长管水击最大水击压强的解析

从管道水击微分方程的特征分析入手,提出了水击特征方程的黎曼不变量和网格分析解,建立了管道水击问题的近似解析解,给出了长管水击最大水击压强的计算表达式。通过实际算例对解析解和数值解结果进行了比较。对水击微分方程的重力项也进行了讨论。     

A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004     

зрлaнгa分布及其在保障性数据分析中的应用

首先对（?）分布的特点进行了分析,其次运用极大似然法对其分布参数t_0进行了估计,然后通过2个实例验证了这种分布的可行性和实用性,最后得出几点结论。SS     

Estimating component characteristics from system failure‐time data

Suppose that failure times are available from a random sample of N systems of a given, fixed design with components which have i.i.d. lifetimes distributed according to a common distribution F. The inverse problem of estimating F from data on observed system lifetimes is considered. Using the known relationship between the system and component lifetime distributions via signature and domination theory, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator _N(t) of the component survival function (t) is identified and shown to be accessible numerically in any application of interest. The asymptotic distribution of _N(t) is also identified, facilitating the construction of approximate confidence intervals for (t) for N sufficiently large. Simulation results for samples of size N = 50 and N = 100 for a collection of five parametric lifetime models demonstrate the utility of the recommended estimator. Possible extensions beyond the i.i.d. framework are discussed in the concluding section. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Asymptotic properties of imperfect repair models and estimation of repair efficiency

The aim of this articles is to study the asymptotic behavior of two imperfect repair models, called Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity and Arithmetic Reduction of Age models. These models have been proposed by Doyen and Gaudoin (Reliab Eng Syst Safe 84 (2004) 45–56) and include many usual virtual age models. First, it is proved that the failure intensity of these models is asymptotically almost surely equivalent to a deterministic increasing function with a cumulative error proportional to a logarithm. Second, the almost sure convergence and asymptotic normality of several estimators of repair efficiency are derived, when the wear‐out process without repair is known. Finally, the coverage rate of the asymptotic confidence intervals issued from those estimators is empirically studied. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

一种差分空时分组码及其性能分析

文中介绍了一种差分空时分组码的编译方法及其性能分析,与之对比,先导入单天线时差分调制的概念及其方法,理论分析表明,采用无需信道估值的差分空时分组码与相干检测空时分组码相比其性能差3 dB,但与单天线相比仍有接近于10 dB的分集增益。     

混合指数分布模型的Bayes分析

针对截尾试验数据的情况,给出了二元混合指数分布模型的平均寿命和可靠性函数的严格的Ｂａｙｅｓ点估计,并运用最大熵准则给出了可靠性函数的近似的Ｂａｙｅｓ置信下限估计。     

Progressive Type‐II censoring and coherent systems

A new connection between the distribution of component failure times of a coherent system and (adaptive) progressively Type‐II censored order statistics is established. Utilizing this property, we develop inferential procedures when the data is given by all component failures until system failure in two scenarios: In the case of complete information, we assume that the failed component is also observed whereas in the case of incomplete information, we have only information about the failure times but not about the components which have failed. In the first setting, we show that inferential methods for adaptive progressively Type‐II censored data can directly be applied to the problem. For incomplete information, we face the problem that the corresponding censoring plan is not observed and that the available inferential procedures depend on the knowledge of the used censoring plan. To get estimates for distributional parameters, we propose maximum likelihood estimators which can be obtained by solving the likelihood equations directly or via an Expectation‐Maximization‐algorithm type procedure. For an exponential distribution, we discuss also a linear estimator to estimate the mean. Moreover, we establish exact distributions for some estimators in the exponential case which can be used, for example, to construct exact confidence intervals. The results are illustrated by a five component bridge system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 512–530, 2015     

复杂系统维修性综合评估技术

分析了复杂系统使用期间维修性水平动态变化特点,研究了复杂系统在使用中维修性数据特点、类型和分布确定方法,建立了复杂系统使用期间维修性指标综合评估模型,提出了维修性增长极大似然评估方法,为复杂系统维修性指标计算和评估提供参考。     

LRE试车数据挖掘中基于最大散度差的模糊聚类分析方法

在对液体火箭发动机试车数据进行聚类分析时,为解决故障数据样本与正常样本类间差异不大的问题,引入最大散度差准则,提出基于最大散度差的聚类算法MSD-CA.该算法以散度度量样本间的相似性,使样本的类内散度最小化和类间散度最大化同时进行.在此基础上,应用模糊理论对最大散度差准则进行模糊化,提出基于最大散度差的模糊聚类算法MS...