FINANCIAL VERSUS HUMAN RESOURCES IN THE GREEK–TURKISH ARMS RACE 10 YEARS ON: A FORECASTING INVESTIGATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

This paper looks into the Greek–Turkish arms race a decade after an earlier contribution to the issue that relied heavily on artificial neural networks. The time period between the two papers contributes to the reliability of the results derived, not just by increasing the number of observations, but also mainly by incorporating the progress made in the realm of artificial intelligence. The focus on the case of both countries unlike the paper mentioned above that dealt with just the Greek side provides ample room for comparative purposes regarding the determinants of defense expenditure on both sides. The results derived in terms of input significance estimation support the findings of the earlier research as indicated above, pointing to the leading role of the demographic preponderance of Turkey over Greece. The paper also points to the fact that 10 years later, Turkey continues to set the arms race rules against its rival by determining the defense expenditure of Greece, whereas the role of the latter in affecting the military spending of Turkey is non‐existent.     

基于最优Morlet小波的全信息能量熵提取及其在滚动轴承状态监测中的应用

为利用振动信号中隐含的冲击特征成分来反映轴承性能退化趋势,综合利用小波变换技术和全信息技术,提出一种基于最优Morlet小波变换的全信息能量熵提取方法．以最小Shannon熵优化Morlet小波形状参数,通过多源振动数据的小波变换系数,利用信息熵综合反映冲击特征能量在不同频带分布差异．滚动轴承全寿命数据的应用结果表明,全信息能量熵的变化趋势能够监测轴承状态的劣化过程,而伴随的早期故障检测可以提高轴承使用的安全性．     

基于权重灰色关联分析的装甲车辆发动机使用状态评价研究

为综合预测装甲车辆发动机使用寿命,应用相关性分析构建发动机使用影响因素指标体系,进行指标权重计算．提出并应用权重灰色关联分析方法,定量评价装甲车辆发动机使用状态,定义并计算发动机使用条件修正系数,得到发动机使用影响因素指标权重集,以及不同使用条件下发动机使用寿命预测计算方法．     

运载火箭随机振动环境试验条件的变带宽设计方法

针对运载火箭随机振动环境试验条件提出了基于能量等效思想的变带宽设计方法,通过采用分数倍频程数据处理方法,并确保各个频带内的均方根值与原随机振动环境的均方根值相同,有效解决传统的等带宽随机振动环境试验条件总均方根过高的问题。为了验证所提方法的有效性,通过典型管路产品进行了随机振动响应计算。结果表明,该方法既能够有效地对产品进行考核,又不至于对产品造成过考核。所提变带宽设计方法可为运载火箭随机振动环境条件的合理设计与分析提供有效手段。     

Budget allocation under uncertainty and the costs of war and insecurity

This study presents a framework and models for the analysis of government budget allocation into defense and civilian expenditures in situations of uncertainty about the incidence of war. The models display the intricate relationships between security levels, subjective probabilities of the occurrence of war, and potential war damages. We show that poor countries tend to perceive greater probabilities of war than their richer rivals, and that the psychological burden of insecurity is larger when the country’s wealth is larger and when its preference for security is higher. We apply our models to the Israeli–Syrian arms race and show that the higher rate of growth of Israel’s gross domestic product relative to that of Syria is expected to lead to an increase in Syria’s perception of the likelihood of war and to a decrease in Israel’s perception of such a likelihood. We also show that if Syria’s regime becomes ideologically more extreme, the monetary cost of maintaining Israel’s security at the level that it enjoyed prior to the change will be very high, whereas the monetary cost of maintaining Israel’s welfare will be moderate.     

基于Mamdani模糊推理的核动力装置技术状态评估

分析了传统二元逻辑应用于核动力装置部分失效技术状态评估时的局限性,概述了Mamdani模糊推理的基本技术;结合状态评估实例,提出了基于Mamdani模糊推理的核动力装置系统级的技术状态评估方法,为系统部分失效的技术状态评估提供了一种新的技术途径。     

基于状态的维修及其决策模型研究

在分析各种传统维修方式优缺点的基础上,研究了基于状态的维修(Condition Based Maintenance,CBM)中现行的几个技术标准IEEE Std 1451、IEEE Std 1232和ISO 13373-1,并着重分析了CBM开放系统体系结构OSA-CBM的7大组成模块,指出了未来CBM的发展应集中于OSA-CBM的第5、6模块的研究。针对这2个模块,给出了一种利用建立数学模型进行装备健康预测及维修决策支持的可行的研究思路和结构框架。     

小波分析和神经网络结合的变速箱状态识别

针对变速箱故障信号的非平稳和时变特性，提出了小波分析和神经网络结合的变速箱状态识别方法。为了验证该方法的有效性，试验模拟了某型车辆变速箱正常、7216轴承滚动体点蚀及3挡被动齿轮严重磨损3种状态，以箱体振动信号作为分析信号，首先对信号应用小波阈值法降噪减少干扰，接着将小波分解系数单子带重构得到不同频带的信号分量，提取各频带能量作为特征向量输人神经网络进行状态识别，结果表明该方法能有效识别变速箱的3种状态。     

机械状态振动烈度监测方法研究

介绍了振动标准和振动测量的基本现状,分析了振动烈度的时域和频域计算方法,后者对信号类型的适用性强,对计算频率范围的选择灵活,避免了利用微积分进行信号类型转换和滤波等复杂处理,通过实例给出了应用振动烈度监测机械设备状态的注意事项。     

基于CLOUD-TFN-AHP-α的健康状态评估方法

针对复杂装备维修管理中仅以部件的技术状态确定系统状态的不足,构建基于CLOUD-TFN-AHP-α的系统级健康状态评估框架。在此基础上,首先研究基于系统健康度概念的健康状态等级量化描述方法;然后运用云模型评估子系统健康状态,借助TFN-AHP评估系统健康状态,最后采用惩罚函数修正评估结果。以期为获得合理、准确的复杂装备健康状态提供定量依据。