基于状态评估的复杂系统任务维修性评估

以任务成功性为基础,提出了任务维修性的概念。分析了复杂系统任务维修性评估的一般过程,研究了任务维修性评估的基本方法,在基于相关部件状态评估的基础上,提出将并联功能单元视为一个整体来进行任务维修性评估的思想。最后通过示例应用表明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

基于系统效能的可靠性维修性指标确定方法

为了使航空装备可靠性、维修性指标研究工作更加符合作战需求,在明确了效能及系统效能概念的基础上,结合系统效能评估模型E=ADC提出了基于系统效能的可靠性、维修性指标定量要求,并用图形体现。同时,定量分析了使用可用度、可信度及系统效能增长对可靠性、维修性指标的影响。     

基于设计参数综合评价决策的维修性设计方案优选方法

针对维修性设计方案的评估优选问题进行分析,给出一种改进的设计参数综合评价优选方法.考虑到维修性设计因素评价的不确定性和模糊性的特点,采用集对分析理论对维修性设计因素的模糊语言值评价进行处理,并将层次赋权方法引入方案贴近度评估决策模型,以提高方案优选的可信性.最后以某航天器电源系统的维修性设计方案优选为例说明了该方法的应...     

地(舰)空导弹测试系统维修性设计的实践与思考

导弹测试系统是由多种设备组合而成,其功能是对导弹进行综合测试。导弹测试系统是多次反复使用的设备,维修性是其重要设计指标之一。从导弹测试系统维修性设计指标要求出发,就导弹测试系统维修性设计的有关问题进行论述,提出了设计中应重视的问题。     

RMS特性的武器装备系统效能评估模型

以常用的系统效能定义为基础,提出了一个基于可靠性维修性保障性即RMS特性的系统效能综合评估参数ERMS,建立了在执行任务期间可修复和不可修复两种典型的系统效能评估模型,并给出ERMS的表达式,最后科学地提出利用该参数进行RMS综合设计分析的基本方法.     

防空导弹武器系统维修性剖析

防空导弹武器系统维修性不仅是总体设计中的重要课题,而且是面向装备和使用的工程技术问题。本文分析了武器系统维修性各方面的具体问题,指出美国＂爱国者＂和俄罗斯＂Ｃ－３００＂系统维修体制特点,并提出对维修性研究的对策。     

性能试验阶段装甲车辆维修性定性指标综合评价

为满足性能试验阶段装甲车辆维修性评定的任务需求,提出了一种基于组合赋权法与物元可拓模型的性能试验阶段装甲车辆维修性定性指标综合评价方法。在构建性能试验阶段装甲车辆维修性定性评价指标体系的基础上,通过组合赋权法将订购方与使用方分别基于层次分析法给出的指标权重进行集成,得到了指标的综合权重,并进一步与物元可拓模型相结合,给出了性能试验阶段装甲车辆维修性定性指标综合评价结果。实例应用结果表明该方法合理、有效,为性能试验阶段装甲车辆维修性定性指标综合评价提供了参考与思路。     

复杂系统的MTTR建模研究

现代武器系统的结构越来越复杂,在进行系统修复前,系统往往发生多个故障的情况,致使原来的维修性模型不能完全地反映系统的维修性水平。针对多重故障的维修,推导出一种能反映这种情况下的维修性预计的平均修复时间(MTTR)数学模型。模型中的一次维修事件由原来的只进行单一故障维修扩展到可以对多个不同故障进行维修的情况,更好地反映了复杂系统的实际维修情况。通过实例验证了该模型能实际地反映出复杂系统的维修性情况,从而更加准确地预计出系统的维修性水平。     

基于体系仿真大数据的效能评估方法

随着复杂系统仿真技术、计算能力和数据管理能力的发展,仿真数据逐步呈现大数据特点,评估指标之间也存在高维度、高冗余、高相关等突出问题。结合上述背景,分析了基于体系仿真的效能评估问题研究现状,介绍了深度学习技术的研究进展。指出采用合理的指标约简方法、使用高效的神经网络模型进行效能评估是下一步的研究重点。     

面向体系效能评估的仿真实验因素与指标选择研究

基于体系复杂系统的特点,引入复杂系统思想,从体系涌现性能力形成的机理出发,明晰了面向体系效能评估的仿真实验因素与指标选择的基本原则,构建了体系效能评估指标框架,提出了对指标进行“测量”的方法,丰富了实验因素选择的参量空间,梳理了体系效能评估因素与指标的选择流程,并以某防空反导体系效能评估仿真实验的因素与指标选择为例,验证了方法与流程的合理性.     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.