Mixture representations are also obtained for the series and parallel systems consisting of disjoint modules such that all components of Type I are involved in one module (subsystem) and all components of Type II are placed in the other module. The theoretical results are illustrated with examples. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 388–394, 2015