Predicting intensive care unit bed occupancy for integrated operating room scheduling via neural networks

In a master surgery scheduling (MSS) problem, a hospital's operating room (OR) capacity is assigned to different medical specialties. This task is critical since the risk of assigning too much or too little OR time to a specialty is associated with overtime or deficit hours of the staff, deferral or delay of surgeries, and unsatisfied—or even endangered—patients. Most MSS approaches in the literature focus only on the OR while neglecting the impact on downstream units or reflect a simplified version of the real‐world situation. We present the first prediction model for the integrated OR scheduling problem based on machine learning. Our three‐step approach focuses on the intensive care unit (ICU) and reflects elective and urgent patients, inpatients and outpatients, and all possible paths through the hospital. We provide an empirical evaluation of our method with surgery data for Universitätsklinikum Augsburg, a German tertiary care hospital with 1700 beds. We show that our model outperforms a state‐of‐the‐art model by 43% in number of predicted beds. Our model can be used as supporting tool for hospital managers or incorporated in an optimization model. Eventually, we provide guidance to support hospital managers in scheduling surgeries more efficiently.     

军事维和多模态网络自主学习平台建设

为了推进维和军事训练的创新发展,军队必须大力进行维和训练理念、模式、方法和手段的改革,有效提升维和官兵的实战能力。本文依据多模态理论、自主学习理论和建构主义学习理论的研究成果,根据网络环境实际提出构建以培训学习者岗位任职综合技能为目的、以强军网络学习环境为依托的基于浏览器/服务器(B/S)架构模式的军事维和多模态网络自主学习平台。该平台能够让学生自主选择学习内容、查看学习进度和效果反馈、访问优质数字资源、利用虚拟社区与教师和同学共同讨论学习内容、学习心得,并且通过智能化的推荐来合理制定适合自身认知结构的学习计划和方式。平台的建立为构建以学习能力、实践能力、创新能力培养为导向,与新型军事人才培养相适应的教学体系和教学模式提供了有益的探索。     

Maneuvering target tracking of UAV based on MN-DDPG and transfer learning

Tracking maneuvering target in real time autonomously and accurately in an uncertain environment is one of the challenging missions for unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs).In this paper,aiming to address the control problem of maneuvering target tracking and obstacle avoidance,an online path planning approach for UAV is developed based on deep reinforcement learning.Through end-to-end learning powered by neural networks,the proposed approach can achieve the perception of the environment and continuous motion output control.This proposed approach includes:(1)A deep deterministic policy gradient(DDPG)-based control framework to provide learning and autonomous decision-making capa-bility for UAVs;(2)An improved method named MN-DDPG for introducing a type of mixed noises to assist UAV with exploring stochastic strategies for online optimal planning;and(3)An algorithm of task-decomposition and pre-training for efficient transfer learning to improve the generalization capability of UAV's control model built based on MN-DDPG.The experimental simulation results have verified that the proposed approach can achieve good self-adaptive adjustment of UAV's flight attitude in the tasks of maneuvering target tracking with a significant improvement in generalization capability and training efficiency of UAV tracking controller in uncertain environments.     

Allocation of quality improvement targets based on investments in learning

Purchased materials often account for more than 50% of a manufacturer's product nonconformance cost. A common strategy for reducing such costs is to allocate periodic quality improvement targets to suppliers of such materials. Improvement target allocations are often accomplished via ad hoc methods such as prescribing a fixed, across‐the‐board percentage improvement for all suppliers, which, however, may not be the most effective or efficient approach for allocating improvement targets. We propose a formal modeling and optimization approach for assessing quality improvement targets for suppliers, based on process variance reduction. In our models, a manufacturer has multiple product performance measures that are linear functions of a common set of design variables (factors), each of which is an output from an independent supplier's process. We assume that a manufacturer's quality improvement is a result of reductions in supplier process variances, obtained through learning and experience, which require appropriate investments by both the manufacturer and suppliers. Three learning investment (cost) models for achieving a given learning rate are used to determine the allocations that minimize expected costs for both the supplier and manufacturer and to assess the sensitivity of investment in learning on the allocation of quality improvement targets. Solutions for determining optimal learning rates, and concomitant quality improvement targets are derived for each learning investment function. We also account for the risk that a supplier may not achieve a targeted learning rate for quality improvements. An extensive computational study is conducted to investigate the differences between optimal variance allocations and a fixed percentage allocation. These differences are examined with respect to (i) variance improvement targets and (ii) total expected cost. For certain types of learning investment models, the results suggest that orders of magnitude differences in variance allocations and expected total costs occur between optimal allocations and those arrived at via the commonly used rule of fixed percentage allocations. However, for learning investments characterized by a quadratic function, there is surprisingly close agreement with an “across‐the‐board” allocation of 20% quality improvement targets. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 684–709, 2001     

模型不可知的联合相互学习

主流的联邦学习(federated learning, FL)方法需要梯度的交互和数据同分布的理想假定,这就带来了额外的通信开销、隐私泄露和数据低效性的问题。因此,提出了一种新的FL框架,称为模型不可知的联合相互学习 (model agnostic federated mutual learning, MAFML)。MAFML仅利用少量低维的信息(例如,图像分类任务中神经网络输出的软标签)共享实现跨机构间的“互学互教”,且MAFML不需要共享一个全局模型,机构用户可以自定制私有模型。同时,MAFML使用简洁的梯度冲突避免方法使每个参与者在不降低自身域数据性能的前提下,能够很好地泛化到其他域的数据。在多个跨域数据集上的实验表明,MAFML可以为面临“竞争与合作”困境的联盟企业提供一种有前景的解决方法。     

基于迭代学习观测器的卫星姿态滑模容错控制

为解决卫星上反作用飞轮存在安装偏差、故障及外部干扰情况下的姿态控制问题,提出了一种基于迭代学习观测器的姿态容错控制方法。该方法通过设计迭代学习观测器,以较小的计算量实现对执行机构发生的故障以及安装偏差进行精确的估计。并利用观测器的观测结果设计滑模控制器,使处于外部干扰条件下的卫星系统在执行机构发生故障的情况下可以快速稳定地完成姿态机动任务。进一步基于Lyapunov稳定性定理证明了迭代学习观测器及控制器的全局渐近稳定性。针对反作用飞轮存在不确定性及故障的情况下进行仿真,仿真结果表明,与同类容错控制方法相比,所提方法可以更加快速精确地对故障进行估计并完成姿态控制。     

信号稀疏分解理论在轴承故障检测中的应用

将信号稀疏分解理论引入到轴承故障检测问题中,提出新的轴承故障检测方法。通过字典学习的方式可有效实现轴承正常状态振动信号稀疏表示的超完备字典。利用该字典只适用于轴承正常状态信号稀疏分解的特点,将待分析信号在该字典上展开,通过比较信号稀疏表示误差与所设定阈值的关系来判断轴承对应的状态,从而实现轴承的故障检测。实验结果表明:当误差阈值设置合理时,该方法可有效地判断出轴承是否发生故障。     

Learning ‘Under Fire’: Israel’s improvised military adaptation to Hamas tunnel warfare

What organisational attributes enhance a military’s ability to effectively adapt on the battlefield? Upon the outbreak of war in July 2014 between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) encountered an expansive network of tunnels from which Hamas was launching large-scale assaults into Israel. This article illustrates that the IDF’s ability to successfully adapt ‘under fire’ to this battlefield surprise was facilitated by several important attributes related to its organisational learning capacity: a dynamic, action-oriented organisational culture, a flexible leadership and command style, specialised commando units which acted as ‘incubators’ for learning and innovation, and a formal system to institutionalise and disseminate lessons learned.     

关于改进综合英语课程教学的思考

本文从英语专业的培养目标入手，分析了英语专业综合英语课程教学中存在的问题，通过对如何改进该课程教学的探讨，提出了在教学中重视培养学生的综合能力、学习策略及创新能力，英语专业人才培养才能更好地为社会需求服务。     

新疆喀什地区泽普县维族双语教师汉语水平调查研究

教师的水平制约着教育的发展，双语教师在双语教育中起着重要作用。本文对新疆喀什地区泽普县维族双语教师的汉语水平进行实地调研，找出他们汉语水平存在的问题，并针对问题提出建议。