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361.
We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014 相似文献
362.
Benjamin Deruelle 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2014,25(4):754-766
The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment. 相似文献
363.
Charles Esdaile 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2014,25(4):814-827
The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them. 相似文献
364.
弹药库防静电方法研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
根据弹药库静电危险场所的分类等级,以形成静电危害的3个基本条件为依据,讨论了弹药库防静电危害常用措施:设施设备静电接地、防静电工作台、人体静电防护、铺设导电(或防静电)地面以及各自防静电要求.这些措施为防止和消除弹药库的静电危害提供了根本保障. 相似文献
365.
2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。 相似文献
366.
研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的. 相似文献
367.
We give necessary and sufficient conditions based on signatures to obtain distribution‐free stochastic ordering properties for coherent systems with exchangeable components. Specifically, we consider the stochastic, the hazard (failure) rate, the reversed hazard rate, and the likelihood ratio orders. We apply these results to obtain stochastic ordering properties for all the coherent systems with five or less exchangeable components. Our results extend some preceding results. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011 相似文献
368.
369.
潘洁 《武警工程学院学报》2011,(2):59-62
在理论方面,短肢剪力墙的研究尚处在探索阶段,缺少系统的研究,有关短肢剪力墙结构的轴压比对抗剪性能的影响分析还很不完善。在理论分析的基础上,确定了用以判断构件大、小偏压状态的界限轴压比,得到了为保证T形截面短肢剪力墙构件具有一定延性的轴压比限值。 相似文献
370.