喷雾式防火分隔水幕稳定性仿真

以单个喷雾式水幕喷头为研究对象,利用 Fluent 中离散相模型对不同压力下的喷雾水幕的工作稳定性进行了研究,计算了不同工作压力下水雾粒子的粒径分布和在气流作用下的偏移情况,分析了不同粒径粒子的速度衰减特性。研究表明：环境气流对水幕的稳定性影响很大,特别是粒径在200μm 以下的水雾粒子极容易受气流影响。在一定空间高度下,提高工作压力,可以使喷雾平均粒径变小,使之分布更均匀,有利于提高水幕的隔热性能;当空间高度超过一定范围后,水雾粒子速度急剧下降,增加工作压力水幕稳定性会降低。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

弹道导弹关机点状态估计的指数加权递归最小二乘方法

在双星预警条件下,将指数加权递归最小二乘算法应用于目标关机点状态估计问题中。通过引入加权因子对目标助推段运动的局部拟线性特性进行描述,从而在一定程度上克服了一般的线性多项式模型难以准确刻画整个助推段运动的难题。通过对助推段目标动力学特性的分析,考察了目标在垂直射面方向上的运动特性。在此基础上,提出了一种更为准确的助推段运动模型。仿真算例表明,所提出的关机点状态估计方法相对于传统的方法具有一定的优越性。     

LFMCW雷达MTD处理的分析与研究

将LFMCW雷达运用于主动防护系统时,由于受到发射信号泄露以及地杂波、噪声等因素的影响,往往难以满足低虚警概率的要求。工程上可以利用MTD技术提高信噪比抑制虚假目标。但对于快速来袭的导弹目标,由于在连续的检测周期内目标往往并非出现在同一个距离分辨单元内,直接采用MTD算法进行信号处理并不能得到理想的检测效果。针对这一问题,首先分析了目标在相邻检测周期跨越距离单元造成的回波相位变化及其对信号积累的影响;其后提出在已知目标速度和未知目标速度的情况下分别进行MTD相位补偿的方法,并通过仿真验证了该方法的有效性。     

弹药库防静电方法研究

根据弹药库静电危险场所的分类等级,以形成静电危害的3个基本条件为依据,讨论了弹药库防静电危害常用措施:设施设备静电接地、防静电工作台、人体静电防护、铺设导电(或防静电)地面以及各自防静电要求.这些措施为防止和消除弹药库的静电危害提供了根本保障.     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

基于全相位的同频融合分层算法

同频融合算法在处理频率快速变化的信号等应用中具有精度高、抗噪性好的优点,然而该算法实时性较差且精度受相位差测量影响较大。提出了基于全相位的同频融合分层算法,通过设计分层算法以减少多重循环中的冗余计算单元,可在不牺牲精度的前提下成倍降低运算量;采用全相位谱分析法降低相位差测量误差,明显改善了相位差补偿效果。理论分析与对比实验表明,该算法对同频融合过程有显著的改进效果。