基于遗传算法的弹炮混编防空群火力分配

近期局部战争中的防空作战经验表明:实施弹炮混编可以大大提高防空武器系统的作战效能,而如何实施有效的火力分配又是其中的一个重要环节.针对陆军弹炮混编防空群射击指挥中的火力分配问题,简要分析了防空导弹和高炮武器系统射击的不同特点,提出了弹炮混编防空群的火力分配方法,并建立了优化火力分配方案的数学模型.在此基础上,采用遗传算法对此模型求解.结果表明,遗传算法为弹炮混编防空群的火力优化分配问题提供了一条有效途径.     

舰艇编队对空防御火力分配评价模型

未来高技术条件下水面舰艇编队防空作战能力是其生存能力的关键因素.对舰艇编队防空来讲,进行硬抗击的武器主要是舰空导弹和舰炮两种,如何合理地利用这些武器,最大地发挥舰艇编队的防空作战能力,成为舰艇对空防御作战研究的一个重要课题.结合舰艇编队对空防御的实际情况,利用模糊数学的方法,建立了舰艇编队对空防御火力分配方案的模糊综合评价模型.     

关于增强各民族国家认同的几点思考

当今是民族个性张扬的时代,极端民族主义、恐怖主义和民族分裂主义是其外在表现形式,这是一种异化的民族认同,不利于各民族国家内部各民族对该国的国家认同和国家安全。应该以公民权为本位来构建民族认同,进而形成整体的国家认同;以保障公民生存权平等为契机,构建现实意义上的国家认同;以维护各民族人民的根本利益为核心,化民族主义为爱国主义;以保证各民族的和睦发展为目标,整体提高国家构建新时期和谐社会的能力。     

涉外型院校实施体育“双语教学”的可行性研究

在社会飞速发展的时代,经济的进步促使知识的日新月异,导致教学模式的不断创新。伴随着我国加入WTO,双语教学应运而生.在体育教学中运用双语教学,是体育教学模式的大胆尝试和教学手段的创新.涉外型院校具有实施体育双语教学得天独厚的条件,双语教学的实施具有重要意义,并有可行性。     

对知识经济时代下培养大学生自主创新能力的思考

随着知识经济时代的到来,自主创新能力是经济和社会发展的重要支撑。作为高等学校,担负着培养自主创新能力人才的任务,但是传统的高等教育观念,制约着学生自主创新能力的形成和发展。如何更新高等教育观念,积极探索培养学生自主创新能力的新途径,是每个教育工作者需要认真研究和思考的新课题。     

新疆高校学生体育锻炼态度与习惯的调查研究

高等教育中的体育教育直接肩负着“增强学生个体体质、促进学生个体健康”的使命,使我们培养的学生不但要掌握现代科学文化知识,还要有良好的身体素质和健康的体魄。而体育锻炼态度和习惯的培养是实现高校体育目标和任务的重要环节。本文通过对新疆省几所重点高校男女学生体育锻炼态度和习惯的调查与比较,从而分析高校男女学生在体育锻炼态度和习惯的差异和联系。为顺利完成高校体育教育的目标和任务,提供研究参考。     

THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD DEFENSE INDUSTRY AND US MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL ON THE ISRAELI DEFENSE INDUSTRY: A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS MODEL

This paper models the interactions between the defense industry market structure and the defense needs of Israel, the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods. The model specifies that the defense industries of the US and Europe are ‘large’ while that of Israel is ‘small’. The US military aid to Israel is also an integral part of the model. The results show that net defense costs of Israel are minimal when the number of its defense firms is one. The model predicts that an increase in US military aid reduces Israel’s government expenditure, its defense industry’s profits and its net defense costs.     

NEGOTIATING NONPROLIFERATION: Scholarship,Pedagogy, and Nuclear Weapons Policy

In nuclear nonproliferation negotiations, many governments pursue multiple objectives, and changes in policy can occur rapidly—and often unexpectedly. For these reasons, understanding nonproliferation requires empathy and imagination rather than just historical fact. This article considers one teaching tool to encourage such insight—simulations—and demonstrates how teaching and scholarship can interact to improve our understanding of the complex decisions and negotiations involved in nuclear nonproliferation. The article consists of five parts: first, it explains the benefits of simulations as both a policy development tool in Washington and as a teaching tool in universities; second, it describes the pedagogical strategy of the Stanford University simulation program; third, it shows how the simulations have identified and highlighted theoretical and substantive insights that are often neglected in scholarly studies of nonproliferation; and fourth, it describes how students are tested to enhance the learning experience from the simulation. Fifth and finally, the article provides concluding observations about how using simulations in the classroom can help scholars develop insights that improve their understanding of real-world nuclear negotiation dynamics and outcomes.     

The structure of the defense industry and the security needs of the country: a differentiated products model

This paper models the interactions between the defense needs of the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods, and the defense industry market structure. The results show that net defense costs of the USA and Europe are lower when the number of defense firms in each arms‐producing country is small and when the world prices of the defense goods are high. The model predicts that the increase in world prices will crowd‐out countries in the developing world from the market for modern weapon systems and may force them to develop and use ‘cheap and dirty’ weapon systems.     

Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach

Abstract

We use the k-th-order nonparametric causality test at monthly frequency over the period of 1985:1 to 2016:06 to analyze whether geopolitical risks can predict movements in stock returns and volatility of 24 global defense firms. The nonparametric approach controls for the existing misspecification of a linear framework of causality, and hence, the mild evidence of causality obtained under the standard Granger tests cannot be relied upon. When we apply the nonparametric test, we find that there is no evidence of predictability of stock returns of these defense companies emanating from the geopolitical risk measure. However, the geopolitical risk index does predict realized volatility in 50% of the companies. Our results indicate that while global geopolitical events over a period of time is less likely to predict returns, such global risks are more inclined in affecting future risk profile of defense firms.